By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, was killed on Sunday during an operation led by Mexico’s military. This operation triggered a series of violent events across the state of Jalisco and spread to other states, with suspected cartel members blocking roads and setting fires. The US State Department issued a travel advisory urging citizens to shelter in place due to ongoing security operations and related criminal activity.
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The reign of Nemesio ‘el Mencho’ Oseguera Cervantes, the notorious leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has reportedly come to an end. News has emerged of his death during a federal operation, a development that has sent ripples of shock and concern through Mexico and beyond. For years, ‘el Mencho’ was a shadowy figure, orchestrating a vast criminal enterprise that instilled fear and violence across regions. He was, in essence, the mastermind behind the cartel’s operations and logistics, a position he held for decades, often in collaboration with other criminal organizations.
It’s truly remarkable how long ‘el Mencho’ managed to evade capture, given the immense bounty placed on his head and the sheer scale of his illicit activities. His name became synonymous with the drug war in Mexico, appearing consistently in reports and discussions about cartel operations throughout the 2010s. For a long time, he maintained an aura of mystery, almost appearing untouchable, especially as his cartel’s influence grew and expanded, often filling voids left by the downfall of other criminal groups.
The sudden news of his demise, however, has not brought the expected sense of relief without apprehension. Instead, it has plunged cities like Guadalajara into immediate turmoil. Reports indicate that the airport in Guadalajara was taken over by armed individuals, and the city itself has become inflamed, with even a Costco reportedly caught in the crossfire of the ensuing chaos. This eruption of violence is a stark reminder of the power and reach of the CJNG, a group known for its extreme brutality and military-like capabilities.
The question on many minds now is what comes next. The death of such a significant leader rarely leads to a simple resolution; instead, it often triggers a power vacuum, leading to intense rivalries, increased violence, and widespread retaliation. The CJNG is an incredibly powerful entity, not just in terms of its assassins but also its military strength, meaning any succession struggle or attempt by rivals to gain territory could be exceptionally bloody.
There’s a sense among some that this operation, when the government decides to act decisively, demonstrates that such takedowns are indeed possible. However, this also raises the uncomfortable question of why such actions aren’t undertaken more frequently, leading to speculation about the complexities of the government’s will and capacity to combat these powerful cartels. While some might view ‘el Mencho’s’ death as a victory for the world’s safety, others express deep concern for potential retaliatory attacks against civilians.
The fear of reprisal is palpable, especially for prominent political figures like presidential hopeful Claudia Sheinbaum, with many hoping she will be protected. The sheer power of the CJNG means that the aftermath of ‘el Mencho’s’ death is unlikely to be peaceful. It’s a situation that highlights the fragile state of safety in Mexico, a reality that is far from black and white.
The violence in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta following the news underscores the immediate and brutal nature of cartel retaliation. The targeting of civilian infrastructure like airports and businesses is a clear message, a demonstration of their power and their willingness to inflict widespread disruption and fear. This isn’t a Hollywood movie where the good guys always win cleanly; the reality is a messy, dangerous escalation.
This event also prompts thoughts about the broader geopolitical implications. Some wonder if this action by the Mexican government could be a strategic move to maintain distance from potential provocations from figures like former US President Trump, perhaps avoiding reasons for US military intervention. By taking on powerful cartels, Mexico might be choosing what it perceives as the lesser of two evils, aiming to prevent escalations on its own terms.
The question of succession within the CJNG is also critical. Even with the leader gone, the organization is structured to continue. Does he have a second-in-command ready to step in, or will the ensuing power struggle lead to even greater fragmentation and violence? The continuity of command within cartels can sometimes be more robust than anticipated, making the notion of a “new Narcos series” a grim possibility, albeit a fictionalized one.
Ultimately, the death of ‘el Mencho’ is a significant event, marking the end of an era defined by his influence. However, it is crucial to temper any sense of triumph with the stark reality of the violence and instability that is likely to follow. The immediate aftermath is already demonstrating the cartel’s capacity for ruthless retaliation, and the long-term consequences of this power struggle remain uncertain and deeply concerning for the innocent civilians caught in the crossfire.