Betting markets, such as Kalshi, are offering odds on various scenarios surrounding President Trump’s second term, including a controversial third term (currently at 10% probability) despite constitutional limitations. Simultaneously, the likelihood of impeachment and removal from office has risen from 12% to 17% since his inauguration. These odds are dynamically updated daily, reflecting the volatility of the early weeks of his presidency. Market fluctuations directly correlate with President Trump’s actions and policy decisions.
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Trump’s proposed CIA restructuring prioritizes heightened surveillance, particularly targeting China, and a more aggressive stance against drug cartels, potentially designating them as terrorist organizations. This plan, involving a controversial buyout of unspecified CIA personnel, raises concerns about the President’s authority to unilaterally allocate funds for such actions. Legal experts question the legality of this buyout, citing a lack of statutory authorization. The move is widely seen as another attempt to install loyalists within the federal bureaucracy, potentially stifling dissent and independent operations.
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Friedrich Merz, leading in German election polls, declared the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) his most significant opponent, vowing never to cooperate with them. This follows controversy surrounding a parliamentary motion, passed with AfD support, that sparked widespread protests and accusations of Merz compromising his party’s principles. Merz maintains his tough stance on migration is unchanged and insists his party will not form a government with the AfD, rejecting accusations of untrustworthiness. He blames the governing coalition for the necessity of seeking AfD votes.
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President Trump’s proposal to have the United States “take over” the Gaza Strip and relocate its Palestinian residents drew immediate and widespread condemnation. The plan, unveiled alongside Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, involved the U.S. assuming responsibility for redeveloping Gaza and creating new Palestinian settlements elsewhere. This proposal was rejected by numerous international allies and adversaries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Australia, who reiterated their support for a two-state solution. Criticism ranged from accusations of ethnic cleansing to concerns about the U.S.’s role as a reliable international partner. Hamas also denounced the plan as a recipe for regional instability.
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Representative Al Green filed articles of impeachment against President Trump, citing the president’s statement suggesting the U.S. “take over” the Gaza Strip as a threat of ethnic cleansing. This action, Green’s fourth impeachment attempt against Trump, comes just weeks into Trump’s second term and follows a similar statement made by Trump alongside Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. House Speaker Mike Johnson defended Trump’s statement, while other representatives downplayed Green’s efforts. Given the Republican majority in the House, the impeachment articles face an uphill battle.
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Two lawsuits allege that the Department of Justice (DOJ) violated FBI agents’ First Amendment rights and the Privacy Act by compiling and circulating their identities in connection with January 6th and classified documents investigations. Agents fear potential retaliation, including termination, demotion, or denial of opportunities, from both direct Trump-related actions and indirect actions by DOJ loyalists potentially sharing this information with his supporters. The lawsuits aim to prevent further collection and dissemination of this sensitive information. The FBI Agents Association is also involved, amplifying concerns about the potential exposure of agents’ personal information and the risk of reprisal.
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A second federal judge issued a nationwide preliminary injunction against President Trump’s executive order attempting to end birthright citizenship, deeming it likely unconstitutional. The judge’s ruling cites the order’s conflict with the 14th Amendment, established Supreme Court precedent, and contradicts over two centuries of US birthright citizenship practices. The injunction, granted in response to a lawsuit filed by pregnant women and immigrant-rights groups, will remain in effect pending further legal proceedings. The administration is expected to appeal, potentially leading the case to the Supreme Court.
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Following Donald Trump’s proposal to displace Palestinians from Gaza and place the territory under US control, Keir Starmer stressed the necessity of allowing Palestinians to return home and rebuild. This stance, echoed by the UK Foreign Secretary, contradicts Trump’s plan, widely condemned as ethnic cleansing. While acknowledging the need for Gaza’s reconstruction, both Starmer and Lammy affirmed the UK’s commitment to a two-state solution, highlighting the delicate balance between maintaining US relations and condemning Trump’s proposal. The UK government has made clear its opposition to Trump’s plan.
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The Trump administration placed all USAID staff on administrative leave, with exceptions for essential personnel, effectively shutting down the agency. This action follows weeks of chaos, including the agency’s website being taken offline and the initiation of a plan to withdraw all overseas personnel. The abrupt recall of overseas staff presents significant logistical and financial challenges, impacting thousands of employees and their families. This decision, driven by President Trump and advisor Elon Musk, is despite accusations of corruption lacking concrete evidence, leaving many fearing detrimental consequences for U.S. foreign relations.
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A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order blocking the Trump administration’s directive to transfer transgender women inmates to men’s facilities and cease hormone therapy. The order, granted in response to a lawsuit filed by three transgender women, cites the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment, arguing that such transfers would endanger the plaintiffs. The judge found the government’s arguments insufficient to justify immediate relocation, noting the low number of transgender women in women’s prisons and the lack of evidence of threats posed by the plaintiffs. This ruling surpasses a prior, narrower injunction concerning a single transgender woman.
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John Q. Hosedrinker