German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reportedly discussed the influx of young Ukrainian men into Germany with President Volodymyr Zelensky, advocating for them to return and serve in Ukraine. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion, Germany has taken in the most Ukrainian refugees within the EU, totaling nearly 1.3 million. The increase in young Ukrainian men seeking refuge in Germany has raised concerns amid Ukraine’s ongoing manpower shortages, particularly after Kyiv eased travel rules. Facing political pressure, the German government is also considering adjustments to benefits for Ukrainian refugees to encourage employment.
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According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, Russia intends to recruit approximately 12,000 North Korean laborers to work at its drone production facilities by the end of 2025. These workers are slated for deployment in Alabuga, a special economic zone assembling Shahed- and Geran-type drones. The plan was reportedly discussed during a meeting between Russian officials and a North Korean state firm. Moscow has offered the imported workforce $2.50 per hour for shifts of at least 12 hours.
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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky recently showcased the “Long Neptune” cruise missile, a variant of the original R-360 Neptune, which boasts a range of up to 1,000 kilometers and is being actively used in combat against Russia. This domestically produced missile allows Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory, a strategic move aimed at pressuring the Kremlin and targeting critical assets like oil facilities. Simultaneously, Ukraine is also ramping up the production of its new “Flamingo” cruise missile, which has an estimated range of 3,000 kilometers, to further enhance its long-range strike capabilities. These developments come amid ongoing conflict, with recent overnight strikes by Russia targeting Kyiv and other regions, resulting in casualties and prompting responses from both sides.
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Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced the allocation of almost 6 billion euros to Ukraine during a speech on November 13th. This funding comes under the ERA loan and the Ukraine Facility, supporting Ukraine’s financial needs for the next two years. The EU is exploring multiple options for sustained financial support, including raising funds in capital markets, an intergovernmental agreement, and a reparations loan based on immobilized Russian assets. This strategy aims to ensure long-term support for Ukraine’s defense and economy, sending a clear message to Russia.
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The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has reported thwarting a series of planned terrorist attacks in Kyiv allegedly orchestrated by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). These attacks were intended to destabilize the capital and included plans for explosions in public spaces and assassinations of prominent Ukrainians. The SBU identified a resident of Crimea, recruited by the FSB, as the organizer of the operation, who traveled to Kyiv to recruit individuals and carry out targeted killings. The alleged recruiter has been charged with high treason, terrorism, and illegal handling of weapons but remains at large in Russian-occupied territory.
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On the night of Nov. 13, Ukraine launched a series of long-range strikes against Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and within Russia, utilizing domestically produced weapons, including Flamingo and Bars missiles. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that “several dozen” targets were hit to degrade Russia’s military and logistical capabilities. Key targets included oil storage facilities, airfields, and command posts, as well as sites inside Russia, the full extent of damage yet to be assessed. The Flamingo missile, lauded by President Zelensky, is reported to have a 3,000-kilometer range, while the company that produces the missile, Fire Point, is currently under investigation for allegedly inflating the value or number of the drones it delivers to the army.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the US has largely exhausted its options for imposing new sanctions on Russia, having already targeted major oil companies. The focus will now shift to enforcing existing sanctions, particularly addressing Russia’s “shadow fleet” of vessels used to circumvent oil restrictions, with a call for greater European involvement in this effort. Rubio also commented on the ongoing conflict, stating Russia’s objectives and the missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Finally, the US is in talks with Ukraine to stabilize its energy grid, discussing the provision of equipment and defensive weapons, while acknowledging the challenges of protecting such infrastructure from destruction.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned of Russia’s preparation for a large-scale war in Europe, potentially starting by 2029 or 2030, citing increased Russian military production and a desire to continue the conflict. Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for increased pressure on Russia, particularly through sanctions, especially targeting energy exports. These warnings align with those of other European leaders, prompting increased defense spending and efforts to bolster Europe’s defense capabilities, despite concerns about readiness and dependence on U.S. security guarantees.
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The discount on Russian Urals crude versus Brent surged to $19.40 per barrel on November 10th, the highest in a year, according to Kommersant citing industry sources. This increase followed new US sanctions targeting Russian energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft. Previously, discounts had reached a peak of $31.90 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022. Key buyers like India and China are reportedly reducing Russian crude imports, and declines in exports have been the steepest since January 2024.
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The skies above Pokrovsk, Ukraine, are heavily saturated with drones, making military movement risky. However, recent foggy weather has allowed Russian forces to infiltrate the city using motorcycles and vehicles, as evidenced by social media footage. Ukrainian military experts estimate a significant Russian troop presence in the city, with a pincer-like strategy underway to encircle Pokrovsk. The constant threat of drones forces both sides to alter logistics and tactics, with Ukrainian forces outnumbered and fighting for control amidst a dwindling civilian population.
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John Q. Hosedrinker