Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine utilized over 630 drones, guided bombs, and missiles containing more than 50,000 foreign-made components. These attacks resulted in significant infrastructure damage and civilian casualties. President Zelensky highlighted the inadequacy of current sanctions in preventing Russia’s acquisition of these components, emphasizing the need for stronger sanctions and increased support for Ukraine’s air defenses. He specifically called for bolstering Ukraine’s long-range capabilities. The attacks demonstrate Russia’s continued reliance on global supply chains for weapons production.
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Zelenskyy asserts that the Budapest Memorandum’s security guarantees proved worthless, as its signatory nations failed to act when Russia violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Despite repeated appeals for consultations following Russian aggression, no meaningful response was received, highlighting the unreliability of such agreements. He emphasizes the need for concrete, credible security guarantees, not merely symbolic assurances, to ensure future peace. This underscores the need for a more robust system to prevent similar failures in the future.
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Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces engaging Russian and North Korean troops in multiple locations. While the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled Ukrainian attacks, unofficial reports suggest intense fighting and Ukrainian advances, including the use of armored vehicles and electronic warfare. The fighting, including reported heavy shelling of Sudzha, marks a significant escalation of the conflict and has resulted in civilian casualties.
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Intense fighting near Makhnivka in the Kursk region resulted in the elimination of a Russian battalion comprised of Russian paratroopers and up to an entire battalion of North Korean soldiers, according to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. Ukrainian forces, specifically the Special Operations Forces and the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade, are credited with inflicting these heavy casualties. These losses follow earlier reports of over 3,000 North Korean casualties in the region. Despite ongoing intense fighting across the front, Ukrainian forces are successfully repelling Russian assaults and maintaining their positions. This engagement highlights the significant human cost of the conflict and the continued North Korean support for Russia’s war effort.
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Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk region, resulting in clashes near Berdin and Makhnovka. Ukrainian forces, having initially crossed the border in August, have maintained control of seized territory despite Russian and North Korean counter-efforts. Reports indicate heavy fighting involving tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, with both sides claiming battlefield successes. The conflict, involving an estimated 11,000 North Korean troops, continues amidst conflicting reports and unverifiable battlefield claims.
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Following a January 1st halt in Russian gas supplies, Transnistria rejected Moldova’s offer to facilitate gas purchases from European markets. The region’s authorities cited concerns about higher and unstable European prices, instead anticipating a resumption of Gazprom deliveries under their existing contract. This decision comes despite widespread gas outages affecting thousands and prompted rolling blackouts, forcing reliance on dwindling electricity reserves. While these reserves are projected to last until winter’s end, increased electricity consumption due to the gas shortage may accelerate depletion.
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Intense fighting continues across the Ukrainian front, particularly near Pokrovsk. In recent battles near Makhnovka, Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces inflicted significant losses on the Russian army. These losses included up to a full battalion of infantry, comprised of both Russian paratroopers and North Korean soldiers. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirmed this substantial defeat to President Zelenskyy. The report highlights the heavy toll the conflict is taking on Russian forces.
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Overnight on January 4th, drones attacked Russia’s Ust-Luga seaport in Leningrad Oblast, a significant distance from the Ukrainian border. While most drones were intercepted, resulting in minor damage and no casualties, the attack targeted the Novotrans terminal, a key logistical hub. This incident follows a similar attack on a gas-condensate plant at the same port in late January, highlighting continued Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian supply lines deep within its territory. The scale of the port makes it a high-value target.
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A North Korean offensive toward Kruglenke, utilizing a narrow forest corridor, was decisively repelled by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian drone strikes and automatic grenade launchers inflicted heavy casualties on the densely packed North Korean troops. Despite suffering significant losses, North Korean forces persist in their attacks on Kruglenkoe, viewing it as the only remaining feasible avenue for achieving any offensive gains. The village’s buildings offer much-needed cover from Ukrainian fire, making it a crucial objective. This continued assault, however, is proving exceptionally costly for the North Koreans.
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In 2024, Ukrainian forces lost over 3,600 sq km of territory, significantly exceeding the 540 sq km lost in 2023. The most substantial losses occurred in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, with daily losses exceeding 20 sq km in November. Russian gains included significant advances in the Velyka Novosilka-Ocheretyne and Lyman-Kupiansk areas, as well as territory in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Despite some Ukrainian territorial gains elsewhere, including a brief incursion into Kursk Oblast, Militarnyi forecasts continued Russian pressure along multiple fronts.
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John Q. Hosedrinker