Urals crude oil prices hit a low of $36.6 per barrel last week, the lowest since early 2023, due to the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian energy giants. The price drop caused discounts relative to Brent to widen significantly, approaching record levels. This decline is largely due to major buyers in India and China halting purchases from sanctioned companies like Rosneft and Lukoil. Consequently, Russia’s seaborne exports have dropped, and an increasing number of oil cargoes are being stored on tankers.
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In a shocking announcement, the Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary group Rusich initiated a contest soliciting photographic evidence of executed Ukrainian prisoners of war, offering cryptocurrency rewards. The call for submissions was made on November 16, 2025, via the group’s social media channels, including a disturbing image depicting a Rusich fighter with deceased individuals, purportedly Ukrainian POWs. This action directly contravenes the Geneva Conventions and constitutes a war crime as defined by the Rome Statute. Leaders, who may have ordered or encouraged these acts, are liable for criminal charges, even without direct involvement.
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Following a suspected Russian drone strike on a Turkish LPG tanker in Ukraine’s Izmail Port, Romania evacuated residents due to the potential for a major explosion. The ship, the “ORINDA,” held up to 4,000 tonnes of LPG and was struck during an overnight attack on the port. Romanian authorities detected the attacks and condemned the strikes, which prompted the evacuation of 15 people from a nearby locality as a precaution. The incident highlights growing concerns about the spillover of the conflict and the risk posed to NATO member states.
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Ursula von der Leyen has urged EU countries to agree by December on a plan to provide Ukraine with €135.7 billion in military and financial aid over the next two years. The European Commission President outlined three potential options, including voluntary member state contributions, joint debt at the EU level, and a reparations loan based on Russia’s frozen assets. While the first two options would increase the fiscal burden, the reparations loan faces legal complexities and concerns about perceptions of confiscation, especially regarding a large sum held in Belgium. Von der Leyen stresses the urgency of a decision, as the EU leaders will meet in December, and suggests that the options can be combined or used sequentially to avoid aid disruption.
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As part of efforts to bolster Ukraine’s long-term security, Ukraine signed a letter of intent to purchase up to 100 Rafale warplanes, drones, air defense systems, and other equipment from France over the next decade. This “historic deal,” as described by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, includes the acquisition of France’s advanced Rafale fighter jets, radars, and SAMP/T air defense systems. The agreement, which starts next year, signifies a strategic commitment to strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities, with training and production programs also included. This comprehensive package aims to equip Ukraine with cutting-edge military technology, supplementing existing support from France and other nations.
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In an effort to revitalize the energy sector, Ukraine has initiated a comprehensive overhaul of management and oversight at key state-owned energy companies. President Zelenskyy, along with the Prime Minister and Economy Minister, outlined a plan combining financial audits with governance changes, including the immediate appointment of new supervisory boards at Energoatom, Ukrhydroenergo, and the Gas Transmission System Operator. A competition to renew the Naftogaz supervisory board will be launched, with the new composition taking effect in January 2026. Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of transparency and integrity, directing officials to collaborate with law enforcement and anti-corruption bodies throughout the process to address any discovered issues.
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Pope Leo XIV has conveyed his sorrow regarding the recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, which have resulted in casualties and infrastructure damage. The Pope expressed solidarity with those affected, urging the world not to become desensitized to the ongoing war and destruction. He concluded with a prayer for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha responded by thanking the Pope for his prayers and emphasizing the importance of global unity in demanding an end to the aggression.
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Finnish President Alexander Stubb predicts that a ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely to be achieved by spring, emphasizing the need for European allies to support Kyiv despite the ongoing corruption scandal. Stubb believes that achieving peace will require addressing security guarantees, economic restoration, and territorial disputes. He called for increased pressure on Russia, suggesting using frozen Russian assets as collateral to finance Ukraine, and also sees himself as a potential intermediary between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.
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The US Treasury Department has opened a pathway for companies to negotiate the purchase of Lukoil’s foreign assets, representing approximately 0.5% of global oil production. This decision, conveyed through updated Russia licenses, allows discussions with the sanctioned Russian oil giant, contingent on severing Lukoil’s control and funneling proceeds into a frozen escrow account. Key licenses include General License 131, which allows asset purchase negotiations, and General License 128A, which allows continued business with Lukoil-branded gas stations outside Russia. This move comes after sanctions were imposed on Russia’s top oil companies and reflects a calibrated approach to isolate Moscow’s oil sector while avoiding disruptions to global energy markets.
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Ukraine has secured gas imports from Greece to support its winter energy needs, as announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky. The agreement provides an additional supply route for the colder months, with Ukraine aiming to secure nearly 2 billion euros to offset production losses due to Russian attacks. Kyiv has allocated funds for gas purchases through European partners and banks, while also working with Polish partners and Azerbaijan to secure long-term contracts. Furthermore, Zelensky announced sweeping reforms across state-owned energy companies following a corruption scandal involving embezzlement, including the immediate overhaul of key enterprises and the establishment of a new supervisory board at Energoatom.
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John Q. Hosedrinker