Canada’s real GDP fell 0.2 per cent in February, primarily due to a 0.6 per cent decline in goods-producing industries, particularly mining and oil and gas extraction. While service-producing industries also contracted slightly, the manufacturing and finance sectors showed growth. However, early March data suggests a 0.1 per cent GDP increase, pointing towards a moderate 1.5 per cent annualized growth rate for the first quarter. Experts attribute February’s decline largely to severe winter weather, but anticipate potential economic headwinds from the ongoing US-China trade war in the second quarter.
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Despite months of intense fighting and slow, incremental gains south of Pokrovsk, Russia’s attempt to capture the strategically important Ukrainian town has failed, according to a Ukrainian think tank head. Moscow’s advances have been thwarted by effective Ukrainian defenses, disrupting Russia’s planned summer offensive and timeline. High Russian casualties, consistent with their “meat grinder” tactics, underscore the failure. While Russia claims recent territorial gains, Ukraine reports repelling numerous attacks and maintains control of Pokrovsk.
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President Putin’s unwavering demand for complete control over four partially occupied Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—has stalled U.S.-mediated ceasefire negotiations. This maximalist position, rejecting a U.S. proposal to freeze hostilities along current front lines, necessitates direct communication between Presidents Putin and Trump to overcome the impasse. The Kremlin’s refusal to compromise, despite U.S. proposals including security guarantees and sanctions relief for Ukraine, has led to significant frustration within the White House and prompted calls for a tougher approach from European allies. The failure to achieve a permanent ceasefire by the initial April 30 deadline underscores the significant challenges in reaching a peace agreement.
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Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed the removal of The Resistance Front (TRF) from a UN Security Council statement condemning the Pahalgam attack, citing a lack of supporting evidence for TRF’s alleged involvement and contesting its classification as a terrorist group. He defended Pakistan’s actions, emphasizing the need for mentioning Jammu and Kashmir alongside Pahalgam and rejecting claims of TRF responsibility for the attack as false. Dar stated that Pakistan’s objections delayed the statement’s finalization, despite international pressure to reach a consensus. He characterized TRF as a local forum, a byproduct of the 2019 revocation of Article 370.
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Following a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Pakistan initiated cross-border firing along both the Line of Control and, exceptionally, the International Border in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pargawal sector. This escalation, marking the sixth consecutive day of ceasefire violations, comes amid plummeting India-Pakistan relations. India has retaliated to the attacks, and the situation is further complicated by India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and other bilateral agreements. The UN Secretary-General has condemned the attack and urged both nations to avoid further escalation.
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Construction of a 4.7-kilometer road bridge connecting Russia and North Korea has commenced in Primorsky Krai, Russia, with completion anticipated within 18 months. This project, undertaken by a Sochi-based company, will supplement existing rail and air links, significantly boosting cargo and passenger transport between the two nations. The bridge itself spans one kilometer, incorporating a seven-meter-wide roadway, and will feature a nearby car checkpoint. This development follows the December 2024 strategic cooperation treaty and North Korea’s military support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
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France has formally accused Russia’s military intelligence, specifically the GRU’s APT28 group (also known as Fancy Bear), of conducting a wide-ranging cyberattack campaign targeting French interests. This campaign included the 2017 hacking of Emmanuel Macron’s presidential campaign, the 2015 attack on TV5Monde, and recent intrusions into organizations involved in the 2024 Paris Olympics and various other sectors. The attacks, which aimed to manipulate public opinion and gather strategic intelligence, have been ongoing since at least 2021. France, in conjunction with international partners, vows to counter this malicious cyber activity.
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The European Parliament’s decision to resume engagement with China follows the lifting of sanctions imposed on five MEPs in 2021. This resumption, however, is not without caveats, as significant concerns remain regarding China’s trade practices, including market distortions and restrictive access barriers. Despite the renewed dialogue, MEPs maintain their critical stance on China’s human rights record and industrial policies. Obstacles to a positive EU-China trade relationship persist, necessitating further discussions on these key issues.
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President Zelensky warned of potential Russian military aggression this summer, disguised as joint military exercises with Belarus, citing historical precedent. These exercises, particularly Zapad 2025, could serve as cover for assembling offensive forces, mirroring the lead-up to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi corroborated this assessment, highlighting the use of exercises for covert troop relocation and concentration. Zelensky’s concerns extend beyond Ukraine, with previous warnings of potential Russian offensives against NATO countries.
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Following a militant attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, that killed 26 tourists, tensions between India and Pakistan have dramatically escalated. Pakistan’s Information Minister claimed India plans imminent military action, a claim India’s defense ministry has yet to address. Both the US and China have urged restraint amid this heightened conflict, marked by tit-for-tat actions including diplomatic expulsions and the suspension of a crucial water-sharing treaty. The situation is further complicated by recent military exercises and accusations of espionage by both nations.
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John Q. Hosedrinker