Contrary to a Ukrainian intelligence warning, Russia did not launch an RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile on May 18-19. The absence of any publicly available video footage of the launch, despite its likely visibility across a vast Siberian area, suggests the launch did not occur. While the reason remains unknown, this follows two previous failed Yars launches in 2023 and the inherent risk of failure in even advanced missile systems. Defense Express speculates that potential launch complications or a desire to avoid showcasing the inefficiency of Russia’s nuclear deterrent may have influenced the decision.
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Following a meeting in Rome, Australian Prime Minister Albanese confirmed to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy that pledged Abrams tanks are en route to Ukraine. Discussions also covered increasing pressure on Russia, including further sanctions, and the ongoing case of Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins imprisoned in Russia. Separately, Albanese cautiously responded to the European Union’s proposal for a deepened security partnership, suggesting further consideration was needed. Despite delays, the Australian government remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion.
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Ahead of a call with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin reportedly believes Russia will seize four Ukrainian oblasts by 2025, thus possessing leverage against any peace negotiations. This confidence, despite contradicting Western and even some Russian military assessments, fuels Putin’s unwillingness to concede. European officials worry Trump might pressure for a settlement regardless of Putin’s stance, while Putin remains prepared for a protracted conflict. Trump, conversely, seeks a swift resolution and plans to update Zelenskyy and NATO allies following his conversation with Putin.
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The EU approved its 17th sanctions package against Russia, focusing on its “shadow” oil fleet used to circumvent existing export restrictions and targeting approximately 200 tankers. The package also adds dozens of Russian officials to the sanctions list for various offenses, including cyberattacks and human rights abuses. This relatively modest package reflects the increasing difficulty in achieving EU-wide consensus on new sanctions. Further, the EU issued a stark warning of “massive sanctions” should Russia reject a proposed ceasefire in Ukraine, emphasizing the potential for significantly harsher measures in the future.
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Denmark’s 26th military aid package for Ukraine totals $598 million, encompassing artillery, ammunition via a Czech initiative, fighter jet equipment, and enhanced training capabilities. Funding is sourced from the Ukraine Fund and the European Peace Facility, extending support through 2028. This contribution bolsters Ukraine’s ammunition supply and strengthens its long-term defense capacity. The aid reflects Denmark’s continued commitment to supporting Ukraine both militarily and diplomatically.
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Following Russia’s detention of the Green Admire oil tanker in internationally agreed waters, Estonia will reroute maritime traffic to and from Sillamae entirely through its own territorial waters. The Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged tanker, carrying shale oil, was seized while transiting a previously established route through Russian waters. This action, unprecedented in the region, prompted Estonia to inform NATO allies and underscores Russia’s unpredictable behavior. The new route avoids Russian waters altogether, mitigating future risks to Estonian maritime traffic.
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In Rome on May 18th, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held a productive meeting with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The discussion centered on the unrealistic Russian demands presented during Istanbul peace talks, with Zelenskyy emphasizing Ukraine’s commitment to genuine diplomacy and a complete, unconditional ceasefire. He highlighted Russia’s lack of negotiating authority and ceasefire violations, underscoring the need for continued international pressure to compel Russia to end the war. The meeting also covered sanctions, trade, defense cooperation, and prisoner exchanges.
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Rep. Don Bacon confirmed a one-day pause in U.S. cyber operations against Russia during February 2024 negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, contradicting previous Pentagon denials. This pause, typical during such negotiations, was first reported by The Record and later confirmed by multiple U.S. officials to CBS News. The Pentagon’s subsequent denial, issued via its newly created rapid response X account, was labeled a lie by Rep. Eugene Vindman. Bacon’s statement marks the first on-the-record acknowledgment of the directive.
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Following a meeting where Zelenskyy urged a full and unconditional ceasefire, international efforts to end the conflict intensified. While Russia’s recent drone attacks involved significant decoys, Western leaders, including Trump who plans to speak with both Putin and Zelenskyy, are coordinating to pressure Russia into ceasing hostilities. A ceasefire is viewed as the crucial preliminary step before considering further options, with the deployment of peacekeeping troops currently deemed premature.
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Russia launched its largest drone attack of the war, deploying 273 drones overnight on May 18th, resulting in one fatality and three injuries according to initial reports. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 88 drones, while many others likely served as decoys. This attack follows recent, unsuccessful peace talks in Istanbul and precedes a planned call between Presidents Trump and Putin, highlighting Russia’s continued aggression despite international pressure for a ceasefire and Ukraine’s acceptance of a previous truce proposal. Moscow’s demands at the talks remained unchanged and unrealistic, further demonstrating their unwillingness to negotiate seriously.
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John Q. Hosedrinker