Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk region, resulting in clashes near Berdin and Makhnovka. Ukrainian forces, having initially crossed the border in August, have maintained control of seized territory despite Russian and North Korean counter-efforts. Reports indicate heavy fighting involving tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, with both sides claiming battlefield successes. The conflict, involving an estimated 11,000 North Korean troops, continues amidst conflicting reports and unverifiable battlefield claims.
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Following a January 1st halt in Russian gas supplies, Transnistria rejected Moldova’s offer to facilitate gas purchases from European markets. The region’s authorities cited concerns about higher and unstable European prices, instead anticipating a resumption of Gazprom deliveries under their existing contract. This decision comes despite widespread gas outages affecting thousands and prompted rolling blackouts, forcing reliance on dwindling electricity reserves. While these reserves are projected to last until winter’s end, increased electricity consumption due to the gas shortage may accelerate depletion.
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Intense fighting continues across the Ukrainian front, particularly near Pokrovsk. In recent battles near Makhnovka, Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces inflicted significant losses on the Russian army. These losses included up to a full battalion of infantry, comprised of both Russian paratroopers and North Korean soldiers. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirmed this substantial defeat to President Zelenskyy. The report highlights the heavy toll the conflict is taking on Russian forces.
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Overnight on January 4th, drones attacked Russia’s Ust-Luga seaport in Leningrad Oblast, a significant distance from the Ukrainian border. While most drones were intercepted, resulting in minor damage and no casualties, the attack targeted the Novotrans terminal, a key logistical hub. This incident follows a similar attack on a gas-condensate plant at the same port in late January, highlighting continued Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian supply lines deep within its territory. The scale of the port makes it a high-value target.
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A North Korean offensive toward Kruglenke, utilizing a narrow forest corridor, was decisively repelled by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian drone strikes and automatic grenade launchers inflicted heavy casualties on the densely packed North Korean troops. Despite suffering significant losses, North Korean forces persist in their attacks on Kruglenkoe, viewing it as the only remaining feasible avenue for achieving any offensive gains. The village’s buildings offer much-needed cover from Ukrainian fire, making it a crucial objective. This continued assault, however, is proving exceptionally costly for the North Koreans.
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In 2024, Ukrainian forces lost over 3,600 sq km of territory, significantly exceeding the 540 sq km lost in 2023. The most substantial losses occurred in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, with daily losses exceeding 20 sq km in November. Russian gains included significant advances in the Velyka Novosilka-Ocheretyne and Lyman-Kupiansk areas, as well as territory in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Despite some Ukrainian territorial gains elsewhere, including a brief incursion into Kursk Oblast, Militarnyi forecasts continued Russian pressure along multiple fronts.
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A January 3rd explosion in Shuya, Russia severely injured Captain Konstantin Nagayko, commander of the 112th Missile Brigade, who sustained critical shrapnel wounds. Nagayko, a veteran of the war in Ukraine, allegedly participated in the October 5th missile strike on a café in Hroza, resulting in the deaths of 59 Ukrainian civilians. His injuries are reportedly life-threatening, fueling negative morale within his brigade. The incident highlights the involvement of Russian military personnel in atrocities committed against Ukrainian civilians.
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Following a claimed Ukrainian attack using US-provided ATACMS missiles, Russia vowed retaliation, citing the incident as a major escalation. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported intercepting eight ATACMS missiles and 72 UAVs, with attacks impacting regions including Leningrad and Kursk. This follows President Putin’s earlier threats to respond to ATACMS use with the new “Oreshnik” missile. Simultaneously, Russia launched a large-scale drone attack against Ukraine, resulting in damage and casualties.
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Secretary Blinken revealed that Russia seriously considered using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a prospect causing significant US concern. China’s intervention is believed to have prevented this escalation, suggesting a possible influence on Russian nuclear strategy. This intervention mirrors a similar situation involving a potential space-based nuclear launch. Despite Russia’s setbacks, including a strengthened NATO, the US maintains that providing Ukraine with advanced weaponry hasn’t heightened the nuclear threat.
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Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) reports that Russia has deployed 140,000-180,000 convicts to fight in Ukraine since summer 2022, a recruitment effort initially managed by the Wagner Group and later by the Ministry of Defense. This recruitment significantly reduced Russia’s prison population, now estimated at 300,000-350,000, compared to 2014’s numbers. The recent elimination of a one-time payment to these prisoners indicates worsening economic conditions in Russia. Despite initial promises, these convicts receive significantly lower pay and fewer benefits than regular Russian soldiers, and some have re-offended upon their return.
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John Q. Hosedrinker