From Kyiv, on day 1,391 of the invasion, reports indicate that Ukraine is facing significant financial and military challenges. Ukraine’s Defense Minister stated that the country requires $60 billion from partners to fund defense in 2026. The UK has pledged over $800 million for Ukraine’s air defenses, with deliveries expected to continue through 2026. While Russia denies a submarine strike claim, fighting continues to intensify in the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad areas, with Ukrainian forces attempting to hold their ground. Additionally, Russia rejected a proposed Christmas truce, and attacks over the past day resulted in casualties.
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The Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented on the recent attack on Novorossiysk, though Russian military bloggers suggest the damage was minimal. However, if the SBU’s claims are accurate, the financial implications for Russia could be significant, potentially costing hundreds of millions of dollars. This attack is part of Ukraine’s ongoing deep-strike campaign against Russian military and energy targets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of maintaining Ukraine’s ability to defend itself as leverage in potential negotiations.
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A recent poll indicates that Ukrainians are willing to consider peace agreements with security guarantees but strongly oppose plans involving complete withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast. The survey revealed that 75% of respondents rejected a peace plan that included withdrawal from Donbas and military restrictions, while 72% were open to a deal freezing territorial control at the current line of contact with security guarantees. Despite ongoing war and attacks, 63% of those surveyed were prepared to endure the conflict “as long as necessary.” Furthermore, the poll showed that Ukrainians trust President Zelensky and overwhelmingly do not desire elections before the end of hostilities.
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On Tuesday, December 16th, thirty-five countries convened in the Netherlands to sign a convention, creating the International Claims Commission for Ukraine. This commission, operating under the Council of Europe, will address damages caused by Russia’s invasion, building upon the foundation laid by the Register of Damage established in 2023. The Commission will assess and process claims alongside the Register of Damage. The final stage of this mechanism is the development of a compensation fund, largely funded by frozen Russian assets, to provide financial relief for those impacted by the conflict.
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According to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Russia is uninterested in a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine, including a proposed Christmas truce. Moscow’s position is that a pause would allow Kyiv to regroup and prepare for further conflict, instead of achieving Russia’s goals and securing its interests. Peskov stated Russia seeks peace on its own terms and is not prepared to substitute broader peace settlement negotiations with short-term measures. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had not yet received an official response from the United States regarding Ukraine’s peace plan proposals, though discussions were planned.
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German foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter has warned that 2026 and 2027 will be crucial years for regional security, citing the significant presence of up to 360,000 Russian troops in Belarus as a key concern. Kiesewetter, who previously served in the German Armed Forces and at NATO headquarters, stated that Russia has assembled two army corps in Belarus, raising particular alarm in the Baltic states. He also noted that while the war in Ukraine has not been entirely successful, Putin is training hundreds of thousands of soldiers via a wartime economy, many of whom are not deployed in Ukraine.
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During a speech to the Dutch Parliament, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is losing approximately 30,000 soldiers per month on the front lines. He highlighted that these figures fluctuate, with losses ranging from 25,000 to 31,000 in certain months. Zelenskyy emphasized that Russia prioritizes power and money over the lives of its soldiers, citing the high casualty rates and the Kremlin’s focus on financial gains. The president is currently in the Netherlands for meetings with European leaders.
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Speaking at the Berlin summit on peace in Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that the United States would respond militarily if Russia attacks Ukraine again. Tusk stated that American negotiators, including Steve Witkoff, had been clear in their commitment to providing security guarantees to Ukraine. This united front of the US, Europe, and Ukraine is seen as crucial in pressuring Russia to engage in serious peace talks or agree to a ceasefire. Tusk emphasized the importance of Western allies acting together to prevent Russia from creating divisions.
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As U.S. pressure on Ukraine grows, Ukrainians are largely opposed to Russian demands, particularly regarding territorial concessions. President Zelensky has stated that any decisions on territorial concessions should be decided by Ukrainians, potentially through a referendum, though this is complicated by martial law. Many Ukrainians view holding a vote during the war as unrealistic due to security concerns and logistical challenges. A recent survey showed that a significant majority of Ukrainians oppose plans that involve troop withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast, with many citizens emphasizing that they would not concede these territories to Russia.
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President Zelenskyy declared Ukraine’s refusal to cede Donbas to Russia or recognize it as Russian territory. The United States has proposed a free economic zone for the region as a possible compromise, but Zelenskyy stressed this would not imply Russian control. Negotiations involving the US, Ukraine, and European leaders have focused on a revised peace plan, with the territorial issue remaining a key point of contention. While a referendum on territorial matters is not currently planned, Ukraine is open to elections in Donbas once a ceasefire is established.
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John Q. Hosedrinker