By John Q. Hosedrinker 
On February 6th, a targeted assassination attempt was made against Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, First Deputy Chief of the GRU, as he visited a private residence without security. The assailant, who meticulously planned the attack during a security shift change, gained entry with an intercom key and concealed their identity before firing shots at the general. Despite a delayed response from security personnel, Alekseyev received first aid and was hospitalized, with conflicting reports emerging regarding his current condition. Subsequently, the suspected shooter was reportedly apprehended in the United Arab Emirates, with an accomplice also detained.
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The whispers surrounding the assassination attempt on a high-ranking Russian general have intensified, revealing a dramatically different scene than initially imagined. Deputy GRU Director Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, a figure reportedly instrumental in orchestrating Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections and the 2018 Novichok poisoning in Salisbury, England, was not in a secure military setting when he was shot multiple times. Instead, the attack occurred while he was visiting his paramour in her apartment. This unexpected detail casts a new light on the incident, suggesting a lapse in security and a highly personal vulnerability exploited by the assailant.
While the initial reports painted a picture of a general under siege, the reality appears to be far more intimate and perhaps, for him, humiliating. Alekseyev, it is understood, was not accompanied by his usual security detail during this private rendezvous. The fact that he was without his bodyguards at a location he visited “rarely” indicates a calculated risk or a profound oversight on his part, especially given his known involvement in sensitive and potentially dangerous operations. The assassin, it seems, was positioned within the apartment building, waiting for this specific, infrequent visit to occur.
This level of precision points towards meticulous planning and extensive intelligence gathering. For an assailant to identify such a specific weakness, prepare for it, and then strike with little warning strongly suggests months of surveillance and dedicated intel work by a team. This wasn’t a random act; it was a carefully executed operation designed to exploit a known personal habit and a predictable security gap. The assailant was seemingly aware of Alekseyev’s visits and the times he would be most exposed.
However, a contrasting, almost darkly humorous, alternative is also considered: that this was a case of sheer, improbable bad luck. In the chaotic landscape of Russia, it’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility that an angry, perhaps intoxicated, individual could have been lurking in the hallways, and Alekseyev simply found himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. This notion, while seemingly less sophisticated, reflects a perception of pervasive disorder and unpredictability within certain circles of Russian society, where even high-profile individuals might fall victim to seemingly random acts of violence.
Regardless of the exact circumstances of the attack, the fact remains that Lieutenant General Alekseyev is no longer in immediate mortal danger, though his full recovery is uncertain. This incident raises profound questions about the wider implications for Russia. It is argued that the country may be on the cusp of a significant increase in such violent events, on a grand scale, reminiscent of the turbulent 1990s following the collapse of the USSR. During that period, a steep economic downturn combined with the reintegration of combat veterans into civilian life led to the proliferation of heavily armed, organized criminal groups capable of and willing to employ violence.
The current trajectory for modern Russia is seen as potentially even more severe. The economic decline is predicted to be steeper than in the post-Soviet era, exacerbated by a more unified European defensive posture and limited investment opportunities due to factors like peak oil usage and demographic challenges. Furthermore, the number of combat veterans is expected to be substantially higher than during the Chechen conflicts, and the proliferation of small arms within Russia is believed to be greater and less controlled than in the USSR. This confluence of factors is expected to fuel a significant surge in crime, particularly from demobilized troops, creating a fertile ground for escalating organized criminal activity and violence.
Adding another layer to the complex situation, the individual’s involvement in sensitive geopolitical events, including the Salisbury poisoning, has led to speculation about the perpetrator. While Russia’s own internal dynamics and potential power struggles are considered, the possibility of foreign intelligence services, particularly the UK’s, seeking retribution for the Salisbury incident has also been raised. The idea of a false flag operation, blaming Ukraine to deflect suspicion, is a scenario that many find plausible, given Ukraine’s existing history of targeting Russian generals.
Compounding the challenges within Russia are deeply rooted public health crises. The widespread issue of HIV and other venereal diseases, coupled with a prevailing culture of toxic masculinity, is highlighted as a significant underlying factor that could exacerbate the potential for societal breakdown. Furthermore, unreliable reporting on health issues, particularly concerning COVID-19, and a generally poor healthcare system outside major urban centers contribute to a bleak outlook. Chronic issues like tuberculosis outbreaks among frontline troops and rodent-borne hemorrhagic fevers, alongside a declining life expectancy, paint a grim picture of the nation’s overall well-being, which in turn could fuel further unrest and violence.
The detainment of a suspect in Dubai in connection with the assassination attempt adds an international dimension to the unfolding narrative. This development suggests that the investigation has reached beyond Russian borders, indicating a potential global network involved in the incident or a desperate attempt to escape justice by fleeing to a foreign locale. The specifics of this detention and the identity of the suspect are crucial pieces of the puzzle that, once revealed, could offer significant clarity on the motives and orchestrators behind this brazen attack. The interconnectedness of this high-stakes drama, from a lover’s apartment in Russia to a detention in Dubai, underscores the complex and often dangerous world of intelligence operations and geopolitical intrigue.