Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced the allocation of almost 6 billion euros to Ukraine during a speech on November 13th. This funding comes under the ERA loan and the Ukraine Facility, supporting Ukraine’s financial needs for the next two years. The EU is exploring multiple options for sustained financial support, including raising funds in capital markets, an intergovernmental agreement, and a reparations loan based on immobilized Russian assets. This strategy aims to ensure long-term support for Ukraine’s defense and economy, sending a clear message to Russia.
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The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has reported thwarting a series of planned terrorist attacks in Kyiv allegedly orchestrated by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). These attacks were intended to destabilize the capital and included plans for explosions in public spaces and assassinations of prominent Ukrainians. The SBU identified a resident of Crimea, recruited by the FSB, as the organizer of the operation, who traveled to Kyiv to recruit individuals and carry out targeted killings. The alleged recruiter has been charged with high treason, terrorism, and illegal handling of weapons but remains at large in Russian-occupied territory.
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On the night of Nov. 13, Ukraine launched a series of long-range strikes against Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and within Russia, utilizing domestically produced weapons, including Flamingo and Bars missiles. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that “several dozen” targets were hit to degrade Russia’s military and logistical capabilities. Key targets included oil storage facilities, airfields, and command posts, as well as sites inside Russia, the full extent of damage yet to be assessed. The Flamingo missile, lauded by President Zelensky, is reported to have a 3,000-kilometer range, while the company that produces the missile, Fire Point, is currently under investigation for allegedly inflating the value or number of the drones it delivers to the army.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the US has largely exhausted its options for imposing new sanctions on Russia, having already targeted major oil companies. The focus will now shift to enforcing existing sanctions, particularly addressing Russia’s “shadow fleet” of vessels used to circumvent oil restrictions, with a call for greater European involvement in this effort. Rubio also commented on the ongoing conflict, stating Russia’s objectives and the missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Finally, the US is in talks with Ukraine to stabilize its energy grid, discussing the provision of equipment and defensive weapons, while acknowledging the challenges of protecting such infrastructure from destruction.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned of Russia’s preparation for a large-scale war in Europe, potentially starting by 2029 or 2030, citing increased Russian military production and a desire to continue the conflict. Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for increased pressure on Russia, particularly through sanctions, especially targeting energy exports. These warnings align with those of other European leaders, prompting increased defense spending and efforts to bolster Europe’s defense capabilities, despite concerns about readiness and dependence on U.S. security guarantees.
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The discount on Russian Urals crude versus Brent surged to $19.40 per barrel on November 10th, the highest in a year, according to Kommersant citing industry sources. This increase followed new US sanctions targeting Russian energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft. Previously, discounts had reached a peak of $31.90 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022. Key buyers like India and China are reportedly reducing Russian crude imports, and declines in exports have been the steepest since January 2024.
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The skies above Pokrovsk, Ukraine, are heavily saturated with drones, making military movement risky. However, recent foggy weather has allowed Russian forces to infiltrate the city using motorcycles and vehicles, as evidenced by social media footage. Ukrainian military experts estimate a significant Russian troop presence in the city, with a pincer-like strategy underway to encircle Pokrovsk. The constant threat of drones forces both sides to alter logistics and tactics, with Ukrainian forces outnumbered and fighting for control amidst a dwindling civilian population.
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During a recent interview, a co-leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party suggested that Poland poses a similar threat to Germany as Russia, citing differing economic interests and a recent extradition refusal. This statement follows the AfD’s history of downplaying Nazi crimes and its opposition to a memorial for Polish victims of World War II. The comments were quickly condemned by a politician from the Christian Democratic Union. This is not the first instance of criticism against the AfD, as the party has been accused of pro-Russian sympathies and has previously faced controversy for its actions and statements regarding Russia.
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President Zelenskyy received a report from the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, detailing the impact of pressure on Russia’s energy sector. This pressure has resulted in a decline in Russia’s oil production and refining, leading to a decrease in oil and gas revenue. This year Russia will lose at least $37 billion in oil and gas income, limiting their war efforts. Furthermore, Zelenskyy discussed measures for the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia.
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Ukraine’s justice minister was suspended following an investigation into a $100 million kickback scheme within the energy sector, allegedly involving a close associate of President Zelenskyy and a former deputy prime minister. Authorities exposed a “high-level criminal organization” where officials and businesspeople are accused of receiving benefits and laundering money through the state energy company, Energoatom. The probe has led to the arrest of five individuals, with seven others under suspicion, and has prompted Zelenskyy to emphasize the importance of accountability and upholding trust in government. This investigation highlights the ongoing struggle with corruption within Ukraine’s government, even as the country battles to maintain Western support during the war with Russia.
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John Q. Hosedrinker