Ukraine successfully targeted a Russian command post in Gubkin, Belgorod Oblast, approximately 168 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This follows President Biden’s authorization of long-range ATACMS missile strikes into Russia, with this attack marking the first confirmed use of these missiles against a Russian command post. Reports indicate significant damage and corroborate Ukrainian claims, despite Russian denials and interception claims. The strike occurred amidst heightened tensions, including the reported deployment of North Korean troops to the Ukrainian front and the closure of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv due to a potential air attack threat.
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Andrew Rettman, EUobserver’s foreign editor since 2005, specializes in foreign and security affairs. A Polish national raised in the UK and currently residing in Brussels, his expertise is reflected in his contributions to prominent publications such as The Guardian, The Times of London, and Intelligence Online. His background provides a unique perspective on European affairs.
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For the first time, Ukraine used British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike a building in the Kursk region of Russia, reportedly targeting a control room housing Russian and North Korean military officials. Debris at the site confirmed the use of Storm Shadow missiles, following recent US authorization for Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles within Russia. Ukrainian defense experts believe the strike involved up to twelve missiles, though the target’s exact nature remains speculative. This action follows previous use of Storm Shadow missiles within Ukrainian territory and signifies an escalation of the conflict.
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Germany’s latest military aid package to Ukraine includes heavy weaponry such as Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers and Gepard anti-aircraft guns, along with significant ammunition supplies and various vehicles. This delivery builds upon Germany’s substantial contributions, making it the second largest military supplier to Ukraine after the U.S. However, planned military aid will be halved in 2025 to €4 billion, despite the current €8 billion allocation for 2024. This reduction comes amid political uncertainty and despite the U.S. allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles, Germany continues to refrain from providing its own Taurus missiles.
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The Biden administration’s authorization of long-range ATACMS strikes inside Russia represents a significant policy shift, potentially bolstering Ukraine’s defense against a large Russian-North Korean force. This action, likely influenced by the upcoming Trump presidency, allows Ukraine to target key Russian infrastructure, such as command centers and logistics, thereby weakening their offensive capabilities. Retired General Ben Hodges emphasizes that while not a “game changer” in itself, the ATACMS authorization is a positive step, although its restricted use remains a concern. However, the long-term impact remains uncertain given President-elect Trump’s stated intentions to quickly end the war, raising concerns about future U.S. support for Ukraine.
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The EU will allocate €1.4 billion from seized Russian assets to fund military equipment for Ukraine, with delivery expected by the end of 2024, followed by an additional €1.9 billion in early 2025. This initiative follows the near-completion of a separate EU program providing Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells. Furthermore, the EU plans a €35 billion loan to Ukraine, with repayment sourced from future revenue generated from frozen Russian assets. Despite Hungarian opposition to some EU military aid initiatives, this significant funding demonstrates continued international support for Ukraine’s defense.
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President Zelensky warned that a cessation of US military funding would result in a Ukrainian defeat, emphasizing the crucial nature of US-Ukraine unity for success. He expressed concern over potential shifts in US foreign policy, referencing President-elect Trump’s campaign promises to end US involvement in foreign conflicts. Zelensky, however, suggested Trump’s strength could be leveraged to negotiate an end to the conflict with Russia. Despite this hope, significant Republican opposition to continued US aid to Ukraine exists, fueled by concerns over domestic priorities and manufacturing capacity.
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In a recent Fox News interview, Ukrainian President Zelensky asserted that the war’s conclusion hinges more on the United States than Russia, citing President Putin’s relative weakness. He expressed hope that President-elect Trump’s potential influence, particularly regarding energy prices, could pressure Putin to end hostilities. However, Zelensky warned that reduced U.S. aid under a Trump administration risks Ukraine losing the war, despite its continued resistance. Trump’s campaign promises to negotiate a swift end to the conflict have introduced significant uncertainty into the situation.
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Addressing the European Parliament on the 1000th day of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of a potential deployment of up to 100,000 North Korean troops to aid Russia. This alarming figure, corroborated by Ukraine’s ambassador to South Korea, suggests a significant escalation of the conflict. Reports also indicate that North Korea has supplied Russia with additional long-range artillery systems. The deployment of North Korean troops, coupled with Russia’s recent nuclear doctrine changes, underscores growing international concern over the war’s expansion.
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Several Russian officers have been arrested for falsifying battlefield reports claiming territorial gains near Siversk. These fabrications, allegedly driven by a desire to impress Moscow, are now under investigation, impacting commanders from multiple brigades. This action reflects a change in Moscow’s approach to military failures, exposing internal struggles and weakening Russia’s war effort. The arrests highlight a breakdown in trust and reveal the challenges Russia faces in achieving battlefield success. Continued Ukrainian resistance and sustained Western support exacerbate these internal weaknesses.
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John Q. Hosedrinker