The discount on Russian Urals crude versus Brent surged to $19.40 per barrel on November 10th, the highest in a year, according to Kommersant citing industry sources. This increase followed new US sanctions targeting Russian energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft. Previously, discounts had reached a peak of $31.90 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022. Key buyers like India and China are reportedly reducing Russian crude imports, and declines in exports have been the steepest since January 2024.
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The skies above Pokrovsk, Ukraine, are heavily saturated with drones, making military movement risky. However, recent foggy weather has allowed Russian forces to infiltrate the city using motorcycles and vehicles, as evidenced by social media footage. Ukrainian military experts estimate a significant Russian troop presence in the city, with a pincer-like strategy underway to encircle Pokrovsk. The constant threat of drones forces both sides to alter logistics and tactics, with Ukrainian forces outnumbered and fighting for control amidst a dwindling civilian population.
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During a recent interview, a co-leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party suggested that Poland poses a similar threat to Germany as Russia, citing differing economic interests and a recent extradition refusal. This statement follows the AfD’s history of downplaying Nazi crimes and its opposition to a memorial for Polish victims of World War II. The comments were quickly condemned by a politician from the Christian Democratic Union. This is not the first instance of criticism against the AfD, as the party has been accused of pro-Russian sympathies and has previously faced controversy for its actions and statements regarding Russia.
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President Zelenskyy received a report from the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, detailing the impact of pressure on Russia’s energy sector. This pressure has resulted in a decline in Russia’s oil production and refining, leading to a decrease in oil and gas revenue. This year Russia will lose at least $37 billion in oil and gas income, limiting their war efforts. Furthermore, Zelenskyy discussed measures for the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia.
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Ukraine’s justice minister was suspended following an investigation into a $100 million kickback scheme within the energy sector, allegedly involving a close associate of President Zelenskyy and a former deputy prime minister. Authorities exposed a “high-level criminal organization” where officials and businesspeople are accused of receiving benefits and laundering money through the state energy company, Energoatom. The probe has led to the arrest of five individuals, with seven others under suspicion, and has prompted Zelenskyy to emphasize the importance of accountability and upholding trust in government. This investigation highlights the ongoing struggle with corruption within Ukraine’s government, even as the country battles to maintain Western support during the war with Russia.
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Czech President Petr Pavel, a former NATO Military Committee chairman, has cautioned that NATO must respond decisively to Russian airspace violations, as Moscow perceives restraint as weakness. Pavel believes Russia is actively testing NATO’s air defenses to gauge both individual and collective capabilities, aiming to assess the Alliance’s resolve. He pointed to past incidents, such as Russia’s repeated violations over Turkey, highlighting how a strong response ultimately deterred further aggression. In a related incident, Belgium’s military was ordered to shoot down any unidentified drones over its military bases after a drone sighting near a nuclear power plant.
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To obscure his true location, Vladimir Putin has been utilizing three nearly identical offices across Russia, particularly since the invasion of Ukraine. Investigators, using details like door handle alignment and wall seam variations, found that many meetings attributed to Novo-Ogaryovo were actually filmed in Valdai, a heavily fortified residence. This practice, intensified after 2014 and during the COVID-19 pandemic, reflects a system designed to prioritize Putin’s personal security and comfort. Despite rare returns to other locations, Valdai remains the core of his presidential activity, indicating that the use of decoy offices has become an institutionalized practice within the Kremlin.
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On November 12, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces conducted a successful fire attack on the Lukoil-owned Stavrolen petrochemical enterprise in Budyonnovsk, southern Russia, using drones from the Deep Strike unit. While Russian air defenses intercepted 22 drones, including some over Stavropol Krai, the strike resulted in numerous explosions and a fire at the target. The Stavrolen plant, a major producer of petrochemical products, reportedly produces components used in Russian military equipment. This attack is part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to disrupt Russia’s oil and gas production, impacting its war efforts.
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The Ulyanovsk region of Russia will indefinitely lack mobile internet access due to federal restrictions implemented “to ensure state security,” according to regional officials. These restrictions, affecting residential areas and businesses, are mandated by Moscow and will remain in place “until the end of the war against Ukraine”. While the government emphasizes these are permanent security measures, residents are encouraged to utilize available public Wi-Fi hotspots and a “white list” of accessible online services. This move follows a new federal decision to expand security zones around strategic facilities in response to perceived threats, and comes as new decrees require telecommunication providers to terminate user access based on FSB requests.
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John Q. Hosedrinker