Secretary of State Marco Rubio and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul held discussions to address the war in Ukraine, highlighting diverging approaches within the transatlantic alliance. While the US seeks a swift resolution potentially involving concessions from Kyiv, Germany, along with other European nations, emphasizes the importance of Ukrainian sovereignty and rejects any “dictated peace.” These differing views are evident as Rubio skips a NATO meeting in Brussels, sending Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau in his place, adding further uncertainty to the situation. Ultimately, the future of military and financial aid for Kyiv hinges on whether the US and Europe can reconcile their differing views on achieving a lasting peace.
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Adding to a series of recent maritime incidents, a Russian-linked tanker, the Midvolga 2, was struck in the Black Sea on Tuesday while en route from Russia to Georgia, carrying sunflower oil. This marks the fourth such attack in a week, following the bombing of the Mersin off the coast of Senegal and the attacks on the Kairos and Virat near the Bosphorus. While the crew was unharmed and the Midvolga 2 is heading to Turkey, the attacks have been linked to Ukrainian drone strikes targeting vessels suspected of circumventing sanctions against Russia.
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Amidst the establishment of new migration control points at Russian airports, authorities have begun issuing military draft summonses to arriving citizens, particularly those who are naturalized. Reports from state-run media show that individuals, not just foreign nationals, are being intercepted upon arrival and served with draft notices, even with return tickets. This practice has raised concerns about ethnic profiling, as military law experts suggest the focus is on men of non-Slavic appearance due to limited resources for checking all male passengers. Naturalized citizens face greater risks compared to native-born Russians.
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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russia has not achieved successful offensive operations in recent weeks, despite ongoing actions. While acknowledging Russian advances and continued fighting, particularly in Pokrovsk, he highlighted Ukrainian successes, such as near-complete clearing of Kupiansk. Furthermore, Zelenskyy stated that Russia experienced its most significant losses in October, with approximately 25,500 service members killed, as confirmed by video evidence.
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The Netherlands has committed to purchasing $290 million in U.S. arms for Ukraine through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, including drones, missiles, and air defense equipment. This marks the second time the Netherlands has funded arms for Ukraine under the PURL program, following an initial commitment in August. Furthermore, the Dutch Defense Minister signed an agreement with Ukraine for joint drone production. This support comes as Kyiv faces intensifying Russian air strikes, necessitating enhanced air defenses and continued allied assistance.
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NATO is considering a shift toward a more aggressive response to hybrid threats, including cyberattacks and airspace violations, according to Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of NATO’s Military Committee. The alliance is exploring options like proactive cyber defense and potentially viewing “pre-emptive strikes” as defensive actions. This shift comes as European countries face increasing hybrid incidents, leading NATO to reassess its deterrence strategies, while also acknowledging the need to carefully consider legal and jurisdictional constraints. Despite successful deterrence efforts like the Baltic Sentry mission, challenges persist, particularly in international waters where accountability can be difficult to establish.
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International outcry persists over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, including the abduction of Ukrainian children and attacks on civilians, leading to investigations into over 178,000 alleged Russian crimes. A UN commission has found that Russian authorities committed crimes against humanity. European Union officials emphasize the necessity of holding Russia accountable, warning that allowing impunity would invite further aggression and invasion. The EU is also working towards establishing a special tribunal to prosecute Russian leaders for their actions.
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Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, daughter of former South African president Jacob Zuma, has resigned as an MP amid accusations of recruiting 17 South African men to fight for Russia in Ukraine under false pretenses. The men were allegedly told they would be training as bodyguards for Zuma’s MK party. While cooperating with a police investigation, Zuma-Sambudla claimed she was a victim of deception, denying knowledge of combat, and alleging that her involvement was for a legitimate training course. South African authorities are investigating the situation, with reports indicating the men were lured to join mercenary forces.
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Kazakhstan has urged Ukraine to cease attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal after a Ukrainian naval drone attack caused significant damage and halted operations. The CPC, a major pipeline handling over 1% of global oil, includes shareholders from Russia, Kazakhstan, and the U.S., with Kazakhstan being its primary oil exporter. Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry protested the attack on the civilian infrastructure, viewing it as harmful to bilateral relations and expecting preventative measures from Ukraine. Russia has labeled the attacks as terrorism, while Ukraine defends its actions as self-defense against Russian aggression.
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The Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s marine terminal in Novorossiysk suspended oil loadings following a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel attack on November 29th, resulting in severe damage to the SPM-2 single point mooring unit. Cargo operations were halted, and tankers were moved out of CPC waters as a result. The attack triggered the shutdown of pipelines, preventing potential oil spills, and environmental monitoring is currently underway. This incident follows previous attacks on the terminal, and contributes to the ongoing disruption of Russian oil export infrastructure.
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John Q. Hosedrinker