President Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to a new low, dipping into double-digit negative territory according to RealClearPolling’s national average. This decline follows the longest government shutdown in history, which appears to be fueling public discontent, as evidenced by polls from various organizations. The shutdown has disrupted essential programs like SNAP, impacting millions and leading to accusations of weaponizing hunger. While lawmakers continue to seek a solution to end the shutdown, the president’s approval rating and Republican prospects in the upcoming midterm elections are at stake.
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In a significant shift, a Pennsylvania borough, a Republican stronghold for 113 years, elected Democrat Lincoln Kretchmar as mayor on November 4th. This victory is notable given Pennsylvania’s status as a key swing state, and the recent victory of Donald Trump. The Democrat’s win, fueled by concerns over the cost of living and a desire for government transparency, may signal a broader trend. Should this momentum continue, the GOP could face further losses in the 2026 midterms.
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California voters approved a ballot measure championed by Governor Gavin Newsom, allowing the state to redraw congressional maps and potentially gain up to five House seats, a move seen as a victory against Donald Trump. The proposition was framed as a response to Texas’s redistricting changes and a means for Californians to express disapproval of a second Trump administration. Trump criticized the move, claiming the process was “rigged.” This outcome, alongside Democratic victories in New York, Virginia, and New Jersey, bolstered Newsom’s position and the Democratic Party’s prospects for the upcoming midterms.
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Recent polling data reveals a significant decline in President Trump’s approval among young voters. A YouGov/Economist poll conducted in late October shows a 30-point drop in approval among adults under 30 since February. This decline in support from younger demographics, who were initially attracted to Trump in 2024, could pose challenges for the GOP in the upcoming midterm elections. Moreover, Trump’s handling of the economy, a key factor in his prior appeal to young voters, now carries a significantly negative approval rating.
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During an interview, California Governor Gavin Newsom acknowledged his consideration of a 2028 presidential bid but emphasized his focus on the upcoming midterm elections. Newsom’s comments followed his recent visit to South Carolina and highlighted the importance of his brand on a national stage. While expressing openness to a future run, he also acknowledged potential challenges, including a crowded Democratic primary and a likely conservative opponent. Newsom’s current political strategy involves challenging Republican efforts in redistricting, particularly in response to the actions of the Republican president and his allies.
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Ted Cruz’s recent statements warned of potential dangers in the upcoming midterm elections, despite Republicans having substantive issues to campaign on. He highlighted the Democrats’ fundraising advantage, fueled by opposition to Trump, and the potential for energized voters to influence the election outcome. Cruz expressed concern that complacency among Republican voters could lead to unfavorable results if only one side is highly motivated to vote. While the Senator’s remarks contained familiar rhetoric, the recognition of the Left’s energy and anger signals a focus on the impact of events like the “No Kings” rallies.
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California voters are deciding whether to redraw congressional districts, potentially adding up to five Democrat-held seats in Congress and impacting control of the House. The outcome of this special election, with support from figures like Barack Obama and opposition from Arnold Schwarzenegger, could significantly influence the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race, with implications for national policies. If the proposal is approved, it is possible that Republicans may only hold four House seats in California. The vote is a Democratic gambit to counter Republican moves in Texas and other states, with millions of dollars fueling the campaigns and drawing attention to the future of the House.
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Recent survey data indicates a significant decline in former President Donald Trump’s approval rating among young people aged 18-29, with a 35 percentage point drop since November 2024. This shift potentially reverses the trend observed in the 2024 election, where Trump saw increased support among younger voters, particularly Hispanic voters, due to policies like tariffs and immigration. While some polls show a contrasting improvement, the overall trend suggests that Republicans may struggle to maintain their gains if this decline persists, potentially impacting the 2026 midterm elections. The decline is likely due to the rising cost of living, cultural issues, and perceived self-interest.
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Analysis of aggregated polling data reveals that former President Trump’s approval rating is negative in all seven swing states he won in the 2024 election. These states include Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona, with approval ratings ranging from -7 to -13 percentage points. Declining popularity in these pivotal states could pose challenges for Republicans in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections and potentially shift the balance of power in Congress, as low presidential approval often impacts voter turnout and favors the opposing party. Factors such as economic concerns, including inflation and immigration policies, may contribute to this decline.
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Sources within Donald Trump’s inner circle express concern that the GOP could be severely damaged in the 2026 midterms due to the potential expiration of healthcare subsidies tied to the government shutdown. Officials worry that if the subsidies lapse, leading to increased healthcare costs for millions, voters will blame the Republican party. The White House is considering extending the subsidies, even though Trump has opposed the Affordable Care Act, to mitigate the political fallout. With Republicans holding a slim majority and facing historical trends of midterm losses for the ruling party, the potential for voter backlash on healthcare poses a significant threat to their control.
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John Q. Hosedrinker