Intelligence assessments indicate that Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon designed to target Starlink satellites, employing “area-effect” technology to disable multiple satellites simultaneously by scattering dense spherical objects into their orbital paths. This could create significant debris, posing risks to other space systems, including the International Space Station and China’s Tiangong. The weapon aims to erode Western advantages in space, particularly those supporting Ukraine, and differs from a previous missile test in 2021 as it is designed to target multiple satellites. Western officials have expressed concern about Russia’s exploration of space-based weapons.
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On December 21st, Swedish authorities detained the sanctioned Russian vessel, the Adler, after an overnight inspection following the ship’s engine failure and subsequent anchoring off the coast. The cargo ship, owned by the sanctioned M Leasing LLC, has a history of transporting Russian weapons and carrying North Korean ammunition to Russia, leading to the inspection conducted by Swedish Customs in cooperation with the Coast Guard. This action comes amid rising tensions and concerns over Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which has been linked to sabotage operations and drone launches. The case has been referred to the prosecutor for further investigation, highlighting the seriousness of the situation.
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According to intelligence findings, two NATO-nation intelligence services suspect Russia is developing a “zone-effect” anti-satellite weapon designed to target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation. The weapon, which would flood orbits with high-density pellets, aims to disable multiple satellites, while also risking substantial collateral damage to other orbiting systems. Analysts express skepticism about its practicality due to the potential for uncontrolled space debris, even if Russia has repeatedly denied any intention of deploying such weapons. The weapon, if deployed, could also potentially affect Russia’s own satellite network.
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A 19-year-old woman, Darya Kozyreva, has been sentenced to nearly three years in a penal colony by a St. Petersburg court for repeatedly discrediting the Russian army. The charges stemmed from gluing a quote by Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko onto his monument and an interview where she criticized the war in Ukraine. This is not Kozyreva’s first run-in with the law, as she was previously fined and expelled from university for anti-war statements. Human rights organizations have condemned the verdict as politically motivated, highlighting Russia’s crackdown on dissent and its efforts to silence opposition to the war.
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In Moscow, a Russian general has been killed by a car bomb, according to officials. The victim, Lt Gen Fanil Sarvarov, was the head of the armed forces’ operational training department. This marks the third military official killed in the city by a bomb attack within the past year. Authorities are investigating potential involvement by Ukrainian intelligence services, while also exploring other leads, as they probe the circumstances of the murder and illegal handling of explosives.
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On December 20, Russian forces reportedly detained and deported approximately 50 Ukrainian civilians from the village of Hrabovske in the Sumy region to Russia. The Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights confirmed the illegal detention and forced deportation, citing violations of international humanitarian law. Ukrainian officials have appealed to Russia’s human rights commissioner and the International Committee of the Red Cross, demanding information and the civilians’ immediate return. The abduction is believed to be a localized provocation aimed at political or information pressure, with officials urging the international community to condemn the actions.
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In a recent interview, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte revealed that several European countries are prepared to deploy troops to Ukraine to aid in maintaining peace and responding to potential Russian violations of a peace agreement. While the specific details of these deployments are still being negotiated, Rutte indicated that the structure of a “Coalition of the Willing” is being established, considering land, sea, and air deployments. The UK and Portugal have also signaled their readiness to contribute peacekeeping forces once the conflict concludes, emphasizing the ongoing coordination of post-war security measures.
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In a significant development, Ukraine and Portugal have partnered to co-produce sea drones, a crucial element of Ukraine’s defense. President Zelensky emphasized the promise of this initiative, highlighting its potential to bolster European defense-industrial cooperation. This agreement aims to improve maritime security while showcasing the effectiveness of Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles against Russian naval assets. This partnership builds on previous support, including a 10-year security agreement, financial commitments, and contributions to procuring weapons for Ukraine.
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Leaked Russian documents reveal the production of a new Iskander 1000 ballistic missile, a modernized 9M723-2 variant with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, capable of striking numerous European cities. This extended range significantly expands the threat beyond Ukraine, especially as the missiles can be deployed from Russian territory or Kaliningrad. Despite existing sanctions, the missile relies on Western-made components, and not all involved companies are sanctioned. Experts suggest the EU should increase sanctions, improve enforcement, and address the use of Chinese technology to counter this threat.
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Moscow has moved to terminate military cooperation agreements with eleven European countries, including Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom. These agreements, signed between 1992 and 2002, facilitated defense cooperation and mutual assistance. The decision encompasses both EU member states and those with special status in European security. This follows a previous termination of a military-technical cooperation agreement with Germany in July, citing its incompatibility with current relations.
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John Q. Hosedrinker