By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The recent defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a figure embraced by many U.S. conservatives and President Trump, carries significant implications for American politics. Orbán, known for his anti-immigrant stance and consolidation of power through control of media and the judiciary, had been a model for those seeking to replicate his “illiberal democracy” in the United States. His loss serves as a reminder that even entrenched leaders can be ousted, and that the global political landscape is marked by widespread discontent with incumbents. This outcome also highlights the diminished influence of U.S. political figures abroad, particularly amid international conflicts.
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The recent electoral setback for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a figure often lauded and emulated within certain right-wing circles, is sending ripples through the American conservative landscape, particularly impacting Donald Trump and his allies. It’s a development that suggests a potential shift in momentum, a chink in the armor of a political ideology that has seen a surge in recent years. The narrative being discussed is that this loss might signal the beginning of the end for the rise of conservative power, unless, of course, people are perfectly content with the current trajectory of global politics.
For a long time, Orbán has been presented as a model for a particular brand of “illiberal democracy,” a system he began constructing upon his return to power in 2010. He implemented policies that consolidated his authority, including building a border wall to stop migrants, curtailing LGBTQ+ rights, suppressing press freedom, and undermining judicial independence. This consolidation was significantly aided by a constitutional rewrite following the 2010 global recession, which allowed for the restructuring of the judiciary to favor party loyalists, gerrymandering of electoral districts, and the transfer of media companies to allied tycoons. This authoritarian playbook, so to speak, has been admired by some in the US.
The admiration for Orbán’s model among some US conservatives stems from his perceived success in normalizing absolute rule, a style that some argue is being mirrored by Donald Trump in the United States. He’s seen as someone who effectively consolidated power, suppressed dissent, and dismantled democratic institutions. The hope now is that this electoral defeat in Hungary indicates a growing disenchantment with these far-right, faux-populist leaders who often exploit cultural grievances, conspiracy theories, and nativist sentiments to mobilize their base, only to then abuse their power and act in self-serving ways.
An open association with Donald Trump, it seems, is increasingly becoming a political kiss of death. This is a sentiment echoed in observations that right-wing voters are often the last to recognize when their leaders might be aligned with problematic foreign actors, much like how some believe Trump himself has been in Putin’s pocket. Orbán’s concession of defeat, which some note with surprise, contrasts with the typical behavior of those deeply entrenched in power, and it’s this kind of behavior that some hope will become more commonplace among leaders who fail to secure public trust.
The implications for Trump and his allies are significant, as his endorsement appears to be losing its Midas touch, turning into a “kiss of death” for those he supports. The hope is that this trend will continue, leading to a potential downfall for Trump and the MAGA movement, suggesting that the tide might be turning in geopolitics. The upcoming US midterms are seen by some as a potential turning point, where Trump and his allies might experience further setbacks, prompting a wider uncoupling from his influence.
The success of leaders like Orbán and figures like Bolsonaro, who employed a more theatrical approach, highlights a certain strategy that some see as failing. The idea that these leaders, who promised bold solutions and appealed to culture war grievances, ultimately fail to serve their voters’ best interests, is gaining traction. They are perceived as hypocrites who will do anything to maintain power, even if it means aligning with foreign autocrats and eroding democratic norms. This realization, it is hoped, will lead to a rejection of such leadership.
There’s a prevailing sentiment that the “Trump endorsement” is a political liability, and that his project is increasingly in ruins. This is particularly relevant given the context of the war in Ukraine and the potential for increased European cooperation without a veto from a leader perceived as aligning with Russia. The observation that those who loudly called for certain actions at the beginning of conflicts are now suspiciously quiet speaks volumes about shifting public and political sentiment.
The hope is that this defeat in Hungary is a step towards a more global shift away from the rise of authoritarianism. However, it’s important to acknowledge that the appeal of “conservative” ideas remains, and that the extreme fringe, like Trump and MAGA, might not be as broadly popular as their loudest proponents suggest. There’s a cyclical nature to politics, where voters might swing left and then back to conservatives, but the current context offers a glimmer of hope for a lasting change.
Ultimately, the hope is that people are recognizing that these types of leaders are not acting in their best interests, that they are self-serving, and that their embrace of authoritarianism and cozying up with foreign autocrats is detrimental to democracy. The argument is that the information landscape is becoming more accessible, and that conservatives are slowly realizing the negative implications of their alignment. This could lead to a significant shift towards the left by 2027, though the concept of “conservative” itself might persist.
It’s crucial to differentiate between genuine conservatives and those perceived as fraudsters who have co-opted a political idea for personal gain. The analogy of a domestic abuse situation, where a victim continues to believe in their abuser, is used to describe the difficulty some have in separating a political idea from a charismatic but harmful leader. This is why some view Trump as the “Jim Jones of the Republican Party,” a figure who has corrupted the core principles of conservatism.
While some believe Orbán’s defeat has no impact on US conservatives, others see it affecting Trump and his cronies. The question remains whether this electoral outcome will truly influence the broader conservative movement in the US or merely serve as a talking point for those already critical of Trump and his ilk. The hope is that this event is more than just a minor hiccup, but a significant indicator of a broader political realignment.