Following reports of a Russian ICBM launch targeting Dnipro, Ukraine, EU officials have expressed serious concern. The use of such a weapon, if confirmed, would represent a significant escalation of the conflict and a potential qualitative shift in the war. While Ukraine claims a high degree of certainty, Western officials remain cautious, with some suggesting the missile may have been a conventional ballistic missile. The incident comes amid heightened tensions, following recent U.S. authorization of Ukrainian strikes within Russia and Russia’s updated nuclear policy.
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Russia’s Ministry of Defense forecasts Ukraine’s demise as an independent state by 2045, proposing annexation of occupied territories, the creation of a pro-Russian puppet state around Kyiv, and leaving western regions’ fate to negotiations with neighboring countries. This plan, aimed at a multipolar world or global chaos, anticipates Russian victory in Ukraine to reshape international politics. Conversely, US or Chinese dominance are considered unfavorable outcomes for Russia, contingent on a Russian defeat or a frozen conflict. While President Trump’s election promises a swift end to the war, concrete plans remain unclear.
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During a November 21st attack on Dnipro, Russia used the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time, alongside Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and Kh-101 missiles. The Rubezh, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, was launched from Astrakhan Oblast. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted six Kh-101 missiles, with no significant damage reported from the remaining strikes. This ICBM launch marks a significant escalation, violating past treaties and defying previous claims regarding its development status.
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Early this morning, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile attack on Ukraine. Simultaneously, six Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles were also launched, though Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted all six. The nature of the ICBM attack and its target remain unspecified in reports. Further details regarding the incident are pending.
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Ukraine successfully targeted a Russian command post in Gubkin, Belgorod Oblast, approximately 168 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This follows President Biden’s authorization of long-range ATACMS missile strikes into Russia, with this attack marking the first confirmed use of these missiles against a Russian command post. Reports indicate significant damage and corroborate Ukrainian claims, despite Russian denials and interception claims. The strike occurred amidst heightened tensions, including the reported deployment of North Korean troops to the Ukrainian front and the closure of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv due to a potential air attack threat.
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Andrew Rettman, EUobserver’s foreign editor since 2005, specializes in foreign and security affairs. A Polish national raised in the UK and currently residing in Brussels, his expertise is reflected in his contributions to prominent publications such as The Guardian, The Times of London, and Intelligence Online. His background provides a unique perspective on European affairs.
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For the first time, Ukraine used British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike a building in the Kursk region of Russia, reportedly targeting a control room housing Russian and North Korean military officials. Debris at the site confirmed the use of Storm Shadow missiles, following recent US authorization for Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles within Russia. Ukrainian defense experts believe the strike involved up to twelve missiles, though the target’s exact nature remains speculative. This action follows previous use of Storm Shadow missiles within Ukrainian territory and signifies an escalation of the conflict.
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Germany’s latest military aid package to Ukraine includes heavy weaponry such as Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers and Gepard anti-aircraft guns, along with significant ammunition supplies and various vehicles. This delivery builds upon Germany’s substantial contributions, making it the second largest military supplier to Ukraine after the U.S. However, planned military aid will be halved in 2025 to €4 billion, despite the current €8 billion allocation for 2024. This reduction comes amid political uncertainty and despite the U.S. allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles, Germany continues to refrain from providing its own Taurus missiles.
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The Biden administration’s authorization of long-range ATACMS strikes inside Russia represents a significant policy shift, potentially bolstering Ukraine’s defense against a large Russian-North Korean force. This action, likely influenced by the upcoming Trump presidency, allows Ukraine to target key Russian infrastructure, such as command centers and logistics, thereby weakening their offensive capabilities. Retired General Ben Hodges emphasizes that while not a “game changer” in itself, the ATACMS authorization is a positive step, although its restricted use remains a concern. However, the long-term impact remains uncertain given President-elect Trump’s stated intentions to quickly end the war, raising concerns about future U.S. support for Ukraine.
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The EU will allocate €1.4 billion from seized Russian assets to fund military equipment for Ukraine, with delivery expected by the end of 2024, followed by an additional €1.9 billion in early 2025. This initiative follows the near-completion of a separate EU program providing Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells. Furthermore, the EU plans a €35 billion loan to Ukraine, with repayment sourced from future revenue generated from frozen Russian assets. Despite Hungarian opposition to some EU military aid initiatives, this significant funding demonstrates continued international support for Ukraine’s defense.
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John Q. Hosedrinker