By Matt Underwood Moscow’s strategy to weaponize votes from occupied Ukrainian territories against upcoming elections, as suggested by President Zelenskyy, is a troubling development. It’s a classic example of how Russia operates, employing manipulative tactics to undermine democratic processes and further its own agenda. This isn’t just a hypothetical concern; it’s a calculated move designed to exploit the situation on the ground.
The core issue here is the legitimacy of votes cast in areas under Russian occupation. With Russian control, the integrity of the voting process is fundamentally compromised. How can one ensure free and fair elections when voters are subjected to coercion, intimidation, and potential manipulation by the occupying force? It’s a question of basic democratic principles, and the answer is clear: votes from these territories cannot be trusted. Allowing these votes to count would be a blatant undermining of the election’s fairness and overall legitimacy.
The situation mirrors Russia’s long history of employing tactics that resemble “DARVO,” or Deny, Attack, Reverse Victim and Offender. In this case, Russia could be expected to deny any wrongdoing, blame Ukraine for the situation, attack critics who question the vote’s integrity, and potentially portray itself as the victim of unfair treatment. This strategy is designed to sow confusion, distort the narrative, and deflect responsibility. It’s a cynical play, designed to create a sense of ambiguity around the election results, regardless of the outcome.
The potential implications are significant. Russia’s insistence on including votes from occupied areas could serve multiple purposes. First, it could increase their chances of influencing the election’s outcome if the occupying regime were to count them or manipulate them. Second, it can drag the elections’ legitimacy into question, opening the door for Russia to claim the elections are a sham, thereby further destabilizing the country. Russia understands that controlling territory and then demanding that those under their control vote to undermine the election is a potent strategy for sabotage.
This isn’t just about the upcoming elections; it’s about Russia’s broader strategic goals in Ukraine. Russia has no interest in peace until it achieves its objectives. Counting votes from occupied territories is a move to exert power and control. It’s part of a larger plan, a long game, and one that is played by the Russians very well. It’s a method to prolong the conflict, weaken Ukraine, and potentially destabilize the country’s government. This is a tactic and a pattern we’ve seen before, a way to delegitimize the entire electoral process.
The response from Ukraine is crucial. Excluding these compromised areas is the only responsible course of action. Accepting those votes would be the equivalent of giving up on democratic principles. It’s a difficult choice, one that may be met with resistance from Russia and its supporters. Yet, for Ukraine, it’s necessary to maintain the integrity of its democracy.
This situation presents challenges beyond the election itself. The loss of Ukrainian voters who fled their homes, either to Europe or elsewhere, complicates the picture. Counting votes becomes extremely difficult, and this is yet another factor contributing to the overall complexity of free and fair elections during wartime.
In this context, the world should see this as another example of Russia’s aggressive and manipulative tactics. As history proves, Moscow has consistently shown that it is not interested in fair play or respecting international norms. The focus should remain on supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and its right to self-determination.