By John Q. Hosedrinker 
President Zelensky expressed optimism regarding the potential end of the war in Ukraine, suggesting it could conclude in the first half of 2026. This projection coincides with Cyprus’s EU presidency, during which negotiations with European partners and the United States have reached a new stage, emphasizing the EU’s central role in the process. Recent talks in Paris and the “Coalition of the Willing” summit signal progress, with a deal reportedly “90% ready,” potentially involving security guarantees including a U.S.-backed, European-led force and ceasefire monitoring. These developments suggest a concerted effort to bring the nearly four-year full-scale invasion to an end.
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Zelensky says negotiations reach ‘new milestone,’ suggesting war could end in the first half of 2026. This announcement, frankly, is a complex mix of hope and reality, isn’t it? It suggests progress, but the road to peace in Ukraine is paved with many layers of complexity. The declaration comes at a time when the world, and especially Ukraine, desperately craves an end to the conflict. However, the path forward appears fraught with potential pitfalls and challenges that go beyond simple pronouncements.
For starters, a critical question looms: can any agreement with Russia be truly trusted? History, particularly recent history, gives us reason to pause. There’s a valid concern that any peace deal could simply be a strategic pause for Russia – a chance to rearm, regroup, and potentially launch another offensive. Any lasting peace, it seems, hinges on Ukraine’s security, perhaps best ensured through membership in NATO or the EU. These aren’t just well-wishes; they involve firm, undeniable defense obligations. Without such guarantees, the risks remain immense. It’s hard to imagine Russia accepting that as a fair deal.
Another elephant in the room is the issue of occupied territories. Will Russia retain its hold on the 19% of Ukrainian land it currently controls? What about the three million people living there, who are already facing Russification? If Russia gets to keep what it’s conquered, recovers its economy, and is welcomed back into the international community, can anyone realistically call them the losers? Putin may have hoped to achieve all his goals, but it appears to be nothing more than a failed campaign.
Then there’s the monumental task of rebuilding Ukraine. The damage is estimated to be over half a trillion dollars, and the idea of using Russia’s frozen assets to fund the recovery seems just. It’s only a starting point, even then, this still only covers a portion of what’s needed. But what if there are no guarantees for the future?
The composition of the negotiations themselves raises another crucial point. The talks are, understandably, between Ukraine, the US, and a coalition of the willing, but Russia isn’t at the table. How can peace be negotiated without the very party perpetrating the invasion? Many see this as largely public relations, a hopeful statement rather than a solid indication of actual progress. It’s hard to imagine, with the headlines, that Russia is actually interested in ending the war.
Furthermore, it’s fair to question what, specifically, this “new milestone” involves. Is there any compromise on territory? Any willingness to concede on Russia’s part? And what, if any, guarantees are on the table to make sure it lasts? Without these details, the optimism feels, at best, premature.
Of course, the dynamics of international relations play a significant role. The potential for shifts in global alliances and the actions of powerful nations like the US also muddy the waters. A question on many lips is whether the US might abandon Ukraine as part of a larger deal. The idea of the US and Russia possibly partnering up seems like a dangerous possibility to many. The lack of obligations in current affairs leaves many feeling uneasy.
The economic factors can’t be ignored. Will sanctions on Russia be lifted? Is there a possibility for Russia to be trading on the world market? All of this plays into Russia’s economic collapse. They’re running on fumes now.
Ultimately, while the hope for peace is universal, the path towards it is far from clear. Russia needs to see a “win” to save face, even if it’s a compromised one. Ukraine needs guarantees of security and a path to rebuild. The world needs to be vigilant, ready to respond to any renewed aggression.