Following the expiration of a key transit deal, Ukraine halted the flow of Russian natural gas through its territory to Europe. This expected, yet symbolically significant move comes after Europe significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas. While Ukraine will lose approximately $800 million annually in transit fees, and Gazprom faces a near $5 billion loss in sales, Europe has prepared for this scenario by securing alternative supply routes and boosting LNG imports. Despite some potential short-term price fluctuations, major disruptions are deemed unlikely due to these preparations and a mild start to winter.
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Gazprom will halt natural gas supplies to Moldova’s Transnistria region starting January 1, 2025, citing unpaid debts by Moldovagaz. This decision, announced on December 28th, will reduce gas supplies to zero cubic meters per day until further notice. While Moldova has secured alternative gas supplies for its own consumption, Chișinău rejects responsibility for Transnistria’s debt and the termination further complicates already strained energy relations between Russia and Moldova. This action comes as Ukraine refuses to renew the transit agreement for Russian gas to Europe, effective January 1st, 2025.
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A Russian Il-96 aircraft, belonging to the Rossiya Special Flight Squadron responsible for transporting high-ranking officials, traveled from Moscow to Washington D.C. in late December. Russian officials described the flight as carrying a diplomatic rotation, downplaying its significance. This visit occurred amidst severely strained U.S.-Russia relations, heightened by the ongoing war in Ukraine and speculation surrounding President-elect Trump’s potential dealings with Vladimir Putin. The flight’s purpose remains unclear, though it adds to the ongoing tension between the two nations.
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Following a previously agreed-upon October 2024 agreement, Russian border guards withdrew from the Agarak checkpoint on the Armenia-Iran border on January 1, 2025, leaving Armenian forces in sole control. This marks a significant step in Armenia’s reduced reliance on Russian security, following a similar Russian withdrawal from Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan five months prior. The Russian presence at Agarak dated back to 1991. This action underscores Armenia’s broader shift away from its longstanding close relationship with Russia.
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Ukraine has identified Artyom Tareyev, a Russian officer, as the suspected perpetrator of a massacre of civilians in Bucha, a Kyiv suburb, during the 2022 Russian occupation. The Bucha city council alleges that Tareyev directly ordered his troops to kill civilians near Yablunska and Vodoprovidna streets on March 5th, 2022, resulting in the deaths of at least thirteen individuals. This includes Iryna Filkina, whose heartbreaking image – a lifeless hand with bright red nail polish – became a potent symbol of the atrocities committed in Bucha.
The identification of Tareyev comes amidst ongoing investigations into the Bucha massacre, a horrific event that shocked the world and became synonymous with the alleged war crimes perpetrated by Russian forces.… Continue reading
Leaked Russian military documents from 2013-2014, obtained by the Financial Times, detail target lists for a potential war with Japan and South Korea, including 160 sites such as nuclear power plants and key infrastructure. These plans, focusing on disrupting troop movements, highlight Russia’s strategic concerns about its eastern borders and potential vulnerabilities in a conflict with NATO. The documents, originating from the Russian Armed Forces’ Combined Arms Academy, also reveal insights into Russian nuclear weapons doctrine and wargame scenarios involving China and Europe. The targeting of civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, suggests a willingness to engage in widespread destruction. The FT notes that the plans’ overestimation of Russian missile capabilities is now evident.
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A drone attack on December 31st ignited a fire at an oil depot in Yartsevo, Russia’s Smolensk region, approximately 500 km from Kursk. Smolensk Governor Vasily Anokhin confirmed the incident, attributing the fire to drone debris causing a fuel spill. This attack, one of several recent Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, aims to disrupt Russia’s war effort by reducing oil production, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2005. The use of long-range weapons in these deep strikes is enabled by President Biden’s authorization.
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Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warns that Russia’s hybrid attacks against NATO, encompassing sabotage, cyberattacks, and assassination attempts, “look like war.” He stresses the urgent need for NATO to establish clear red lines and define retaliatory measures to deter further aggression. Landsbergis expresses concern that NATO’s current response is insufficiently swift and decisive, potentially emboldening Russia. He suggests that a sufficiently severe hybrid attack could even trigger an Article 5 response.
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Finnish investigators discovered a nearly 100km seabed trail near a damaged underwater electricity cable, linking the damage to the Russian-linked ship *Eagle S*. The *Eagle S*’s anchor is believed to be responsible, causing damage to the Estlink 2 cable connecting Finland and Estonia. This suspected act of sabotage, which will take months to repair and increase Estonian electricity prices, follows a pattern of similar incidents targeting underwater infrastructure. While the crew of the *Eagle S* consisted of Georgian and Indian nationals, the ship’s recent docking in Russia and its suspected cargo of Russian oil products point towards potential Russian involvement.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood