Two days before the presidential election, former President Donald Trump spoke at a rally in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, expressing conspiratorial and profanity-laden sentiments. He repeatedly cast doubt on the integrity of the vote, intensified his attacks on Democrats and the media, and made references to reporters and political critics being shot. He suggested he can only lose the election under fraudulent circumstances, despite polling showing a very close race. Trump was previously indicted for attempts to overturn his 2020 election defeat. There are concerns among some Trump allies about prematurely declaring victory on election night, as he did in the 2016 election, which led to months of denial and lies, climaxing in the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection.
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Vikki Westbrook, a Trump supporter in rural North Carolina, remarks the “locked and loaded” sentiment shared amongst fellow Republicans ahead of the 2024 US Presidential election. Many Trump supporters remain convinced that the 2020 election was unjustly taken from Trump and fear similar circumstances in the upcoming election. Trump’s rhetoric continues to intensify amongst his supporters, with one in four believing that if Trump were to lose, he should discredit the election results and do whatever it takes to reclaim the presidency. As Trump tours key swing states before the election, claims of electoral fraud persist despite poll trackers suggesting a neck-and-neck race. The potential for violence remains a concern should Trump not secure a win.
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Former president Donald Trump responded to a surprising poll from the Des Moines Register that indicated favor was swinging towards Kamala Harris in Iowa, a state that was previously 18 points in Trump’s favour. Trump accused the pollster of being biased against him and urged the state’s farmers to support him. This recent poll aligns with reportedly bleak internal polls for Trump and ongoing trends predicting key swing-state races favouring Democrats. GOP strategist Margaret Hoover believes these internal polls are a cause for concern for Trump’s campaign. Democrats are apparently in a strong position to take on incumbents, according to Race to the WH founder Logan Phillips.
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Pollster Ivan Moore predicts that Republican Senator Ted Cruz will lose his Texas Senate seat to Democrat Representative Colin Allred in the upcoming election. The close race could determine which party controls the Senate. Though some recent polls show Cruz leading by between one and seven points, others suggest Allred could outperform him. The Dallas Morning News, the state’s top newspaper by daily circulation, endorsed Allred in a front-page editorial last month, and state politics has been influenced by Democrats in recent electoral cycles. Moore made the bold prediction via Twitter.
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A recent poll prediction showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa has sparked a dramatic shift in election prediction markets. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by highly respected pollster Ann Selzer, found Harris three points up on Trump among likely voters. Consequently, markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt, which had previously favored Trump, saw a decrease in his winning probability. Over $174 million has been traded on Kalshi alone related to the election, and Harris’s chances of victory have increased almost 10 points within the span of a week. Despite another favorable poll for Trump, analysts consider the Selzer survey significant due to the accuracy and credibility of previous results.
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A surprising turnaround in Iowa sees Democrat Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 47% to 44% in a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, despite Iowa’s swing to the right in recent elections. The shift towards Harris is primarily driven by older and politically independent women. Trump however continues to lead with his core base, which includes men, evangelicals, rural residents, and non-college graduates. The poll was conducted from October 28-31 among 808 likely voters, including those who have already voted and those planning to. This development comes as a surprise given the state’s recent electoral history favoring Trump.
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A final poll before Election Day shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump in Iowa by three points, a significant swing from the double-digit lead Trump had over Joe Biden in June. The survey suggests Harris’ popularity surge is partly due to support from older women and independent voters, with her lead among women aged 65 and older being more than two times. Meanwhile, Trump continues to lead among Iowans between 35 and 54 years of age. Democrats aren’t surprised by the poll’s findings, suggesting it aligns with sentiments heard from various voter groups in Iowa. However, the Trump Campaign and Iowa GOP Chair, Jeff Kauffman, dispute the accuracy of this poll, citing an Emerson College poll that shows Trump still leading.
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Donald Trump is reportedly experiencing anxiety and sleep loss due to his concern over polling numbers as he hopes to return to the White House. Trump has been pressuring his staff to work harder to ensure his victory against Vice President Kamala Harris on Election Day. Some of Trump’s fears were alleviated when his chief pollster, Tony Fabrizio, produced a memo suggesting that he was in a stronger position to win the election compared to past campaigns, but there are concerns that bias could be influencing these results. Trump is not the only one in his party worried about voter turnout and the numbers, with Republican figures stressing the importance of male voter turnout in ensuring a Trump win. Meanwhile, Harris’s campaign team predicts a narrow win for her come Tuesday.
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The article predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election against Donald Trump, becoming the first woman and person of Asian heritage to hold the office. To support this forecast, the author notes Harris’s extensive fundraising efforts, her successful campaign, and the demographic diversification in the U.S. The article also mentions the gender gap in voting, according to which Harris has a significant lead over Trump among women. The author acknowledges this prediction could be incorrect but urges readers to vote for Harris to ensure victory.
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US Green Party contender Jill Stein has rejected calls by over a dozen European Green parties to drop out of the US presidential race. They argue she could harm the chances of Joe Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris by splitting the left-wing vote in key states, thus potentially tipping the balance in Donald Trump’s favour. The European Greens wrote in an open letter that the race between Trump and Harris, compared to the 2016 contest, was “too close for comfort”. They also expressed the need for Kamala Harris as the US president to tackle global issues like climate change, and to bring stability to the Middle East. Stein has said she is “categorically not considering” quitting the campaign.
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John Q. Hosedrinker