A new IISS report reveals that Russia’s 2023 defense spending, at $462 billion, surpassed the combined total of all European nations ($457 billion), a 42% increase for Russia. This increase, projected to continue at 13.7% in 2024, raises concerns about European security, especially if US support for Ukraine diminishes. While some European nations, notably Germany and the UK, increased spending, achieving targets like 3% or 5% of GDP for defense would necessitate massive budget increases and is not currently guaranteed. Russia’s sustained military spending, despite economic strain, underscores the significant security challenge it poses to Europe.
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In a recent interview with The Guardian, President Zelensky revealed that assassination attempts against him occurred at the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, resulting in casualties within the Presidential Office. These attempts, along with others reported throughout the war, coincided with Russia’s pressure for Ukraine to accept unfavorable peace terms. Zelensky also highlighted Russia’s significant numerical military advantage over both Ukraine and Europe, warning that without Ukraine’s resistance, a full-scale Russian occupation of Europe is a real possibility. He cited intelligence indicating Russia’s plans to further expand its forces and potentially launch attacks beyond Ukraine’s borders.
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Following a purported conversation, former President Trump claims he and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to commence negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Trump asserts that they will collaborate closely on this endeavor. The statement lacks specific details regarding the nature or scope of these alleged negotiations. No independent verification of this claim currently exists.
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In response to Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s proposal to exchange occupied Ukrainian territories for areas of the Kursk region held by Ukraine, the Kremlin issued a firm rejection. Moscow categorically stated that trading any Russian territory is unacceptable and will not be considered. Zelenskiy’s offer, made to the Guardian, aimed to facilitate a negotiated end to the conflict. Despite Russia’s stance, the Kremlin asserted that Ukrainian forces would be removed from Kursk.
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Estonia’s intelligence service reports that Russia plans a new propaganda campaign, aiming to leverage the “nuclear winter” theory to frighten the American public. This strategy seeks to undermine US support for Ukraine by emphasizing the catastrophic consequences of escalating the conflict. The Kremlin intends to utilize American scientists to disseminate these warnings, a significant escalation of their information warfare tactics. This represents a shift from previous, less direct, nuclear threats made by President Putin.
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Kpler data reveals that sanctioned Russian nuclear icebreakers, operated by Atomflot, facilitated the delivery of significant quantities of LNG from Yamal LNG to European companies, including Shell, TotalEnergies, and Naturgy. While direct payments to Atomflot by European entities haven’t been confirmed, indirect benefits via Yamal LNG raise legal and ethical concerns regarding sanctions compliance. Experts argue that these indirect links pose a high risk of sanctions violations, particularly given publicly available information on Atomflot’s icebreaking fees. Despite Shell and Naturgy asserting compliance, the situation underscores the ethical implications of profiting from Russia’s energy exports during the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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A Russian Su-24MR military aircraft violated Polish airspace for 72 seconds on February 11, 2025, entering four miles over the Gulf of Gdansk’s territorial waters. Polish radar tracked the aircraft, originating from Kaliningrad, before a Russian air traffic controller corrected its course. Polish authorities reported that Russia acknowledged the airspace violation, attributing it to navigational system failure. This incident follows heightened tensions between Russia and NATO, raising concerns about potential escalation.
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This updated assessment forecasts potential Russian aggression following a cessation or freezing of the Ukraine conflict, assuming limited Russian capacity for multi-front warfare. Three scenarios are presented: a local war within six months, a regional Baltic war within two years, and a large-scale European attack within five years (absent US involvement). The assessment notably excludes potential NATO defense enhancements. These projections are further contextualized by President Trump’s calls for increased NATO defense spending and his past statements regarding potential US withdrawal or encouragement of Russian attacks against financially non-compliant members.
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Overnight on February 11th, Ukrainian forces launched a joint operation involving drones and special forces, successfully striking the Saratov oil refinery, a key facility supplying fuel to Russian forces in Ukraine. The attack resulted in a significant fire at the Rosneft facility, the extent of which is still being assessed. This strike, along with recent attacks on other Russian energy infrastructure, is part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to weaken Russia’s military and economic capabilities. The Saratov refinery, with an annual refining capacity of 7 million tons of oil, is a critical component of Russia’s fuel infrastructure.
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