By John Q. Hosedrinker 
As of January 1, 2026, China ceased all electricity imports from Russia, including the minimum contractual obligation. This decision was primarily due to the high export prices, which exceeded domestic Chinese rates, rendering further purchases economically unfavorable. The supply contract, signed in 2012 with Russia’s Inter RAO, was slated to run until 2037 and encompassed roughly 4 billion kWh annually. While exports are unlikely to resume in 2026, the Russian Ministry of Energy has not completely ruled out a future resumption if China expresses interest.
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China has stopped buying power from Russia, and it’s a development that’s making waves, but let’s be clear: this isn’t a story about morality. It’s about economics, plain and simple.
The heart of the matter is the price of Russian electricity. It’s gone up. And why? Because of a confluence of factors, including successful attacks on the Russian oil industry and grid infrastructure by Ukraine, which has driven up export costs. For the first time in January 2026, the cost of Russian energy exceeded what China could generate domestically. China isn’t going to buy energy that costs more than what they can make themselves. They’re opting for the cheaper alternative.
This is undoubtedly good news, but it’s crucial to understand its origin. The situation reflects the effectiveness of Ukraine’s strategies, often referred to as “kinetic sanctions,” rather than any sudden shift in China’s geopolitical stance. This distinction is important.
It’s about interests, not ideals. Countries, including China, primarily operate in their own self-interest. If they can get energy cheaper elsewhere, they will.
The scale of the stopped imports, while symbolic, is not particularly large. The contract was only for a small amount of electricity, around 4 billion kWh per year, worth approximately 16 billion rubles annually. Every little bit helps.
And it seems the price increase is having severe consequences for Russia’s economy. This shift in China’s buying habits is indicative of how shallow their allegiance to Russia is. China has been supporting North Korea for decades.
This is a testament to the success of Ukraine’s efforts in targeting Russian energy infrastructure. They’re not buying Russian energy because it’s no longer the cheapest option. If Russia isn’t the most affordable, China will look elsewhere. China is also all in on renewables, which will further slow demand from Russian products long-term.
The focus should be on how Ukraine’s military strategy is bearing fruit. It’s a significant outcome. Russia’s strategic move to strengthen their currency has been affected.
The situation also highlights the evolving global landscape. The world is changing quickly, and as China increasingly focuses on its own economic interests, this is an indication of a shift. The US isn’t the only global power anymore. China’s growing influence on a global scale cannot be ignored.
Other countries are also starting to make trade deals with China, and this may accelerate the move away from countries like Russia. The EU pledge to end Russian gas imports by the end of 2027 illustrates this decoupling from Russia. The Russians have very little fuel and no way to get it to anyone. As a consequence, prices are rising.
This is not a reflection of a moral change, but a shift in economic interests. It’s a win for Ukraine.