By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Despite a month-long campaign, the US has only destroyed approximately a third of Iran’s ballistic missile and drone arsenal, according to Reuters. Intelligence suggests another third may be damaged or hidden in underground facilities, leaving Iran with a significant remaining stockpile that contradicts US claims of eliminated capabilities. This assessment stands in contrast to recent statements by former President Trump and other US officials, highlighting the ongoing challenges in degrading Iran’s deterrent missile program, which continues to be utilized against regional adversaries and has necessitated substantial defensive expenditures.
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Intelligence suggests that the United States has only managed to destroy roughly a third of Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, despite a sustained campaign aimed at significantly degrading these capabilities. This assessment, which comes from sources familiar with US intelligence, paints a different picture than some official pronouncements, hinting that the complete neutralization of Iran’s missile threat remains a distant goal.
The core of this intelligence indicates that about one-third of Iran’s missiles are believed to have been destroyed. However, a significant portion of the remaining arsenal, possibly another third, is thought to be inaccessible. This inaccessibility stems from damage incurred during strikes or from being buried deep underground in tunnels and bunkers, making their immediate status uncertain and their recovery unlikely. A similar situation is believed to apply to Iran’s drone capabilities.
This nuanced picture contrasts sharply with claims made by some US officials, including former President Trump, who suggested that Iran had “very few rockets left” and that its ballistic missile capabilities had been effectively eliminated. The intelligence reports imply that while many missiles might be out of immediate reach, Iran likely still possesses a substantial stockpile, raising questions about the overall effectiveness of the military operations to date.
The strategic importance of Iran’s ballistic missile program is underscored by Iranian officials who view it as a crucial deterrent, especially given the significant military advantages held by the United States and Israel. For Iran, these missiles represent a key means of projecting power and countering potential threats from regional adversaries.
In the past month, Iran has indeed utilized its ballistic missiles and drones to inflict considerable damage, targeting infrastructure in Israel and key energy facilities in the Gulf. These attacks have had a notable impact on the global economy, highlighting the ongoing threat posed by Iran’s advanced weaponry.
Degrading Iran’s ballistic missile capacity has been identified as a primary objective by both the US and Israel. To achieve this, the US has bolstered its military presence in the Middle East and is reportedly considering ground operations. The overarching aim includes ensuring the unimpeded flow of maritime traffic, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for global energy supplies.
The challenges in fully assessing and neutralizing Iran’s missile stockpile are significant. Much of Iran’s arsenal is known to be stored in extensive underground tunnel networks, making destruction difficult and verification of destruction even more so. US officials themselves have acknowledged the difficulty in obtaining precise numbers regarding Iran’s missile inventory due to these concealed storage methods.
While the focus of the military operations has been on destroying missiles, some observers point out that the launchers are equally, if not more, critical for Iran’s missile deployment. The effectiveness of any missile strike hinges on the availability of functional launch systems. It’s suggested that a more accurate measure of success might involve tracking the destruction of these launchers, as missiles themselves are rendered inert without them.
The ongoing conflict has also led to a decline in the number of missile launches from Iran. However, despite continued bombing campaigns, Iran has still managed to strike targets in Israel and the Gulf. This persistence, even as interceptor stocks are depleted by the US, Israel, and Gulf states, underscores the scale of the challenge in completely neutralizing Iran’s missile threat. The financial and strategic implications of these ongoing missile exchanges are substantial, involving billions spent and critical interceptor resources consumed.
The complexity of the situation also brings into question how readily Iran can replenish its missile stocks, especially considering the potential for external support from allies like Russia and China. Furthermore, Iran’s underground facilities may not only be storage sites but also production centers, meaning that destroying existing missiles doesn’t necessarily prevent future production.
Ultimately, the intelligence suggesting that only a third of Iran’s missile arsenal has been destroyed leaves a considerable portion of the threat intact. This reality contrasts with earlier, more optimistic pronouncements and highlights the long-term and intricate nature of military operations aimed at dismantling a sophisticated missile program. The effectiveness of future operations will likely depend on a more comprehensive understanding of Iran’s entire missile ecosystem, including production capabilities and launch infrastructure, as well as a clear strategy for achieving long-term deniability of Iran’s offensive missile capabilities.