Pollster Ivan Moore predicts that Republican Senator Ted Cruz will lose his Texas Senate seat to Democrat Representative Colin Allred in the upcoming election. The close race could determine which party controls the Senate. Though some recent polls show Cruz leading by between one and seven points, others suggest Allred could outperform him. The Dallas Morning News, the state’s top newspaper by daily circulation, endorsed Allred in a front-page editorial last month, and state politics has been influenced by Democrats in recent electoral cycles. Moore made the bold prediction via Twitter.
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A recent poll prediction showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa has sparked a dramatic shift in election prediction markets. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by highly respected pollster Ann Selzer, found Harris three points up on Trump among likely voters. Consequently, markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt, which had previously favored Trump, saw a decrease in his winning probability. Over $174 million has been traded on Kalshi alone related to the election, and Harris’s chances of victory have increased almost 10 points within the span of a week. Despite another favorable poll for Trump, analysts consider the Selzer survey significant due to the accuracy and credibility of previous results.
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A surprising turnaround in Iowa sees Democrat Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 47% to 44% in a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, despite Iowa’s swing to the right in recent elections. The shift towards Harris is primarily driven by older and politically independent women. Trump however continues to lead with his core base, which includes men, evangelicals, rural residents, and non-college graduates. The poll was conducted from October 28-31 among 808 likely voters, including those who have already voted and those planning to. This development comes as a surprise given the state’s recent electoral history favoring Trump.
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A final poll before Election Day shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump in Iowa by three points, a significant swing from the double-digit lead Trump had over Joe Biden in June. The survey suggests Harris’ popularity surge is partly due to support from older women and independent voters, with her lead among women aged 65 and older being more than two times. Meanwhile, Trump continues to lead among Iowans between 35 and 54 years of age. Democrats aren’t surprised by the poll’s findings, suggesting it aligns with sentiments heard from various voter groups in Iowa. However, the Trump Campaign and Iowa GOP Chair, Jeff Kauffman, dispute the accuracy of this poll, citing an Emerson College poll that shows Trump still leading.
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Vice President Kamala Harris has made an unexpected trip to New York to appear on “Saturday Night Live” (SNL), three days before the election. Harris left for New York after a campaign stop in North Carolina, with her aides confirming the change of plan after Air Force Two had taken off. Harris’ appearance on the show was confirmed by three unidentified sources. Actor Maya Rudolph has been playing Harris on SNL since 2019, a performance that has received critical acclaim, including from Harris herself. Harris’ husband is played by former SNL cast member Andy Samberg, while Dana Carvey portrays President Joe Biden.
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Actor Harrison Ford has endorsed Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the US presidential election, releasing three videos as part of the Harris-Walz campaign. The Star Wars and Indiana Jones actor communicated his frustrations about division in the country and the perceived embracing of global dictators under President Trump. Ford emphasised the important democratic process of disagreement and debate, asserting that “what we need is to work together again.” Although Ford admits to not fully aligning with all of Harris and Walz’s policies, he stands behind their beliefs in science, rule of law and governance for all Americans. He joins a list of celebrities, such as LeBron James and Cardi B, endorsing the vice president and Minnesota governor.
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Shares in Donald Trump’s social media outlet, Trump Media, have lost about 41% of their value in just three days, based on slowing expectations about the former president’s re-election prospects. The shares, which trade under the ticker “DJT”, have become a barometer of how traders think the presidential election will turn out. The company’s shares, which quadrupled in value between 23 September and Tuesday’s closing bell, from $10.3bn to $5.9bn, have been extraordinarily volatile all year. Despite a relatively tiny user base, at one point Trump Media was briefly worth more than Twitter. George Kailas, CEO of Prospero.ai, explained that this is typical behaviour for a meme stock.
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The Trump campaign has filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint and a $10 billion lawsuit against the Washington Post and CBS respectively, accusing them of election interference. Despite losing over 250,000 subscribers, the Post had chosen not to endorse any presidential candidate, dismissing a prepared endorsement of Kamala Harris due to an order from its owner, Jeff Bezos. The Trump campaign alleges that CBS favorably edited a 60 Minutes interview with Harris, which they claim amounts to election interference. This comes after Trump expressed dissatisfaction with his performance at ABC’s presidential debate with Harris, going as far as calling for ABC’s license to be revoked. In the run up to the election, Trump’s media attacks appear to be strategic attempts to get favorable coverage and undermine faith in political journalism.
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Donald Trump is reportedly experiencing anxiety and sleep loss due to his concern over polling numbers as he hopes to return to the White House. Trump has been pressuring his staff to work harder to ensure his victory against Vice President Kamala Harris on Election Day. Some of Trump’s fears were alleviated when his chief pollster, Tony Fabrizio, produced a memo suggesting that he was in a stronger position to win the election compared to past campaigns, but there are concerns that bias could be influencing these results. Trump is not the only one in his party worried about voter turnout and the numbers, with Republican figures stressing the importance of male voter turnout in ensuring a Trump win. Meanwhile, Harris’s campaign team predicts a narrow win for her come Tuesday.
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Liz Cheney is urging former president George W. Bush to speak out against Donald Trump. During an interview on The New Yorker Radio Hour podcast, she stated that she can’t explain why Bush hasn’t spoken out yet, but she thinks it’s time he does. Cheney’s comments were recorded before Trump made controversial comments about her. Cheney’s father, former vice president Dick Cheney, served under Bush and has expressed his disapproval of Trump, declaring he should never be trusted with power again. However, Bush has kept silent on Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric.
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John Q. Hosedrinker