Former President Donald Trump is facing scrutiny for posting employment data on Truth Social a day before its official release, potentially violating embargo rules. The post, which included figures from the upcoming jobs report, was labeled by some as an attempt to distract from economic issues. While a White House official acknowledged the “inadvertent public disclosure,” they also stated that the focus should remain on Trump’s economic policies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which provided advance access to the data under strict confidentiality, is expected to release its next report in February, and the White House is reviewing its data release protocols.
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The Federal Reserve Chair, Powell, expressed concerns about the accuracy of recent job creation figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) relies on a statistical model to estimate job gains and losses, which has, in recent years, led to overestimations that are later revised. This issue is further complicated by the political response to job reports, with the Trump administration having previously reacted negatively to unfavorable data. There is concern the administration might pressure the BLS to produce more favorable numbers.
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell Says U.S. May Be Drastically Overstating Jobs Numbers, and the implications are significant. It seems the current economic data, particularly the jobs numbers, might not be as rosy as they’ve been painted. This is not just a casual observation; it’s a concern coming from the very top, the head of the Federal Reserve. It’s like a quiet alarm bell, subtly suggesting that the economy’s performance could be less impressive than the official reports indicate.
The crux of the issue boils down to how the Labor Department measures job creation, specifically how it deals with the constant churn of businesses opening and closing.… Continue reading
The September jobs report, delayed due to the government shutdown, revealed a slowing labor market. Revisions to prior months showed that employment in July and August were overstated, with August’s job gains even turning into a loss. The report also indicated a decline in federal employment since January. Despite these economic indicators, a fresh survey shows that a majority of voters have a negative view of the economy.
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Due to the 43-day federal government shutdown, the Labor Department will not release a complete jobs report for October. The department was unable to calculate the unemployment rate and other key numbers because of the shutdown. However, it will release the number of jobs created in October alongside the full November jobs report, which is now scheduled for December 16th. The September jobs report, which will be released Friday, will likely receive extra attention as it is the last full measurement of hiring and unemployment that Federal Reserve policymakers will see before their meeting in December.
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Toyota opens US battery plant, confirms $10 billion investment plan, and the ripples of this announcement are already being felt, even if the plant itself is still relatively new. I can see the impact already, with the influx of construction, and the inevitable housing developments cropping up, changing the landscape. This massive investment promises to transform the local economy and create a significant number of jobs, estimated to reach around 5,000, which is fantastic news for the area.
This is a pretty big deal, and it’s exciting to think about the kind of economic boom this can trigger. It’s a reminder of what the Toyota plant in West Virginia did for that region.… Continue reading
The Jobs Report Is Canceled. Here’s What Private Data Shows.
With the official jobs report sidelined due to the government shutdown, the focus shifts to private sector data, and the picture it paints isn’t exactly rosy. While the labor market hasn’t cratered, the available information suggests a modest weakening since the summer. It appears we’re in a bit of a holding pattern – not a sharp decline, but certainly not a surge of growth. The situation reminds me of treading water; we’re staying afloat, but not exactly making progress.
The data sources offer a mixed bag. Some reports suggest a slight decline in private-sector employment, while others show a modest rebound.… Continue reading
Elizabeth Warren’s demand for the release of the September jobs report, even amidst the ongoing government shutdown, has become a focal point of political tension. It’s not just about the numbers themselves; it’s about the perception of transparency, trust, and the potential for manipulation of critical economic data. The core question is: Can we believe what the government puts out?
The underlying suspicion is that the administration might try to paint a rosier picture of the economy than reality warrants, especially if the figures are unfavorable. This is fueled by concerns that the current administration has systematically eroded the non-partisan nature of government agencies, filling them with loyalists who might be willing to bend the truth.… Continue reading
The August jobs report revealed the weakest labor-market gain in five years, with the unemployment rate rising and long-term unemployment reaching its highest level in nearly a decade. A particularly concerning trend is the rise in Black unemployment, which has disproportionately impacted Black Americans, with unemployment reaching its worst levels since 2021. This downturn is linked to government firings, DEI rollbacks, and specific sector declines, especially in trade, transportation, and manufacturing. Historically, the economic struggles of Black workers often foreshadow broader economic issues, making the current situation a cause for alarm and potential further negative impacts on the economy.
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President Trump’s political strategy hinges on projecting an image of strength and victory to maintain support. Following a disappointing July jobs report, Trump replaced the official overseeing the data to reframe the narrative. However, the August jobs report revealed a meager 22,000 jobs created, significantly less than the previous month, and a downward revision for June. Economists suggest the impact of Trump’s trade policies, specifically tariffs, played a significant role in the economic slowdown, despite the personnel change.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood