Consumer confidence in the U.S. decreased in December, reaching its lowest point since the implementation of tariffs, driven by anxieties about high prices and the effects of President Trump’s trade policies. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 89.1, with short-term expectations remaining stable but below a key recessionary marker. Concerns about prices and tariffs were prominent in the survey responses, while perceptions of the job market also declined, further contributing to the overall decrease in confidence.
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According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence in the economy declined in December, marking the fifth consecutive monthly drop and approaching levels seen when tariffs were implemented. Concerns over high prices and President Trump’s tariffs were significant factors, though short-term expectations for income and job markets remained stable but below levels that could signal a recession. Notably, assessments of the current economic situation plummeted, and perceptions of the job market also worsened, as indicated by a decrease in those saying jobs were plentiful and an increase in those saying jobs were hard to get. AP News reported that despite the overall pessimism, the proportion of those surveyed who thought a recession in the next year was unlikely grew.
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US jobless rate for Blacks and teens surges in November, and that’s a headline that really gets you thinking, doesn’t it? It’s like a signal flashing a warning: things might not be as rosy as they seem, particularly for those on the margins. When you see unemployment climbing for these two groups, it often feels like a harbinger of tougher times ahead, a kind of canary in the coal mine for the broader economy.
I’ve been hearing echoes of this in different corners, and it paints a pretty concerning picture. AI is changing the job landscape, and it seems like entry to mid-level office jobs are already feeling the heat.… Continue reading
In a Friday exit manifesto, Greene criticized the legislature’s inaction during the majority’s first year, specifically regarding healthcare and the failure to address rising costs. She expressed frustration that her bills, mirroring President Trump’s Executive Orders, were ignored. Greene noted the public’s growing skepticism towards political messaging, emphasizing their awareness of personal financial struggles, including debt, rising living expenses, and economic anxieties. She implied that these everyday difficulties contribute to the public’s disillusionment with the political system.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed strong optimism for the U.S. economy in 2026, citing President Trump’s trade deals, tariff agenda, and the recently passed domestic policy package as key drivers. He acknowledged some economic pressures, particularly in the housing sector and the impact of the government shutdown. Bessent also discussed healthcare cost reductions anticipated under the Trump administration. In addition, Bessent advocated for ending the Senate filibuster and voiced support for a U.S.-backed peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
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Trump Is pushing us toward a Crash. It could be 1929 all over again.
The economic landscape under Republican administrations, particularly since 1953, paints a concerning picture. History shows a clear pattern, with a significant number of recessions, a vast majority, beginning under Republican leadership. This context sets the stage for a worrisome present, especially when considering the actions of a figure like Donald Trump. His history of business failures, marked by multiple bankruptcies, raises serious red flags. Could the United States, under his influence, be heading towards a financial catastrophe mirroring the Great Depression?
The potential for a severe economic downturn under Trump’s guidance is a very real possibility, and it’s something that should concern everyone.… Continue reading
The Jobs Report Is Canceled. Here’s What Private Data Shows.
With the official jobs report sidelined due to the government shutdown, the focus shifts to private sector data, and the picture it paints isn’t exactly rosy. While the labor market hasn’t cratered, the available information suggests a modest weakening since the summer. It appears we’re in a bit of a holding pattern – not a sharp decline, but certainly not a surge of growth. The situation reminds me of treading water; we’re staying afloat, but not exactly making progress.
The data sources offer a mixed bag. Some reports suggest a slight decline in private-sector employment, while others show a modest rebound.… Continue reading
Layoffs in the U.S. surged in October to the highest level in 22 years, with over 153,000 job reductions reported, as companies increasingly adopt AI and tighten budgets. This brings the total layoffs this year to 1.1 million, rivaling those seen during the global financial crisis and the pandemic. Despite President Trump’s assertions about the economy, the report highlights a shift in the labor market. The decline in job security and increased job cuts are politically sensitive and come as voters express their economic concerns, as shown by Democratic victories in recent elections.
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October saw a significant surge in U.S. layoff announcements, with over 153,000 job cuts reported, a 175% increase year-over-year. This marks the highest October increase since 2003, driven by factors like AI adoption, softening spending, and rising costs. While major companies are citing AI as a reason for job cuts, the absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the assessment of the labor market’s health. Policymakers and investors are relying on alternative data, but the lack of government figures could hinder crucial economic decision-making and potentially impact future interest rate adjustments.
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A significant portion of the U.S. economy, representing about one-third of the nation’s GDP, is facing recessionary pressures, exacerbated by the ongoing government shutdown. According to Moody’s Analytics, 22 states are either in a recession or at serious risk, with states like Maine, Oregon, and Illinois already experiencing downturns. The shutdown, coupled with pre-existing economic challenges like rising food prices and tariff impacts, is intensifying economic distress, potentially leading to further job losses and reduced benefits for millions of Americans. Economists caution that a prolonged shutdown could have severe repercussions, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into a recession.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood