Once a region firmly under Moscow’s influence, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are now distancing themselves from Russia. This shift is largely due to Russia’s perceived failure to support Armenia during conflicts with Azerbaijan and its subsequent inability to prevent Azerbaijan from reclaiming territory in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has begun pivoting West, while Azerbaijan strengthens ties with Turkey. This shift is not only impacting Russia’s regional influence, but also cutting off vital channels for sanctions evasion and potentially hampering its war efforts in Ukraine.
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A court in Chișinău sentenced Evghenia Guțul, the head of Moldova’s autonomous Gagauzia region, to seven years in prison for funneling Russian money to the banned Șor Party. Guțul, seen as a Kremlin-linked figure, was found to have directed over $2.4 million in funds from Russia, meant to finance the Șor Party and anti-government protests. This conviction, which Russia has condemned, represents a significant setback for Moscow’s influence in Moldova, coinciding with the country’s deepening ties with the EU and its pursuit of integration with NATO.
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In a new NATO initiative, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark will collectively purchase $1 billion worth of US weapons to aid Ukraine in its war against Russia. The purchases are the first under the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), a mechanism launched by US President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Netherlands will allocate 500 million euros ($577 million), while the three Scandinavian countries will jointly provide $500 million. These funds will provide air defense systems, including munitions to Patriot, anti-tank systems, ammunition and spare parts, and will help Ukraine in its fight to defend itself and ensure European security.
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Russia’s oil and gas revenues experienced a significant decline in July, marking the third consecutive month of decreased income, falling by almost 30% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to decreased mineral extraction tax (NDPI) revenue, with Gazprom’s exports to Europe reaching historic lows. The EU’s sanctions, including a lowered price cap on Russian oil, are contributing to this downturn, forcing the Kremlin to revise its revenue projections. To offset these losses, Russia is reportedly drawing from its National Wealth Fund.
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Putin still has no intention of stopping the Ukraine war, and frankly, that’s hardly surprising. It’s become painfully obvious to everyone, except perhaps a few people who seem to live in an alternate reality. From a purely strategic viewpoint, the whole thing seems incredibly counterproductive. It’s hurting his own demographics, depleting his military’s resources, and providing the West with invaluable insights into how the Russian military actually functions. It’s even prompted large countries to rearm, increasing the very threat he supposedly wants to eliminate.
It’s hard to understand the logic behind this, beyond the obvious. It feels like a terrible waste of life, a pointless bloodshed.… Continue reading
In a significant operation in the Sumy direction, fighters from the “Timur Special Unit” of Ukraine’s HUR successfully halted a Russian advance, inflicting substantial casualties. The HUR reported that at least 334 Russian soldiers were eliminated and over 550 wounded during the operation, which also disrupted the enemy’s supply lines. The operation, which involved multiple Ukrainian units, saw intelligence officers entering enemy rear positions, clearing them, and securing them. Radio intercepts revealed panic among Russian personnel, who refused to engage in offensive actions, resulting in the thwarting of a new offensive attempt in the area.
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In response to US actions, Russia has criticized the imposition of sanctions and tariffs, labeling them a “neocolonial agenda” driven by Washington’s inability to accept a multipolar world. Maria Zakharova, a Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, stated that these measures constitute “politically motivated economic pressure” against nations pursuing an independent path. Russia asserts that these actions contravene free trade principles and are supported by BRICS nations, vowing to deepen cooperation to resist these sanctions. The Russian response followed Donald Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on India, accusing them of selling Russian oil for profit and supporting the war in Ukraine.
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On August 4, the price of Ai-95 gasoline reached a record high on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, exceeding 77,000 rubles per ton. This price surge is attributed to recent Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian oil refineries, particularly the one in Ryazan Oblast. These attacks have damaged facilities, potentially impacting the processing of 40,000 tons of crude oil per day and requiring extensive repairs. This price increase occurs shortly after Russia implemented a gasoline export ban to stabilize the domestic market, with prior bans implemented to address fuel shortages and high prices.
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Following President Trump’s order to reposition two nuclear submarines in response to “provocative” remarks, Moscow responded by urging caution regarding nuclear rhetoric. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated they were “very attentive” to nuclear non-proliferation and downplayed the significance of the submarine deployment, as the U.S. already had submarines on combat duty. The move was prompted by comments from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who characterized Trump’s threats of sanctions as a step towards war. As an Aug. 8 deadline approaches for a Ukraine ceasefire, Trump’s special envoy is expected to visit Russia.
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Following the collapse of the INF Treaty, Russia declared it would no longer adhere to its “self-restrictions” on deploying medium- and short-range missiles. The Russian Foreign Ministry cited a lack of reciprocity and listed alleged violations as justification for this decision. These self-imposed limitations were initially adopted after the U.S. and Russia withdrew from the INF Treaty in August 2019, with each side accusing the other of treaty violations. Consequently, Russia now views the conditions for maintaining its moratorium on these weapons as obsolete.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood