By Matt Underwood Zelenskyy’s potential refusal to cede territory in Donetsk, supposedly for a “special economic zone,” raises some serious red flags, and I can certainly see why Kyiv might be reluctant. The whole idea smells fishy, frankly.
The core issue is this: the US, potentially under a new administration, is suggesting that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the areas they currently control in Donetsk. The carrot offered is a vague “special economic zone.” The stick? Well, it seems to be the potential loss of US support. And if you ask me, that’s a bad trade. Why would Ukraine give up strategically vital defensive positions for something so nebulous, especially when Russia is involved?
The proposal, as it’s described, hinges on Russian forces agreeing not to enter the demilitarized zone. Now, forgive my cynicism, but trusting Vladimir Putin on anything feels like a gamble at best. Remember, the only reason these areas are militarized in the first place is because of Russian aggression. To remove Ukrainian defenses and hand over territory to a “special economic zone” seems to pave the way for further attacks.
What’s really in it for Ukraine? The US, or rather, the current administration pushing this, is not exactly a bastion of reliability. Historical parallels, like the 1938 appeasement of Hitler at Czechoslovakia, are being drawn. It’s a bit alarming to consider that giving up the most important fortifications might be akin to the Sudetes.
The phrase “special economic zone” is another point of concern. These zones are often touted as economic miracle cures, but they rarely deliver. The UK’s Brexit promises of “special economic zones” outside the EU are a perfect example. They were largely empty promises. It feels like the same language is being recycled, and it’s hard to believe it will benefit Ukraine.
The underlying suspicion is that the US wants Ukraine to relinquish leverage. Some fear that Trump is essentially doing what Putin wants. His intentions are questionable, especially considering the mineral wealth of the region. This is likely a grab for resources dressed up as a peace deal. The US should not be leading these negotiations. If they were serious, they would have insisted on the “special economic zone” being under western control.
And let’s not forget the potential for instability. Trump is someone who tends to make promises he doesn’t keep. What happens if Ukraine pulls back and then Putin decides he wants more? Or if the US abandons the agreement and leaves Ukraine high and dry? History is full of broken treaties and unreliable allies.
This is a scenario in which the potential benefits of the “special economic zone” are unclear. There’s no guarantee of investment in a demilitarized area, which could, instead, be a prime target for Russia. This deal has little to offer to the Ukrainians, and that’s not something to consider lightly. If the US and their proposals are a liability, then it’s likely that Ukraine will refuse the proposal.
Many believe that Trump is more interested in making deals than protecting Ukraine. He’s prioritizing his own business interests and pleasing Putin over the needs of the Ukrainian people. And he doesn’t seem to be too concerned about any ramifications. His promises mean little and they should not be trusted.
Ukraine must be firm. The only way to move forward is to clearly state the country’s maximal demands and refuse to concede ground to the demands of Russia and Trump. This is not the time to be flexible. The current situation is demoralizing for the Ukrainian forces and the people. And it’s only a matter of time before US support is withdrawn.
I do not believe that the US is playing fair with Ukraine, and that there are too many variables in play for it to be something Ukraine should seriously consider. And if it’s the current path that will be taken, then it is important for the country to do what is necessary to stand strong and not allow for the current state to continue. The current US world order is done and this is more like the end game.
Ultimately, the best peace deal may be one where Russia withdraws from all occupied territories save Crimea and Donbass, which it annexes, so long as European troops are on the ground.