President-elect Trump intends to continue supplying military aid to Ukraine, a decision supported by unnamed sources and seemingly aimed at bolstering Ukrainian defense capabilities in the absence of stronger NATO involvement. This aid strategy, despite Trump’s opposition to Ukrainian NATO membership and desire for a swift end to the conflict, is predicated on achieving “peace through strength.” The plan reportedly includes pressuring NATO allies to significantly increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, a move that would double current requirements. This approach will be further explored through upcoming diplomatic efforts, including a visit by the incoming Special Envoy for Ukraine to Kyiv.
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On December 20th, Ukraine repatriated 503 fallen soldiers from Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk oblasts, and morgues in Russia, fulfilling the Geneva Conventions’ mandate for dignified burials. This operation, involving multiple government agencies and the ICRC, brought the total number of identified fallen soldiers to over 2,800. The recovered remains will undergo identification by law enforcement and forensic experts. President Zelensky previously reported approximately 43,000 Ukrainian soldier deaths since the full-scale invasion began.
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Two large explosions near Russia’s Severomorsk Arctic naval base, home to key military assets, shook nearby cities. The cause remains undetermined, with speculation ranging from accidental munitions detonation to sabotage, potentially involving drones. The explosions’ proximity to airfields, weapons depots, and other military installations raises significant concerns about potential damage to Russian military capabilities. While the distance from Ukraine suggests a sophisticated attack, Moscow simultaneously launched missile strikes on Kyiv, potentially signaling escalation.
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A $4.5 million Antonov An-72 military transport aircraft, belonging to the Russian Navy, exploded at Moscow’s Ostafyevo airfield on December 12, 2024. The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine attributed the blast to the detonation of the aircraft’s main power plant, though it did not claim responsibility. This incident follows the recent destruction of a Crimean radar system, highlighting the ongoing strain on Russia’s military resources amid the war in Ukraine. The timing is significant given Russia’s economic challenges and ongoing conflict.
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Addressing Russia’s economic challenges during his annual “Direct Line” Q&A, President Putin acknowledged high inflation, currently around 9.3%, driven by factors including rising food prices, a weaker ruble, and increased military spending. While blaming international sanctions for contributing to price increases, he also implied criticism of the central bank’s approach, suggesting alternative methods to curb inflation. Despite these concerns, Putin expressed confidence in the economy’s overall performance, projecting growth of 3.9-4% this year and 2-2.5% in 2024, contrasting with the IMF’s more conservative forecast. The government and central bank are tasked with managing a “soft landing” for the economy.
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Ukraine will cease all transit of Russian gas through its territory by the end of 2024, President Zelenskyy announced. This decision aims to prevent Russia from profiting from the war by disguising its gas as originating from other countries, such as Azerbaijan. While acknowledging potential financial losses for Ukraine and hardship for countries like Slovakia, which heavily relies on Russian gas, Zelenskyy emphasized the imperative of denying Russia further revenue for its war effort. He suggested a conditional exception: allowing transit only if European buyers refuse to pay Russia until the war ends, a scenario unlikely due to contractual obligations. This decision is likely to further strain relations between Ukraine and Slovakia, given the latter’s dependence on Russian gas and skepticism toward further supporting Ukraine.
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In response to intensified Russian attacks, Denmark has committed an additional $292 million to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses. This funding supports the operation of Ukraine’s F-16s and is part of over $7.5 billion in military aid provided since the start of the invasion. The contribution follows Denmark’s delivery of a second batch of F-16s and reflects a broader coalition commitment to supporting Ukraine against ongoing Russian aggression. This aid prioritizes counteracting Russian air strikes, a critical need for Ukraine’s defense.
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In a year-end press conference, Vladimir Putin admitted that Russia should have begun its invasion of Ukraine sooner and with more thorough preparation. He also discussed Russia’s continued support of the Assad regime in Syria, its strengthened relationship with China, and its assertive nuclear doctrine. Despite claiming progress in Ukraine, Putin expressed openness to compromises to end the conflict. The event, heavily controlled and broadcast nationally, showcased Putin’s perspective on Russia’s current standing in global affairs.
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The EU’s support for Ukraine and its global role dominated the leaders’ meeting, with a unified approach deemed crucial for maintaining international influence. Kallas highlighted the contrast between a “might makes right” world order and the EU’s commitment to rules-based international relations. The collapse of the Syrian regime was viewed positively, exposing the weakness of Russia and Iran. Consequently, the EU plans to explore collaboration with Syria’s new leadership to shut down Russian military bases.
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The U.K. announced a £225 million military aid package for Ukraine, including naval equipment, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology. This substantial commitment, totaling £12.8 billion since 2022, underscores Britain’s unwavering support for Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict and concerns about potential shifts in U.S. aid. The package also features training for Ukrainian soldiers, highlighting a multifaceted approach to bolstering Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Prime Minister Starmer’s emphasis on continued aid underscores the U.K.’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, even in the face of potential future challenges.
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John Q. Hosedrinker