Putin’s recent declaration that “everything will be fine” rings remarkably hollow in the face of Russia’s escalating challenges. The assertion feels jarringly detached from the grim reality on the ground, a reality painted in the stark hues of significant military setbacks and mounting economic woes. The ongoing war in Ukraine, a self-inflicted wound of immense proportions, continues to drain Russia’s resources and manpower, costing the country a generation of young men. The loss of allies, such as in Syria, further isolates Russia on the global stage, compounding the already precarious geopolitical situation.
The economic consequences are equally troubling. The loss of significant gas revenue due to severed pipelines to the European Union represents a substantial blow to the Russian economy, adding to existing strains caused by sanctions and the war effort.… Continue reading
In a New Year’s Eve attack, Russia launched 111 drones targeting Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted most, but one civilian was killed and damage inflicted. President Zelensky expressed condolences and gratitude to the military and emergency services for their tireless efforts. The successful defense involved the downing of 63 drones and the disruption of 46 decoys.
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In response to election interference attempts, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Iranian and Russian entities. These entities, linked to the IRGC and GRU respectively, allegedly sought to influence the 2024 election through disinformation campaigns and the creation of deepfakes targeting the U.S. electorate. Both Iran and Russia denied the allegations. The sanctions highlight the U.S.’s commitment to safeguarding its democratic processes from foreign interference.
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An investigation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ 3rd Assault Brigade uncovered evidence of Russian soldiers, under the orders of Oleg Igorevych Rudakov, targeting and harming civilians in Nevske, Luhansk region. Intercepted communications reveal Rudakov directing the killing and torture of civilians and the destruction of civilian vehicles. This follows a pattern of Russian forces violating international humanitarian law, as evidenced by a separate incident in Toretsk where two civilians were killed. The collected evidence, including phone recordings and radio transmissions, will be used as potential evidence in international war crimes proceedings.
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Leaked Russian military documents reveal 160 prioritized targets in Japan and South Korea, including both military and civilian infrastructure. These targets, detailed in training materials from 2008-2014, range from airfields and naval bases to nuclear power plants and transportation networks. Targeting civilian infrastructure in this manner would constitute a war crime. While the documents are dated, an expert suggests the core strategic elements likely remain relevant to current Russian planning.
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Following the expiration of a key transit deal, Ukraine halted the flow of Russian natural gas through its territory to Europe. This expected, yet symbolically significant move comes after Europe significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas. While Ukraine will lose approximately $800 million annually in transit fees, and Gazprom faces a near $5 billion loss in sales, Europe has prepared for this scenario by securing alternative supply routes and boosting LNG imports. Despite some potential short-term price fluctuations, major disruptions are deemed unlikely due to these preparations and a mild start to winter.
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Gazprom will halt natural gas supplies to Moldova’s Transnistria region starting January 1, 2025, citing unpaid debts by Moldovagaz. This decision, announced on December 28th, will reduce gas supplies to zero cubic meters per day until further notice. While Moldova has secured alternative gas supplies for its own consumption, Chișinău rejects responsibility for Transnistria’s debt and the termination further complicates already strained energy relations between Russia and Moldova. This action comes as Ukraine refuses to renew the transit agreement for Russian gas to Europe, effective January 1st, 2025.
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A Russian Il-96 aircraft, belonging to the Rossiya Special Flight Squadron responsible for transporting high-ranking officials, traveled from Moscow to Washington D.C. in late December. Russian officials described the flight as carrying a diplomatic rotation, downplaying its significance. This visit occurred amidst severely strained U.S.-Russia relations, heightened by the ongoing war in Ukraine and speculation surrounding President-elect Trump’s potential dealings with Vladimir Putin. The flight’s purpose remains unclear, though it adds to the ongoing tension between the two nations.
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Following a previously agreed-upon October 2024 agreement, Russian border guards withdrew from the Agarak checkpoint on the Armenia-Iran border on January 1, 2025, leaving Armenian forces in sole control. This marks a significant step in Armenia’s reduced reliance on Russian security, following a similar Russian withdrawal from Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan five months prior. The Russian presence at Agarak dated back to 1991. This action underscores Armenia’s broader shift away from its longstanding close relationship with Russia.
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Ukraine has identified Artyom Tareyev, a Russian officer, as the suspected perpetrator of a massacre of civilians in Bucha, a Kyiv suburb, during the 2022 Russian occupation. The Bucha city council alleges that Tareyev directly ordered his troops to kill civilians near Yablunska and Vodoprovidna streets on March 5th, 2022, resulting in the deaths of at least thirteen individuals. This includes Iryna Filkina, whose heartbreaking image – a lifeless hand with bright red nail polish – became a potent symbol of the atrocities committed in Bucha.
The identification of Tareyev comes amidst ongoing investigations into the Bucha massacre, a horrific event that shocked the world and became synonymous with the alleged war crimes perpetrated by Russian forces.… Continue reading
Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker