By Matt Underwood Canada’s Military Has Modeled Hypothetical US Invasion, Reports Say, and honestly, who’s surprised? It’s almost a given that any military, anywhere, worth its salt, is going to have contingency plans, “what if” scenarios, and exercises designed to prepare for a wide range of possibilities. Forget about any particular president or political climate; this sort of planning is just standard operating procedure, has been for decades, and likely will continue to be.
These “what if” scenarios probably have been around for a long time, quietly tucked away, and simply updated periodically to keep them current with the times. It’s like updating a software program; you need to account for new technologies, shifts in troop numbers, and changing global dynamics. The U.S. has war plans for invading just about every major country on Earth, and Canada isn’t an exception. Canada, just like the British Empire before, has had its own plans, such as Defence Scheme 1 and War Plan Red.
The sudden attention this topic is receiving might be due to recent headlines and events, making it a bit of a clickbait situation. Or, possibly, there’s been a recent, and perhaps more “on the nose” update to these plans, reflecting current geopolitical realities. The reality is that competent militaries plan for every eventuality. It’s part of the training, an exercise to teach young officers, cadets, and the troops about strategy and maneuvers. There are even plans for theoretical scenarios like a zombie outbreak.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t necessarily news. Most countries routinely have these exercises. Of course, the U.S. has its own plans for how it might react to a hypothetical Canadian invasion. This is about being prepared, acknowledging that the world can be unpredictable. Canada, particularly given its proximity and relationship with the U.S., has always understood the need to consider worst-case scenarios.
The implications are something else to consider. The idea of an American invasion, given the intertwined nature of the U.S. and Canadian economies, would be disastrous for many American businesses and for the global economy. An armed invasion would likely evaporate trillions of dollars in capital in the U.S. It would also lead to extensive, potentially crippling, sanctions and other economic responses. There would be a massive brain drain as high-end talent leaves for safer pastures.
Many Canadians live close to the American border and, like anyone in such a position, it’s natural to have a sense of unease. It’s understandable to consider how to prepare for such an event, from securing supplies like water and canned goods to considering the acquisition of firearms. This situation brings to the forefront the question of how much dependence there is on American infrastructure, such as internet and social media platforms.
Hypothetically, an invasion wouldn’t be a simple conquest. It would almost certainly trigger a prolonged insurgency, a form of guerrilla warfare. Canada’s vast size, high civilian gun ownership rates, and large number of isolated areas would make a protracted struggle difficult and costly for any invader. It’s the kind of scenario that fuels Red Dawn-style jokes. The reality, though, is a chilling and complicated consideration of what the best course of action would be.
The strategic reality of such a situation would be complex. The U.S. would face major challenges, including the need to suppress a determined resistance and the potential loss of international standing. Canada’s response wouldn’t be a simple matter of conventional warfare; it would involve a range of asymmetric tactics, including cyber warfare, sabotage, and the mobilization of civilian resources and skills.
The defense isn’t about the military alone; it’s also about economics. Any U.S. invasion would hurt businesses operating in Canada and impact a significant portion of Canadian wealth invested in U.S. companies. Other countries might offer exile and right of return, and a lot of high-end talent would flee the country, leaving the U.S. with a loss of international reputation and influence.
Of course, the U.S. has its own problems to deal with, the greatest of which is the political situation within the country. The U.S. has a strong history of getting involved in other countries’ affairs, making the hypothetical even more real. If things were to devolve into civil war, the likelihood of a Canadian invasion would drop significantly. Instead, you’d likely see the country bracing for an influx of refugees.
The entire idea is unsettling, and it’s natural to feel anxious. This isn’t just about military strategy; it’s about the security of families, communities, and a way of life. It’s important to remember that such planning is just a modeling exercise. The U.S. and Canada share a border and a close relationship, but in an uncertain world, planning for all eventualities is simply a matter of prudent defense. Canada’s commitment to standing guard is one thing, and the future is something else entirely.