The United States is opening a new air defense base in Redzikowo, Poland, marking the first permanent U.S. military base in the country. This base, part of NATO’s missile shield, is strategically located near Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and is intended to deter potential threats from Russia and Iran. While the project has been in development for over a decade, its opening comes amidst rising tensions with Russia and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Trump administration. Despite concerns about potential disruptions to NATO’s unity, the base signifies the enduring strength of the U.S.-Poland alliance and highlights the importance of bolstering defenses on NATO’s eastern flank.
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A briefing paper prepared for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence argues that Ukraine could build a rudimentary nuclear bomb within months if the US withdraws military support. The report claims Ukraine could utilize plutonium from spent fuel rods to create a weapon similar to the “Fat Man” bomb, albeit with a significantly lower yield. This move would be predicated on Ukraine withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, as the US’s withdrawal of support would violate the Budapest Memorandum. While western experts estimate a longer development timeline, Ukrainian officials believe a ballistic missile capable of delivering such a weapon could be operational within six months, highlighting the dire situation they face and the possibility of a nuclear deterrent becoming a necessity.
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Since the US Congress approved additional funding for Ukraine in April 2024, the US has delivered a significant portion of the promised military aid, including 83% of ammunition, 67% of air defense capabilities, and 60% of fire capabilities. This includes thousands of artillery shells, armored vehicles, HIMARS rockets, and anti-tank weapons, as well as dozens of artillery systems and hundreds of air defense missiles. The Pentagon is committed to providing Ukraine with the resources it needs to deter and fight Russian aggression, utilizing both existing stockpiles and funding for new orders from manufacturers. While the current US administration plans to use all remaining funds for military assistance to Ukraine by January 2025, the future of this aid remains uncertain, contingent upon the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.
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Alexei Zimin, a prominent Russian journalist and chef known for his outspoken criticism of the war in Ukraine, has been found dead in Belgrade, Serbia at the age of 52. Zimin, who had relocated to London in 2015 and launched a restaurant there, was a vocal opponent of the war and had been targeted by threats and cancellations following his anti-war stance. He had previously been a prominent figure in Russian media, working for publications like Afisha, GQ, and Gourmet, and had even hosted a popular cooking show before its cancellation in response to his anti-war statements. While the cause of his death remains unclear, the circumstances surrounding his passing raise concerns as the Kremlin has previously been accused of targeting anti-war critics and exiled Putin rivals abroad.
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Hvaldimir, a Beluga whale found off the coast of Norway wearing a Russian harness, has died. While some speculated the whale was a Russian spy, Dr. Olga Shpak, a Russian Beluga whale expert, believes Hvaldimir was being trained to guard a Kremlin military base in the Arctic Circle. However, she dismisses the notion of espionage, instead suggesting that Hvaldimir, known for his playful nature, escaped due to his “hooligan” tendencies. The whale’s death, discovered in September, is still under investigation, although no external injuries were observed.
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Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson warns that the United Kingdom might need to send troops to Ukraine if newly re-elected President Donald Trump cuts U.S. funding and military support. Johnson argues that failing to support Ukraine would threaten European security and could lead to increased costs for the U.K. He emphasizes that the U.K.’s protection of Ukraine is crucial to ensuring the security of other European nations from Russia. Johnson criticizes some Republicans for being “entranced” by Vladimir Putin and potentially influencing Trump to reduce aid to Ukraine, but he also acknowledges Trump’s previous support for Ukraine and its impact on the war effort.
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German chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has pledged to give Russia a 24-hour ultimatum to cease its aggression against Ukraine if elected. He has not ruled out direct communication with Vladimir Putin, but insists that if Russia does not comply, he would authorize strikes on Russian territory and provide Ukraine with Taurus long-range cruise missiles. This stance contrasts with current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has rejected supplying Taurus missiles and striking Russian territory. With Germany’s ruling coalition collapsing, early general elections are expected in March 2025, potentially setting the stage for a shift in German policy towards the Ukraine conflict.
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France is set to deliver 600 AASM-250 Hammer bombs to Ukraine by the end of the year, replenishing existing stocks and accelerating production to reach 1,200 by 2025. The Hammer bombs, already in use by Ukraine, have proven effective in striking targets behind enemy lines. Meanwhile, Germany’s upcoming snap election could significantly impact the war, as a potential new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has pledged to provide Ukraine with Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles under specific conditions. On the battlefield, the Russians are making incremental gains in Kursk, while Ukrainian forces continue to defend against Russian advances in other areas. The conflict continues to be marked by heavy fighting, drone warfare, and the use of increasingly sophisticated technology by both sides.
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During a visit to Kyiv, Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur met with President Zelensky and announced a new aid package for Ukraine, including clothing and small arms. This package reinforces Estonia’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense, which includes allocating 0.25% of its GDP to military support. The leaders discussed plans for long-range drone production in Ukraine and Estonia’s support for Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO. The visit underscored the strong partnership between Estonia and Ukraine, particularly in the context of the ongoing war, and highlighted their collaborative efforts to secure Ukraine’s future.
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The Kremlin has vehemently denied reports of a phone call between President-elect Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, in which Trump allegedly warned Putin against escalating the war in Ukraine. While Trump’s team declined to comment on the president-elect’s private calls, both the Kremlin and Trump’s communications director have refuted the Washington Post’s claims, labeling them as “pure fiction” and “false information.” Despite the denial, the potential impact of Trump’s policies on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with various international figures voicing their hopes that the United States will continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
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John Q. Hosedrinker