By Matt Underwood The overarching sentiment is that the conflict in Ukraine needs to reach a point where it becomes an unbearable burden for Russia, a strategic objective articulated by President Zelenskyy following recent escalations in attacks. This isn’t just about military victories on the battlefield; it’s about creating a multifaceted pressure that erodes Russia’s capacity and will to sustain the war. The hope is that this sustained pressure will eventually lead to a critical juncture for Russia, forcing a reassessment of its ongoing aggression.
One key pathway to achieving this “untenable” state for Russia revolves around its economic stability and its ability to fund the war effort. The idea is to drain Russia’s financial resources to such an extent that it can no longer sustain the military operations. This economic strangulation, if effective, could trigger a cascade of internal problems, potentially leading to a scenario where Russia, weakened and depleted, finds itself in a precarious position.
Such economic hardship could, in the long run, lead to a significant weakening of Russia’s global standing and internal cohesion. Some envision a future where Russia, stripped of its economic power, might be compelled into a subservient role, perhaps becoming a vassal state to another major power like China. This hypothetical outcome suggests a profound shift in the geopolitical landscape, with Russia losing its autonomy and becoming increasingly dependent on external actors for its survival and influence.
Alternatively, the internal stresses brought about by prolonged conflict and economic decline could manifest as a fragmentation of the Russian state itself. The historical precedent of the Soviet Union’s dissolution and the subsequent breakup of Yugoslavia offers a stark reminder of how large, multi-ethnic states can fracture under immense pressure. A similar disintegration of Russia could, in this perspective, lead to the emergence of several smaller, independent nations.
While the idea of Russia breaking apart might sound dramatic, proponents of this view suggest that it could ultimately benefit the average Russian citizen. The argument is that a smaller, more manageable national structure might lead to a more efficient allocation of resources, improved governance, and ultimately, a higher quality of life for the populace in the long term. This perspective posits that the current vastness and centralized control might be hindering genuine progress and prosperity for the majority.
However, the practicalities of enacting certain measures, such as pressuring Europe to cease buying Russian gas, are acknowledged as being significantly challenging. While the logic of cutting off a major source of revenue for Russia is clear, the immediate economic and energy security concerns for European nations make a complete and immediate embargo highly improbable. The reliance on Russian gas, particularly for certain countries, creates a complex web of dependencies that are not easily untangled.
The input suggests that some European nations might be more resistant to severing ties with Russian energy providers than others. The mention of Hungary and Slovakia specifically points to countries that may have a greater reliance on or a different strategic approach to engaging with Russia, making a unified European stance on energy sanctions a difficult goal to achieve. This highlights the internal divisions within Europe that Russia could potentially exploit to its advantage.
Ultimately, the vision presented is one where sustained external pressure, coupled with internal vulnerabilities, forces Russia to confront the unsustainable nature of its war in Ukraine. The hope is that this untenable situation will compel Russia to withdraw, either through economic collapse, political fragmentation, or a combination of both, thereby bringing an end to the conflict and potentially reshaping the future of Russia and Eastern Europe. The success of this strategy hinges on a sustained and coordinated effort to weaken Russia economically and politically, while also navigating the complex geopolitical realities of international relations.