NATO air policing missions near Estonia have involved multiple intercepts of Russian aircraft. French Rafale jets, for the first time since commencing their Lithuanian-based mission, intercepted a Russian IL-18 off the Estonian coast. Separately, Dutch F-35s intercepted three Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea. These actions follow similar incidents involving Norwegian and Italian aircraft, highlighting ongoing activity in the region. The deployments underscore NATO’s commitment to securing its eastern flank.
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Over 4,800 incidents involving chemical weapons, including riot control agents, have been documented against Ukrainian forces since the war began, resulting in over 2,000 servicemen hospitalized with chemical poisoning and three fatalities. Russian forces utilize these weapons under the cover of intense attacks, hindering investigation and prosecution. The Ukrainian military faces challenges in identifying and mitigating these threats due to equipment limitations. Despite a recent decrease in K-51 tear gas grenade use due to colder weather, Ukraine maintains its commitment to the Chemical Weapons Convention.
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Satellite imagery reveals a significant drawdown of Russian military equipment and personnel from key Syrian bases, including Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base, following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. Observed activities include the dismantling of military hardware and the movement of Russian convoys, suggesting a potential withdrawal. This shift reflects Russia’s response to the loss of a key ally and the uncertain future of its influence in the region. While the Kremlin downplays the impact, discussions with Syria’s new government are underway regarding the future of Russian military presence.
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Mikheil Kavelashvili, a pro-Russia politician with strong anti-Western views, was elected Georgian president by a vote of 224 out of 225 electors. His election follows contested parliamentary elections and the Georgian Dream party’s decision to delay EU membership talks, sparking widespread protests. Incumbent President Salome Zourabichvili, a pro-Western figure, rejects the legitimacy of the election and refuses to step down, creating a constitutional crisis. International condemnation of the situation is mounting, with the EU and US expressing support for Georgia’s pro-democracy movement and imposing sanctions.
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The Netherlands’ Supreme Court upheld lower court rulings rejecting Russia’s appeal against a Hague Arbitration Court decision. This decision confirms Russia’s liability for the illegal expropriation of Naftogaz’s Crimean assets, a violation of a Ukraine-Russia investment agreement. The ruling validates the February 2019 partial award and the subsequent $5 billion compensation order against Russia. This final judgment reinforces the Hague tribunal’s jurisdiction and follows a similar decision by a Finnish court, which seized Russian assets to enforce the award.
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Overnight on December 14th, multiple Russian Telegram channels reported a Ukrainian drone attack on an Oryol oil depot, resulting in a significant fire and explosions. Oryol Oblast governor Andrey Klychkov confirmed the downing of eleven drones and the localization of the fire, reporting no casualties. While unverified by Ukrainian authorities, videos circulating on social media appear to show a drone strike impacting an oil storage tank. This attack follows a pattern of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure near the border.
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President-elect Trump’s team is actively pursuing a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict, engaging with Ukrainian and White House officials, though a concrete peace plan remains absent. While Trump publicly advocates for peace and has communicated with Zelenskyy, the extent of communication with Putin and the feasibility of securing Russian cooperation are unclear. Challenges persist, including Russia’s battlefield gains and potential unwillingness to concede, while Trump’s team may propose concessions such as delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership to facilitate negotiations. The Biden administration, however, expressed concern over such concessions.
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President-elect Trump proposed that European troops oversee a potential Ukraine ceasefire, a suggestion discussed among European officials but rejected by Poland. This proposal, coupled with his desire for a reduced U.S. role and opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership, reflects a strategy to leverage European involvement and pressure from China to end the conflict. Trump intends to maintain Ukrainian military support while simultaneously urging Moscow to negotiate. He also criticized the Biden administration’s approach to the conflict, particularly long-range strikes within Russia.
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Amidst potential ceasefire talks in Ukraine, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto expressed Italy’s willingness to participate in a peacekeeping mission, a proposal initially suggested by French President Macron. While this stance isn’t universally supported within Italy, with the Foreign Minister deeming discussions premature, it marks the first public affirmation of support from a European nation. However, significant hurdles remain, including the lack of Russian willingness to negotiate and the ongoing conflict. Other European nations have shown less enthusiasm for contributing troops.
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Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba asserts that Russia lacks the capacity for multiple wars, but possesses the resources for one at a time, implying that a Ukrainian defeat would endanger Europe. He emphasizes NATO membership as crucial to preventing future conflict, rejecting alternative security guarantees as insufficient. Kuleba highlights the need for pressure on Russia to negotiate in good faith, while stating that President Zelenskyy will not accept territorial concessions. Despite President-elect Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire, Kuleba underscores that lasting peace hinges on Moscow’s actions.
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John Q. Hosedrinker