By Matt Underwood As Germany appeals to China for peace, Zelenskyy says Beijing has no interest in ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, it feels like a rather stark juxtaposition, doesn’t it? Germany, a key player in Europe, is making diplomatic overtures to China, hoping to leverage its influence to bring the war to an end. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy, the leader of Ukraine, is bluntly stating his belief that China has no real desire to see the conflict resolved. It’s like two entirely different readings of the same situation.
The core of the issue, and the reason Zelenskyy’s perspective resonates, seems to be China’s vested interest. They’re making serious money selling to Russia, a fact that can’t be ignored. The moment the war ends, China might face joint pressure from the EU and the U.S. This isn’t just about trade; it’s about China’s broader strategic goals. They see an advantage in a weakened but still reliant Russia. This allows them to benefit from discounted Russian energy, keeps the EU distracted, and, importantly, delays any significant pressure on China itself. China’s strategy seems to be all about playing the long game.
Consider this: if China were to abruptly end the war, what would be the immediate consequences? Would they gain unfettered access to Western markets? Would they be shielded from sanctions and tariffs? The answer, at least from the perspective being articulated, is likely no. The war serves their interests. It keeps their opponents occupied, offers economic benefits, and allows China to strengthen its position on the global stage. It’s a harsh reality, but it paints a picture of China strategically maneuvering for its long-term goals.
Then, there’s the matter of who benefits from the war’s continuation. It’s not just China. The war’s prolongation also serves the interests of countries that stand to profit from military spending. European nations, like Germany, are increasing defense spending significantly. The war acts as an economic booster, fueling the defense industry and, sadly, making peace a less attractive prospect in the short term. It’s a complex web of motivations, but it all comes down to the same thing – self-interest. The US under Biden also benefits.
Zelenskyy, it seems, sees through the surface level diplomatic efforts. He understands China’s priorities and the realities of the situation. It’s hard to imagine him trusting China, especially when its actions seem more geared towards maintaining a strategic advantage than seeking genuine peace. China isn’t going to launch an unhinged invasion of Taiwan like Russia did in Ukraine. It’s playing the long game.
The situation is a grim one. The war has morphed into something more than just a military conflict. It’s now an economic opportunity, a geopolitical chess game, and a tragic human cost. It seems that China’s primary goals are to ensure Russia emerges strong enough to stand, but weak enough to still be dependent on China. A breakdown of U.S.-EU coordination on Chinese sanctions/tariffs, and continued broad stability for global markets are also beneficial to China’s goals.
The longer the war drags on, the more Ukraine bleeds. And if Zelenskyy were to agree to terms that give up territory, he’d be seen as a leader who capitulated. Also, it’s not just Zelenskyy; it’s the Ukrainian people. They have no intention of surrendering. A vulnerable Ukraine is also bad for Europe. It would give Russia a clear path to places like Moldova and the Baltics. The EU’s unwillingness to commit fully, to send every weapon and impose all sanctions, suggests they are not acting on behalf of the Ukrainians. They want a strong Ukraine, but not at the cost of the economic benefits of the war.
The war’s complexities also reveal that this is not a traditional conflict. There are accusations of targeted attacks, drone strikes, and the immense cost of each strike compared to the lives lost. This conflict has turned into a bloody financial opportunity.
It also comes down to the lack of trust. Trust in the US under Trump and distrust in China. The EU and the US need to coordinate, and it seems difficult.
So, in the face of these competing interests, it’s hard to see how China would actively push for peace when the current situation benefits them so substantially. This assessment suggests a cynical, yet perhaps realistic, view of international relations. While diplomacy continues, and countries like Germany try to find a resolution, it seems Zelenskyy has a clear-eyed view of what China wants from this war, and it is not, at least for now, its end.