On August 4, the price of Ai-95 gasoline reached a record high on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, exceeding 77,000 rubles per ton. This price surge is attributed to recent Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian oil refineries, particularly the one in Ryazan Oblast. These attacks have damaged facilities, potentially impacting the processing of 40,000 tons of crude oil per day and requiring extensive repairs. This price increase occurs shortly after Russia implemented a gasoline export ban to stabilize the domestic market, with prior bans implemented to address fuel shortages and high prices.
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According to Czech President Petr Pavel, the temporary Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory may be a necessary sacrifice for Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign nation. He believes that the West should not pressure Ukraine to immediately liberate all occupied areas, recognizing that doing so could lead to unacceptable human losses. Pavel suggests that focusing on economic pressure from Europe and the United States is a more effective strategy to bring Moscow to the negotiating table, as the Russian economy cannot withstand such pressure indefinitely. He maintains that while military aid should continue, a battlefield victory is unlikely, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic and economic solutions.
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Following the collapse of the INF Treaty, Russia declared it would no longer adhere to its “self-restrictions” on deploying medium- and short-range missiles. The Russian Foreign Ministry cited a lack of reciprocity and listed alleged violations as justification for this decision. These self-imposed limitations were initially adopted after the U.S. and Russia withdrew from the INF Treaty in August 2019, with each side accusing the other of treaty violations. Consequently, Russia now views the conditions for maintaining its moratorium on these weapons as obsolete.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on August 4th that foreign mercenaries from China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and several African countries are fighting alongside Russian forces near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. This statement was based on reports from Ukrainian soldiers defending the area, which has seen intense fighting since Russia’s offensive in May 2024. Zelensky discussed battlefield conditions, troop requirements, and combat operations, including drone use and brigade funding, during a visit to the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. Notably, reports indicate Russia has been actively recruiting foreign nationals, with China denying involvement despite evidence of Chinese nationals fighting on the Russian side.
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Overnight, Ukrainian drones from the SBU’s CSO “A” unit struck the Saky airfield in occupied Crimea, resulting in significant damage. The attack completely destroyed a Su-30SM fighter jet and severely damaged another, along with hitting three Su-24 bombers and an ammunition depot. The SBU stated the special operation aims to weaken Russia’s military infrastructure, with estimated losses potentially reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. This strike follows a larger operation targeting Russian airfields, further demonstrating Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russian operations.
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India has responded to former US President Donald Trump’s threat to increase tariffs on Indian goods due to continued oil imports from Russia, deeming it “unjustified and unreasonable.” The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) defended India’s energy strategy, citing market conditions as the reason for crude oil purchases from Russia. The MEA also highlighted that other countries, including the US and EU, continue trade with Russia, while pointing out the disparity. India emphasized that it is taking all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security while maintaining a commitment to trade negotiations.
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On August 4, Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile system in the occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. The S-300 is a crucial long-range system used by Russia for both air defense and attacks on Ukrainian territory, impacting both military positions and civilian infrastructure. The destruction of this system significantly degrades Russia’s long-range fire capabilities within the region. This action is part of an ongoing effort by Ukrainian forces to systematically dismantle key components of Russia’s military infrastructure.
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Ukraine claims its military intelligence agency has obtained classified information on Russia’s new Project 955A Borei-class submarine, the Knyaz Pozharsky, which entered service recently. The data includes crew lists, diagrams of survivability systems, and operational instructions, potentially revealing vulnerabilities of the submarine, a key component of Russia’s nuclear triad. The HUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, published documents allegedly obtained from the breach, aiming to expose technical limitations of this advanced vessel. This operation could be a setback for the Russian Navy, especially given the submarine’s strategic importance.
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A Ukrainian drone attack on an oil depot near Sochi, Russia, resulted in a significant fire, prompting flight disruptions, while another drone strike in the Voronezh region caused injuries. Russia reported shooting down numerous Ukrainian drones and missiles, and in response, launched missile strikes on residential areas in Mykolaiv, Ukraine. Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement to exchange 1,200 prisoners, with preparations underway for the swap following negotiations in Istanbul. This prisoner exchange, while a positive step, is still separate from any lasting ceasefire agreements between the two countries.
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On August 4th, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) launched a drone strike on an airfield in Russian-occupied Crimea, destroying a Su-30SM aircraft, damaging another, hitting three Su-24s, and striking an aviation weapons depot. This operation, a mission of Special Operations Center “A,” targeted the Saky airbase, crucial for Russian military operations in the Black Sea. The SBU deemed the damage “significant,” considering the value of a single Su-30SM jet to be between $35 and $50 million. This is one of many successful drone operations against Russian targets, including air bases and naval vessels.
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John Q. Hosedrinker