By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky advocates for both Ukraine and Belarus to join the European Union, envisioning peaceful relations between the two nations once the Russian invasion concludes and Belarus has a “free leadership.” He believes EU membership is beneficial economically, geopolitically, and for independence, acknowledging that it must be the choice of the Belarusian people. Currently, EU-Belarus relations are at a nadir due to Minsk’s support for Russia’s war, while Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations are progressing, though hindered by ongoing member state discussions.
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The idea of Ukraine and Belarus becoming allies within the European Union, as envisioned by Volodymyr Zelensky, is certainly an ambitious and thought-provoking one. It’s not just about a simple desire for shared borders, but a deeper strategic consideration. Given that Belarus shares a significant border with Ukraine, it logically follows that any Ukrainian leader would prefer that neighboring country to be a friendly ally rather than a tool for their primary adversary, Russia. This perspective highlights a practical, security-oriented motivation behind such a proposal.
However, the immediate reality of Belarus joining the EU presents a considerable challenge, and frankly, many seem to doubt its feasibility in the foreseeable future. There’s a strong sentiment that for Belarus to even be considered for EU membership, fundamental changes are needed. This includes the removal of its current pro-Russian leadership and the cessation of Russian influence that props up the existing regime. The prevailing view is that Belarus, in its current state, is effectively under Russian control, with its leader playing a delicate game of appeasement with both the EU and Russia, but ultimately subservient to Moscow.
Furthermore, neighboring countries like Lithuania express significant reservations. The idea of Belarus joining the EU is met with strong opposition, largely stemming from concerns about historical narratives and potential political instability. There’s a call for Belarus to stop falsifying history and to embrace transparent, democratic governance before any accession talks could even begin. The hope is for a future where Eastern European nations, including Belarus, are governed by democratic principles, which implies a departure from current leadership and a break from Russian influence.
The notion of a “free and derussified” Belarus is central to this aspiration. It’s recognized that Ukraine and Belarus share historical roots, having been part of a similar cultural and political sphere until relatively recently. The historical divergence arose due to different occupying powers, Poland and Lithuania. This shared past suggests a potential for strong future connections, but only if Belarus undergoes a significant internal transformation. Some recall Belarus’s previous attempts to align more closely with Ukraine, which were ultimately thwarted by Russian intervention in supporting Lukashenko’s continued rule.
The current geopolitical climate makes the prospect of Belarus in the EU particularly complex. The ongoing war in Ukraine has already created a volatile situation, and the potential aftermath could see a large number of hardened soldiers without a clear path in peacetime society. This could lead to a scenario where mercenaries are readily available, potentially for destabilizing actions against neighboring regimes. Therefore, a friendly and democratic Belarus on Ukraine’s border is seen as a crucial element for regional stability.
Despite these challenges, the underlying sentiment expressed by many is a desire for positive, forward-looking relations in Eastern Europe. It’s important to clarify that when discussions of Belarus’s future within the EU arise, they are often in the context of conversations with Belarusian opposition figures, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. She represents an anti-Lukashenko and anti-Putin stance, indicating that the vision is not for a Belarus under its current leadership to join the EU, but rather for a democratic and independent Belarus to eventually integrate.
The path to EU membership for any country is a long and arduous one, requiring significant legal and cultural alignment. For Belarus, this journey is seen as particularly challenging given its current political trajectory. While some advocate for a swift transition, drawing parallels to Spain’s rapid shift from dictatorship to EU membership, others point to the deep-seated nature of current political structures in post-Soviet states, where even after regime change, established networks and influences can persist.
Ultimately, the vision of Ukraine and Belarus as allies within the EU is presented not as a demand, but as a hopeful aspiration for a more stable and democratic future for the region. It hinges on the belief that the Belarusian people themselves desire a different path than the one currently imposed upon them. The possibility of such an alliance, while distant, is seen as a strategic imperative for Ukraine’s long-term security and for the broader geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe. It’s a vision that requires a significant departure from the current state of affairs in Belarus, but one that reflects a deep-seated desire for a break from Russian influence and a closer integration with the democratic West.