Ukraine’s newly deployed Neptune cruise missile, boasting a range exceeding 600 miles, has successfully struck targets deep within Russia, including an oil refinery near President Putin’s residence. This combat-proven missile, years in development, places Moscow within its striking distance. The successful deployment comes amidst tense ceasefire negotiations involving the U.S., and despite Russia’s rejection of the proposed terms, the development significantly alters the dynamics of the ongoing conflict.
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Following a tense Oval Office meeting on February 28th, Donald Trump asserted that he pressed Ukraine to take appropriate actions to facilitate a peace agreement, minimizing the impact of a prior arms supply pause. He claimed the pause did not negatively affect Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and justified his actions by emphasizing the high human cost of the war. Trump further stated that his involvement stemmed from a humanitarian concern for the loss of life and that the Ukrainian president had shown disrespect. Zelenskyy, however, countered that Ukraine acted appropriately.
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Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto vehemently opposed the EU’s proposed €20 billion aid package for Ukraine, citing objections to using Hungarian taxpayer money for arms shipments. He instead advocated for peace negotiations, aligning with President Trump’s push for a swift settlement. This opposition follows a pattern of Hungarian obstruction to sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine. The EU, while recently extending sanctions against Russia, is increasingly concerned by Hungary’s actions undermining its unified stance on the conflict.
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In a recent address, President Zelensky announced the successful 3,000-kilometer test flight of a new Ukrainian long-range drone. This follows discussions regarding the domestically developed Long Neptune missile, also used to strike deep into Russian territory. The meeting highlighted the need for increased production of both drones and missiles, with plans to discuss this with international partners. Ukraine’s ongoing development of long-range weaponry includes missile-drone hybrids, reflecting a commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities. A goal of producing at least 30,000 long-range drones by 2025 has been set.
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Initially highly effective, Russian glide bombs have become significantly less accurate due to Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. These new jammers, such as the Night Watch team’s Lima system, employ digital interference techniques including jamming, spoofing, and cyberattacks on the bombs’ navigation receivers. This has drastically reduced the effectiveness of Russian glide bomb attacks, forcing them to cease targeting regional centers and significantly impacting their battlefield advances. The resulting decrease in accuracy has led to friendly fire incidents and rendered the munitions far less cost-effective for the Russian military.
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In response to the ongoing war, President Zelensky signed a law enabling the deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces abroad during martial law. This legislation, finalized after presidential amendments and parliamentary approval, facilitates enhanced defense cooperation with partner nations, primarily for training and equipment acquisition. Deployment decisions require presidential approval and parliamentary ratification, subject to detailed mission parameters. Crucially, the law explicitly excludes combat operations on Russian soil.
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Ukraine has reportedly disrupted Russian glide bomb control systems, significantly impacting their battlefield effectiveness. This success, likely achieved through satellite jamming, forces Russia to expend more munitions and sorties for each strike. While Russia possesses countermeasures, the use of unencrypted receivers by many Russian soldiers may explain their vulnerability. This development, coupled with Ukraine’s growing air power from Western allies, could shift the battlefield balance, although the extent depends on continued Western support and access to advanced technologies.
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The EU Foreign Affairs Council will prioritize Ukraine, including a significant military aid package. Positive assessments of recent Ukrainian-American talks were noted, although Russia’s proposed ceasefire terms were deemed insincere, reflecting continued war aims. Discussions will also cover Middle Eastern developments, encompassing the Gaza reconstruction plans and the worrying escalation of violence in Syria. The EU intends to increase support for both regions.
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President Trump announced plans to speak with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, following discussions regarding a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. Negotiators have already begun addressing the division of assets, including land and power plants, with both Ukraine and Russia participating. While Putin has expressed theoretical agreement with a ceasefire, he has also demanded concessions from Ukraine. The ongoing negotiations involve US representatives meeting with officials from both Ukraine and Russia this week.
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Russia’s economy is sharply declining, evidenced by plummeting industrial production and widespread layoffs across various sectors. Record-high interest rates (21%) and the ongoing war in Ukraine are exacerbating the situation, pushing the nation towards a severe economic slowdown. Major corporations, including VK and Gazprom, are implementing significant job cuts, particularly impacting IT and white-collar workers in both large and medium-sized companies. The human cost of the war, with substantial military casualties and a resulting labor shortage, further intensifies this economic crisis, potentially leading to a broader economic collapse.
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John Q. Hosedrinker