In a recent interview, President Zelensky revealed that Belarusian President Lukashenko apologized for Belarus’ involvement in the war, claiming he was not responsible for Russian missile launches from Belarusian territory. Zelensky rejected this apology, calling Lukashenko a murderer for allowing such attacks. Despite this apology and lack of direct military involvement in the full-scale invasion, Belarus continues to allow Russia to station troops and missiles on its soil, including the recently deployed Oreshnik missile systems. This complicity comes as Lukashenko faces an upcoming presidential election, expected to secure him a seventh term.
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On January 5th, 2025, over 160 prominent Ukrainian figures released an open appeal, “Do Not Appease Evil,” to global leaders. The appeal argues that Russia’s war aims extend beyond territorial gains, seeking to dismantle the existing world order. It warns against a negotiated peace that cedes Ukrainian territory, asserting this would embolden aggressors and destabilize global security. Conversely, a decisive defeat of Russia’s aggression is presented as crucial for restoring global stability and averting wider conflict.
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President Aliyev, meeting with families of victims and survivors of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 crash, stated that the investigation’s initial findings place blame for the tragedy on Russian Federation representatives. He asserted Azerbaijan’s demand for justice, punishment of those responsible, and full transparency in the process. While withholding full details of the ongoing criminal case, the president emphasized the Azerbaijani government’s commitment to accountability. This demand for justice stems from the loss of Azerbaijani lives in this disaster.
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Zelenskyy asserts that the Budapest Memorandum’s security guarantees proved worthless, as its signatory nations failed to act when Russia violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Despite repeated appeals for consultations following Russian aggression, no meaningful response was received, highlighting the unreliability of such agreements. He emphasizes the need for concrete, credible security guarantees, not merely symbolic assurances, to ensure future peace. This underscores the need for a more robust system to prevent similar failures in the future.
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After the loss of the Tartus naval base in Syria, Russia’s submarine presence in the Mediterranean Sea has reportedly vanished. This development carries significant implications for Russia’s naval power projection in the region, significantly limiting its strategic capabilities. The loss of this crucial facility, which served as a vital support hub for Russian submarines operating in the Mediterranean, leaves a noticeable gap in their operational reach.
The absence of Russian submarines from the Mediterranean raises questions about their future operations in the area. Without Tartus, the logistical challenges of maintaining a submarine presence become considerably more difficult. Maintaining submarines far from their home bases requires extensive support, including resupply, maintenance, and crew rotations.… Continue reading
Following a January 1st halt in Russian gas supplies, Transnistria rejected Moldova’s offer to facilitate gas purchases from European markets. The region’s authorities cited concerns about higher and unstable European prices, instead anticipating a resumption of Gazprom deliveries under their existing contract. This decision comes despite widespread gas outages affecting thousands and prompted rolling blackouts, forcing reliance on dwindling electricity reserves. While these reserves are projected to last until winter’s end, increased electricity consumption due to the gas shortage may accelerate depletion.
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Overnight on January 4th, drones attacked Russia’s Ust-Luga seaport in Leningrad Oblast, a significant distance from the Ukrainian border. While most drones were intercepted, resulting in minor damage and no casualties, the attack targeted the Novotrans terminal, a key logistical hub. This incident follows a similar attack on a gas-condensate plant at the same port in late January, highlighting continued Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian supply lines deep within its territory. The scale of the port makes it a high-value target.
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Russia has rejected proposed plans from President-elect Trump’s team to end the war in Ukraine, deeming them uninteresting. These plans, reportedly including delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership, have been dismissed by both the Russian UN ambassador and Foreign Minister Lavrov. Moscow maintains its previously stated conditions for ending the conflict, which include the full occupation of four Ukrainian regions and Ukraine’s rejection of NATO membership. Experts suggest that Russia’s unwillingness to negotiate over its core objectives casts doubt on the feasibility of a swift resolution, even with a new U.S. administration.
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A Moscow court ordered Yandex to remove or alter images of the Ryazan Oil Refinery from its maps and photo services within one month. This action, prompted by a supervisory authority citing national security concerns, follows multiple Ukrainian drone attacks on the refinery in 2024. The court determined that publicly accessible imagery compromised Russia’s defense capabilities and fuel supply to the military. Yandex was fined, and the ruling reflects broader concerns about the vulnerability of Russia’s energy infrastructure to Ukrainian attacks.
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Russia’s halting of gas supplies to Transnistria, a Moldovan breakaway region, has immediately shut down all industries except food production. This action follows Ukraine’s refusal to renew a gas transit deal with Russia, leaving Transnistria, despite its ties to Moscow, critically short on energy. The region’s leader reported limited gas reserves and has switched the main power plant to coal. Moldova offered to help Transnistria procure gas from Europe, but at market prices, unlike the previous subsidized Russian supply. The situation underscores Europe’s reduced reliance on Russian energy and increased diversification of its sources.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood