In July 2023, Swiss P Defence delivered 645,000 rounds of sniper ammunition to a Polish company, which subsequently re-exported it to Ukraine. This action violated Switzerland’s arms embargo and neutrality policy, as the ammunition’s ultimate destination was not disclosed to Swiss authorities. The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has suspended further exports to the Polish company, and an investigation revealed that Swiss P Defence was unaware of the re-export to Ukraine. The ammunition’s use in Ukraine remains unconfirmed.
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In response to Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range missiles, Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, striking Dnipro. President Putin characterized the launch as retaliation and warned of further action against any country aiding Ukraine’s attacks on Russian territory. The Oreshnik, described as hypersonic and capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads, prompted concern from the U.S., which was notified prior to the launch. This incident marks a significant escalation in the conflict, with both sides engaging in increasingly aggressive actions.
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In a recent announcement, President Putin confirmed Russia’s successful test of a new intermediate-range missile. This test involved a strike against Ukraine. The announcement did not provide specifics on the missile’s capabilities or the target location. The test highlights Russia’s ongoing military advancements and escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.
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Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), designated “Oreshnik,” targeting Dnipro, Ukraine. Thirty minutes prior, Russia provided the U.S. with advance notification via nuclear risk reduction channels. This test, confirmed by both U.S. and Russian officials, followed prior U.S. warnings to Ukraine and allies of a potential Russian missile test. The attack, which included other missile types, occurred amidst a nationwide air raid alert.
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A Ukrainian air strike in the Kursk region injured a senior North Korean general fighting alongside Russian forces. This marks the first confirmed injury of a high-ranking North Korean military officer since their deployment. The incident follows reports of at least 10,000 North Korean troops in the region supporting Russian forces and prompted international condemnation. The involvement of North Korean troops is considered a significant escalation, contributing to recent decisions by the US and its allies to provide Ukraine with longer-range weaponry.
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Satellite imagery analysis by the Open Source Centre reveals that Russia has provided North Korea with over one million barrels of oil since March 2024, violating UN sanctions. This oil is believed to be compensation for weapons and troops North Korea has supplied to Russia for its war in Ukraine. These transfers, documented across 43 tanker voyages, represent a significant breach of international agreements and demonstrate a deepening relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang. Experts warn that this oil-for-arms exchange destabilizes regional security and shows disregard for international sanctions.
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Facing intensified Russian attacks and dwindling ammunition, the Ukrainian military increasingly relies on its drone units, which are responsible for at least 80% of Russian frontline losses. A shortage of HIMARS rockets further highlights the ammunition crisis, forcing a greater reliance on drone warfare despite these units becoming prime targets for sophisticated Russian countermeasures. Ukraine’s domestic drone production has surged to meet this demand, exceeding its annual production goal in October, though Western arms supplies remain slow to arrive alongside recruitment challenges. This dependence underscores a critical arms race shaping the conflict.
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The United States imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, the last major Russian bank not previously sanctioned, citing its role in facilitating Russia’s military operations, including equipment purchases and soldier payments. These sanctions target Gazprombank and six subsidiaries, significantly limiting its access to global finance. While the US previously avoided sanctioning the bank to maintain European gas supplies, this decision reflects a shift in energy dynamics and aims to further degrade Russia’s war machine. The sanctions also target over 50 other Russian banks and 15 officials, and warn against participation in Russia’s alternative financial messaging system.
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In response to Ukraine using Western-supplied long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, President Putin announced a test launch of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile. This missile, based on the RS-26 Rubezh ICBM design, is capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads and was used to strike Ukrainian targets. Putin explicitly warned countries supplying Ukraine with weapons that they could become targets, highlighting the escalation of the conflict. Although the U.S. downplayed the impact of this new weapon, the incident represents a significant escalation and a direct warning to Western nations involved in supporting Ukraine. The Biden administration affirmed continued military aid to Ukraine.
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Unconfirmed reports from Ukrainian intelligence suggest a Russian plan to restructure the global order by 2045, potentially involving the partition of Ukraine into three sections: a Russian-annexed east, a contested west, and a Russian puppet state centered around Kyiv. This plan, whose authenticity remains unverified, outlines four possible global scenarios, two favoring Russia’s victory in Ukraine and two depicting its defeat. The alleged document, purportedly from the Russian Defense Ministry, reflects Russia’s broader aim to dismantle the existing global order and diminish U.S. influence. These claims align with previous reports of Kremlin efforts to reshape the international system.
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John Q. Hosedrinker