Finland’s discovery of kilometer-long drag marks on the Baltic seabed following damage to an undersea cable is a deeply unsettling event. The sheer scale of the marks strongly suggests an intentional act of sabotage, a conclusion many find unsurprising given the current geopolitical climate. The incident immediately raises serious questions about Russia’s involvement, considering their ongoing conflict with Ukraine and broader global democratic principles.
The suggestion that this is merely accidental damage is frankly unbelievable. The scale and nature of the damage clearly point to a deliberate action, not a simple cable failure. Some have even pointed to the absurdity of attributing the damage to such outlandish explanations as Ukrainian birds or an accidental fall from a window.… Continue reading
Following damage to the Estlink 2 power cable, potentially caused by a Russian vessel, Andriy Yermak warned of escalating Russian hybrid warfare. This could involve provocations near NATO borders, potentially utilizing Russia’s shadow fleet and even North Korean or Iranian proxies. Yermak stressed that failure to act decisively against such actions risks further escalation and emboldens Russia. Previous incidents, including damage to an underwater gas pipeline, highlight the ongoing threat.
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Reported peace proposals from President-elect Trump’s team, involving a delayed Ukrainian NATO accession and European peacekeeping forces, have been rejected by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Lavrov criticized the plan’s suggestion of shifting responsibility for confronting Russia to Europe and the inclusion of European peacekeepers. While Russia awaits official communication from Washington, Lavrov stated a willingness to engage with the incoming Biden administration, contingent on a proactive move from the U.S. Despite President Putin’s stated aim to end the conflict by 2025, Moscow maintains its demands for no territorial concessions and a rejection of Ukraine’s NATO membership.
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The Russian-linked tanker *Eagle S*, seized by Finnish authorities for damaging an undersea cable, was equipped with sophisticated surveillance technology, transforming it into a de facto spy ship. This equipment, also found on a sister vessel, *Swiftsea Rider*, was unusual for a merchant ship and suggests deliberate monitoring of NATO naval activity. The *Eagle S*’s crew, likely aware of the spying, were allegedly threatened into silence. The tankers’ ownership is obscured through complex corporate structures, characteristic of the “dark fleet” known for circumventing sanctions.
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Vladimir Putin rejected a proposed Trump team peace plan that would delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for a decade in exchange for ending the war. Putin’s rejection reiterates his earlier demands, including Ukraine’s permanent neutrality and limitations on its military. Simultaneously, intense fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, with recent Russian gains near Kurakhove offset by Ukrainian successes near Toretsk. The conflict also involves ongoing missile strikes and Ukrainian counter-attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military assets. Japan, meanwhile, pledged $3 billion in non-lethal aid to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets.
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Following suspected sabotage of an undersea power cable linking Finland and Estonia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced plans to bolster its Baltic Sea military presence. Estonia initiated naval patrols to protect its remaining energy cable from Finland, emphasizing its commitment to safeguarding critical infrastructure. Finnish authorities are investigating a Russian-linked oil tanker as a potential suspect in the incident, focusing on the possibility that its anchor damaged the cable. This act of suspected sabotage follows similar incidents affecting undersea telecommunication cables in the region.
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A German-led consortium has delivered 103 Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine, exceeding initial expectations. These tanks, while older models, are crucial for equipping newly formed Ukrainian brigades, as other Western tanks are already assigned. Despite their lighter armor, mitigated by upgrades, the Leopard 1A5s boast reliable firepower and have suffered minimal losses. The continued delivery of these tanks, alongside other military aid, will significantly bolster Ukraine’s fighting capacity.
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German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius advocates for a significant increase in Germany’s defense budget, proposing €80-90 billion annually starting in 2028, to address the escalating security situation stemming from Russia’s actions. He argues that this necessitates amending the debt brake to avoid hindering other crucial government functions. Pistorius also supports potential Bundeswehr deployment as peacekeepers in Ukraine, emphasizing Germany’s responsibilities as a leading NATO and European Union member. However, he stresses that German troops will not be deployed in Ukraine while active hostilities continue.
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In its annual security outlook, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service warned of heightened Russian aggression, citing increased threats against Denmark and NATO. This could manifest as Russian naval escorts for shadow fleet tankers traversing Danish straits, escalating tensions and directly challenging newly implemented insurance checks on Russian oil shipments. Further provocations may include risky behavior towards civilian shipping and aviation, encompassing military exercises near NATO territory and potential GPS jamming. Such actions increase the risk of miscalculation and incidents, particularly in the Baltic and Arctic regions.
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President-elect Trump intends to continue supplying military aid to Ukraine, a decision supported by unnamed sources and seemingly aimed at bolstering Ukrainian defense capabilities in the absence of stronger NATO involvement. This aid strategy, despite Trump’s opposition to Ukrainian NATO membership and desire for a swift end to the conflict, is predicated on achieving “peace through strength.” The plan reportedly includes pressuring NATO allies to significantly increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, a move that would double current requirements. This approach will be further explored through upcoming diplomatic efforts, including a visit by the incoming Special Envoy for Ukraine to Kyiv.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker