A drone attack on December 31st ignited a fire at an oil depot in Yartsevo, Russia’s Smolensk region, approximately 500 km from Kursk. Smolensk Governor Vasily Anokhin confirmed the incident, attributing the fire to drone debris causing a fuel spill. This attack, one of several recent Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, aims to disrupt Russia’s war effort by reducing oil production, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2005. The use of long-range weapons in these deep strikes is enabled by President Biden’s authorization.
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Recent reports indicate a Ukrainian drone offensive forced a Russian retreat from the outskirts of Kupiansk, a strategically important railroad hub in the Kharkiv region. This withdrawal, confirmed by the Kremlin-affiliated Rybar Telegram channel, is attributed to disrupted supply lines caused by the drone attacks. The Russian offensive continues elsewhere along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, however, and both sides are simultaneously bolstering their drone production capabilities. This highlights the increasing importance of unmanned aerial vehicles in the ongoing conflict.
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Poland has pledged to increase electricity exports to Ukraine should Slovakia cut off its backup power supply, a move threatened by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. This assurance comes amidst rising tensions over gas transit through Ukraine and Slovakia’s continued reliance on Russian gas. Poland will boost its own energy production to offset any resulting Ukrainian power shortages. The situation is further complicated by the upcoming expiration of a Russian gas transit agreement through Ukraine and the EU’s aim to phase out Russian fossil fuels.
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The United States plans to send a significant $1.25 billion military aid package to Ukraine on December 30th, following a previous $500 million announcement. This substantial aid will include munitions for critical air defense systems like Hawk and NASAMS, alongside Stinger missiles and artillery rounds. The delivery is a direct response to escalating Russian attacks targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, fulfilling President Biden’s promise of increased weapons support. This aid package addresses Ukraine’s urgent need for air defense capabilities amid Russia’s ongoing offensive.
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Following a deadly Azerbaijan Airlines crash in Kazakhstan, Vladimir Putin offered an apology to Azerbaijan, stating the incident occurred in Russian airspace, but avoided taking responsibility. The UK, however, rejected this apology, demanding a full and independent investigation into the incident, citing Russia’s reckless actions as a threat to international security. Multiple sources, including the White House and US military officials, suggest Russian air defenses may have mistakenly shot down the plane. Ukraine also called for a transparent explanation and cessation of disinformation from Russia.
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Zelensky accused Slovak Prime Minister Fico of acting on Putin’s orders to cut off Ukraine’s crucial winter electricity supply, framing the threat as a second energy front against Ukraine. The Ukrainian president asserted that such actions would violate EU energy market rules and damage Slovakia’s relationship with the European community. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry emphasized that electricity supplies are paid for, not charity, and Fico’s threats align him with Putin. Fico’s threat followed a meeting with Putin and stems from Slovakia’s significant reliance on Russian gas despite EU efforts to diversify energy sources.
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Amidst an ongoing dispute over Russian gas transit, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accused Slovak Prime Minister Fico of initiating a second energy front against Ukraine at Russia’s behest. This accusation follows Fico’s threat to retaliate against Ukraine’s planned halt of Russian gas transit by cutting off emergency power supplies. Zelenskyy argues Fico’s actions disregard Slovakia’s role in the EU energy market and harm Ukrainian citizens during ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Slovakia, however, maintains that maintaining Russian gas transit through Ukraine is crucial for its economy, despite reduced reliance on Russian gas across the EU.
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The diary of deceased North Korean special forces operative Gyeong Hong Jong, recovered by Ukrainian SOF in Kursk Oblast, details his deployment to Russia. His entries reveal the dispatch of elite North Korean fighters to aid Russian forces, seemingly as atonement for past transgressions. The diary includes descriptions of both combat tactics, such as drone hunting techniques, and personal reflections on loyalty and duty to Kim Jong Un. These findings corroborate previous US reports of North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
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Ukraine’s limited supply of U.S.-provided ATACMS missiles, estimated at around 50 before authorization for strikes on Russian territory, is dwindling rapidly after a series of attacks on Russian military infrastructure. This depletion, coupled with potential policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration, which opposes the missile transfers, suggests that Ukraine’s ability to conduct such long-range strikes is severely hampered. Replenishment is unlikely due to existing U.S. commitments elsewhere. Despite these strikes, significant escalation with Russia has not yet occurred.
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The U.S. alleges that Russia is deploying approximately 11,000 North Korean soldiers in “human wave” assaults in Ukraine’s Kursk region, resulting in significant casualties. Reports indicate over 1,000 North Korean soldiers have died in the past week alone, with some choosing suicide over capture due to fear of reprisal against their families. These poorly equipped soldiers are being used as expendable assets in futile attacks, while Russia simultaneously faces heavy losses, exceeding 1,500 casualties daily according to British estimates. Both Russia and North Korea deny the deployment.
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John Q. Hosedrinker