According to Ukrainian intelligence, internal Kremlin forecasts predict that continued warfare in Ukraine until 2026 would severely hinder Russia’s global competitiveness, potentially relegating it to a regional power. These forecasts, which reportedly include scenarios extending to 2045, suggest a need for conflict resolution by 2026 to maintain parity with the US and China. The Ukrainian assessment aligns with similar recent statements from other Ukrainian officials. The Kremlin has not commented on these reports.
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Right-wing influencer Tim Pool, who received payments from a Russian-funded media company, Tenet Media, to promote Kremlin narratives, has been granted access to the White House press pool. This decision follows the White House’s removal of the D.C. press corps’ authority to select pool members, opening the door to pro-administration figures while simultaneously barring the Associated Press. Pool’s inclusion, despite allegations of unknowingly participating in a Russian propaganda scheme, raises concerns about journalistic integrity and access to the President. The AP, excluded for refusing to comply with White House demands, now faces limited access, relying on less experienced reporters and potentially biased influencers for coverage.
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On March 20th, a Ukrainian drone strike on the Engels airbase destroyed 96 Kh-101 cruise missiles, representing two months of production and costing Russia an estimated $960 million. This attack, the third on Engels in ten weeks, targeted missiles intended for use against Ukrainian cities. While the damage inflicted is substantial, the long-term military effectiveness of these deep strikes remains questionable, with analysis suggesting many previous attacks on munitions depots had limited impact. Ukraine’s current reliance on its own deep-strike arsenal, while impressive, may not be sufficient for sustained attacks on key Russian infrastructure.
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Receiving the Star of Ukraine Award, Senator McConnell criticized President Trump’s approach to Russia and Ukraine. He expressed concern that some of the president’s advisors lack the commitment necessary to deter Russian aggression, warning of a potential outcome where Russia prevails and the U.S. suffers a defeat. McConnell highlighted the damaging effects of courting adversaries while alienating allies, characterizing such actions as naive and revealing. His remarks come amidst growing European anxieties regarding the Trump administration’s foreign policy.
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During a visit to an Arctic naval base, Vladimir Putin declared his intention to “finish off” Ukraine, asserting Russian forces hold the strategic initiative. He dismissed the size of the British army as insignificant following the announcement of a British-French “reassurance force” for Ukraine. Putin also questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signing any peace agreement, suggesting future elections under external governance might be necessary. This comes as Britain and France, along with Germany, plan to send military chiefs to Ukraine to assess the feasibility of deploying the force, despite some disagreement among European allies.
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Following a summit in Paris, a coalition of willing nations will establish deterrence forces in Ukraine, stationed in strategic areas away from the conflict’s frontlines, potentially near the Dnipro River. These forces, comprising personnel from multiple countries and encompassing land, air, and sea capabilities, will complement—not replace—both Ukrainian forces and potential future peacekeepers. France and Britain will lead military teams to Ukraine to plan the long-term strengthening of its armed forces. The deterrence force’s creation, initiated at Ukraine’s request, remains in its planning stages.
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A new US draft deal proposes near-total American control over Ukraine’s critical minerals, energy assets, and related infrastructure. This significantly escalates previous demands, granting the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund sweeping authority. Ukrainian officials express concerns about the deal’s potential to compromise national sovereignty and increase dependence on the US. The proposal omits security guarantees for Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable. This contrasts sharply with earlier, less extensive proposals.
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The US has presented Ukraine with a revised agreement concerning the management of its natural resources, demanding a joint investment fund overseen by a US-majority board. This significantly expands upon a previous proposal, granting Washington veto power and priority access to revenues and infrastructure projects. Ukrainian officials have strongly criticized the agreement as unfair and potentially detrimental to their sovereignty, citing concerns about resource control and financial dependence on the US. While the deal currently excludes nuclear assets, the possibility of future negotiations regarding nuclear energy infrastructure remains a concern.
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For the first time since joining NATO in March 2024, Sweden has deployed six Jas 39 Gripen fighter jets to Poland for an alliance airspace surveillance mission. These aircraft, specifically designed to counter Russian Sukhoi jets, are based from civilian roads, offering a strategic advantage against potential Russian aggression. This deployment signifies Sweden’s proactive role in bolstering NATO’s eastern flank and reflects the growing concern among alliance members regarding potential Russian aggression in the region. The Gripen’s unique capabilities, including its adaptability and lower maintenance needs, are considered highly valuable in this context.
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John Q. Hosedrinker