By John Q. Hosedrinker 
A Russian fuel tanker, the Sea Horse, is reportedly en route to Cuba, potentially carrying 200,000 barrels of gasoil and challenging U.S. blockade policies. This development coincides with Russia’s vocal criticism of Washington’s actions, with Foreign Minister Lavrov urging the U.S. to abandon its blockade plans and reiterating support for Cuba’s sovereignty. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been engaged in unofficial discussions with Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, grandson of Raul Castro, about Cuba’s future, indicating a belief within the administration that the elder Castro remains the primary decision-maker.
Read the original article here
It’s quite the development, isn’t it? Reports are surfacing that a ship, widely believed to be carrying Russian fuel, is making its way towards Cuba, and this is a situation that feels remarkably familiar, like watching a scene from a movie we’ve seen before. The estimated arrival is early March, and the cargo is substantial – around 200,000 barrels of oil. Now, to put that into perspective, Cuba typically consumes somewhere in the ballpark of 100,000 to 125,000 barrels of oil daily. They do produce about 30,000 barrels a day from their own fields, but the quality isn’t great, and their refineries are apparently not in the best shape, making that domestic supply a bit of a challenge to process effectively. Without any additional deliveries, analysts are projecting that Cuba could completely exhaust its existing fuel reserves by mid to late March.
This brings up a fascinating point about the nature of the U.S. approach to Cuba. While there’s a long-standing embargo in place, which certainly restricts U.S. business dealings with the island nation, it’s not precisely a naval blockade in the traditional sense. A true blockade would mean preventing all ships, in or out, from reaching Cuba. What the U.S. appears to be doing instead is applying significant political and economic pressure. The idea is that if another country’s ship delivers oil to Cuba, that ship will then be barred from entering U.S. ports, and potentially face tariffs. This strategy seems designed to make potential suppliers think twice.
However, it seems that for nations like Russia and China, they possess a higher tolerance for such economic and political pressure. They’re willing to take that risk and continue to offer assistance to Cuba, perhaps seeing the strategic value or simply adhering to their own international relationships. This particular shipment, while significant for Cuba’s immediate needs, is estimated to only provide fuel for about two days at best, given their daily consumption rate. This suggests that, from Russia’s perspective, it might carry more symbolic weight than a sustained solution to Cuba’s energy crisis.
The narrative here is reminiscent of a historical echo, almost as if history is rhyming, leading us to wonder if this is a deliberate move to challenge the existing U.S. policy. There’s a sense of anticipation, a feeling of waiting to see how this unfolds, like watching a dramatic scene play out at a stop sign, waiting for the next move. The question arises: why this persistent pressure on such a small country? It feels like a continuation of a long-standing geopolitical struggle, a sequel to the Cold War that few seemed to be asking for, yet here we are.
And then, of course, there’s the speculation about the U.S. response. Will this shipment be intercepted? Will there be diplomatic maneuvering? Some comments suggest a belief that certain administrations might not take significant action, citing past behaviors as indicators. There’s a sentiment that perhaps “the check clears” or that a deal is made behind the scenes, allowing the ship to pass. This raises questions about motivations and the potential for political calculations to influence such decisions. It’s a complex web of international relations and economic leverage.
The term “believed to be” also adds a layer of intrigue, implying that certainty isn’t absolute, yet the implications are clear. This situation could be interpreted as a savvy public relations move by Russia, positioning themselves as a supportive partner in the face of U.S. pressure. It highlights Cuba’s dire need for resources and the lengths to which they must go to secure them, even if those resources are arriving in small, perhaps symbolic, quantities that only offer temporary relief. The situation is fraught with the potential for miscalculation, and the historical parallels are hard to ignore, especially given past incidents that have escalated international tensions.
Ultimately, this ship’s journey to Cuba, carrying what is understood to be Russian fuel, represents a direct challenge to the U.S.’s economic and political blockade. It’s a move that underscores Cuba’s precarious energy situation and Russia’s willingness to provide support, regardless of the diplomatic consequences. The world is watching to see how this delicate balance of power and policy will play out, and whether this is just another chapter in a long, complex, and at times, frustrating geopolitical saga.