Ukraine and the UAE formalized an economic partnership agreement on Monday, establishing free trade. President Zelenskyy’s subsequent trip to Turkey and Saudi Arabia is unrelated to concurrent U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh, though he intends to inquire about their progress. While Zelenskyy supports European involvement in future negotiations to pressure Russia for peace, both Moscow and Washington have rejected this proposal, citing differing priorities for their bilateral discussions. The Kremlin emphasized that its focus is on rebuilding U.S.-Russia relations and laying the groundwork for potential Ukraine negotiations.
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Sky News captured footage of Russian ships Sparta and Sparta 2, sanctioned by the US in 2022, transiting the English Channel on February 13th. These vessels, owned by a Russian Ministry of Defence company, transported military equipment evacuated from Syria following the Assad regime’s fall. The British Navy’s RFA Tideforce shadowed the Russian ships, which were accompanied by the armed Russian naval ship RFS Aleksandr Otrakovskiy. This equipment was likely moved from Russia’s now-abandoned Tartus naval base.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy firmly stated that Ukraine will not participate in, nor recognize any agreements reached in, Saudi Arabia-based talks between Russian and US representatives concerning Ukraine. He emphasized that any negotiations excluding Ukraine are meaningless. Zelenskyy’s own Saudi Arabia visit, focusing on oil price reduction and unrelated to the US-Russia discussions, included plans to address the talks directly with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Zelenskyy believes President Trump holds significant influence over oil prices and could potentially lower them.
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A Moscow court levied a 3.8 million ruble ($41,530) fine against Google for YouTube content providing instructions on surrendering to Ukrainian forces. This penalty follows Russia’s ongoing practice of fining foreign tech platforms for allegedly illegal content related to the Ukraine conflict. The fine comes amidst accusations by critics that Russia is intentionally throttling YouTube speeds to suppress dissenting viewpoints. Google has yet to publicly respond to the ruling and denies Russia’s claims of equipment failures causing the speed issues.
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French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot deems Russia’s return to the G7 currently impossible due to its undemocratic actions and aggression against G7 members. He highlighted Russia’s increasingly autocratic nature and its unprovoked war in Ukraine as key obstacles. However, Barrot left open the possibility of future reintegration contingent upon a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine and renewed engagement with the Russian people. This contrasts with recent statements by US President Trump advocating for Russia’s reinstatement.
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At the Munich Security Conference, German and UK foreign ministers Annalena Baerbock and David Lammy declared Ukraine’s NATO accession irreversible, framing it as the most cost-effective long-term security solution for Europe. Both emphasized that maintaining NATO membership as an option for Ukraine is significantly more affordable than alternative security measures. This stance aligns with ongoing Allied discussions and President Zelenskyy’s assertion that Ukraine will not compromise on NATO aspirations. Lammy further noted that even with a resolution to the current conflict, enduring security concerns necessitate continued dialogue with the US on future security guarantees.
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Next week in Saudi Arabia, a Trump-appointed delegation, including Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Adviser Waltz, will meet with Russian officials to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. These talks, following Trump’s calls with Zelenskyy and Putin, aim to facilitate peace with Ukrainian involvement. While Ukraine’s role is a key concern, the potential agreement’s terms remain undefined, though NATO membership for Ukraine and full territorial reclamation seem unlikely. Further high-level meetings, including a Trump-Putin summit, are anticipated.
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US-Russia preliminary ceasefire talks are scheduled in Riyadh, prompting a parallel European summit in Paris to address concerns over exclusion from the process and potential US-Russia deals compromising Ukrainian sovereignty. The Paris summit, attended by key European leaders including the UK, will focus on a European action plan, including potential troop commitments to a stabilization force and a NATO membership offer for Ukraine contingent on a Russian ceasefire breach. Simultaneously, fears persist regarding a potential US-Russia carve-up of Ukraine, mirroring the Yalta agreement, and a lack of Ukrainian involvement in the Riyadh talks. European leaders are divided on responding to these developments, with some anticipating a transatlantic rupture while others seek to strengthen European security offerings to maintain a role in Ukraine’s future.
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Despite US assurances of Ukrainian involvement, a senior Ukrainian source confirms Kyiv received no invitation to US-Russia peace talks scheduled for Saudi Arabia. These talks, involving US envoys and potentially leading to further meetings, proceed without European participation, prompting a separate European summit in Paris. President Zelensky has firmly rejected any peace deal excluding Ukraine. Conflicting statements from US officials regarding Ukrainian involvement and the overall peace process have created uncertainty and concern.
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Amidst a potential US-Russia peace deal excluding Ukraine and Europe, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the UK’s readiness to deploy troops to Ukraine to enforce a peace agreement with Russia, emphasizing the need for a strong European defense. This decision comes ahead of a Paris summit with European leaders and a planned Washington visit with President Trump, highlighting concerns about reduced US defense commitments and the need for collective action. Despite calls for increased military spending beyond the planned 2.5% of GDP, the government maintains its current commitment. Starmer insists Ukraine must be included in any negotiations to prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan withdrawal and ensure a lasting peace.
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John Q. Hosedrinker