By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Ukraine is collaborating with its partners on three key documents to facilitate the end of the war, encompassing a peace framework, security guarantees, and reconstruction efforts. The revised peace framework, now with 20 points, reflects the interests of Ukraine, Europe, and the world. Security guarantees, essential to the discussions, are being developed with the U.S. and European partners, potentially including measures akin to Article 5. Furthermore, addressing the country’s future is done by planning for reconstruction.
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Peace Deal, Security Guarantees, Reconstruction — Zelensky Unveils 3-Track Plan as Talks Intensify
The current diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine are being built on a three-pronged strategy, as President Zelensky has revealed. This plan, unveiled as talks with various partners and allies intensify, focuses on a framework for a peace agreement, robust security guarantees, and a comprehensive plan for reconstruction. It’s a complex, multi-layered approach, reflecting the intricate realities of the conflict and the desire to secure a lasting peace for Ukraine.
The first element, the peace agreement framework, has undergone revisions. Originally based on a 28-point draft proposed by the U.S. and Russia, the current version is now streamlined to 20 points. This updated framework is intended to be a flexible document, capable of evolving to reflect the interests of Ukraine, the wider European community, and the global community as a whole. Its goal is to provide the foundation for a lasting peace, addressing the core issues at the heart of the conflict.
The second critical component of the plan focuses on security guarantees for Ukraine. This is an area where conversations are particularly active, with Kyiv working closely with both Washington and European allies. The importance of these guarantees is central to any potential peace deal. There is an acknowledgment that the U.S. is not yet prepared to offer NATO membership to Ukraine. Instead, the focus is on building effective security guarantees through the “Coalition of the Willing,” notably with the crucial backing of the United States. Discussions are revolving around guarantees that would be approved by Congress. These guarantees should be substantial, like Article 5 of the NATO treaty, but the details are still in the process of being worked out.
The third pillar of Zelensky’s plan is the reconstruction of Ukraine. This is seen as a vital element, even as the war rages on. The effort to rebuild is seen as essential for Ukraine’s future. It’s a signal of hope and a commitment to looking ahead, even in the midst of the ongoing conflict. This focus on rebuilding demonstrates a commitment to building a better future, regardless of the challenges that still remain.
Diplomatic efforts are intensifying as this plan is put into motion. Zelensky has held high-level talks with key figures, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, EU officials, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Ukraine is working with its European partners to present a unified front. The U.S. is urging faster progress in negotiations. The National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov visited Washington to fine-tune the U.S.-backed proposal.
However, despite these intensified talks, it is important to acknowledge the obstacles that still exist. Moscow continues to refuse to compromise on some of its core demands, particularly regarding the territory it currently occupies. The situation regarding territory is a continued focus in the talks. Also, some European leaders have expressed frustration over being excluded from initial U.S.–Russian contacts. While the goal is to find a path to peace, the road ahead is clearly complex.
One of the most sensitive topics revolves around the question of security guarantees. While the US is the main focus, this question is complicated by the possibility of future Russian aggression. NATO membership, a traditional security guarantee, is off the table for now. Alternative security arrangements are being discussed, and the key will be to find a balance that provides credible security without escalating the conflict. Some have suggested that a model similar to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, could be adopted.
The war has changed the nature of warfare. In today’s landscape, a well-equipped and well-trained army, along with a significant stockpile of weapons, is seen as the truest guarantee of security. The potential for a frozen conflict, similar to the situation in Crimea, remains a concern, making any peace deal a difficult balancing act.
In the case that Ukraine is given US security guarantees, this could include the Iron Dome.
The situation is further complicated by the political landscape. Some reports suggest that certain parties within the U.S. might be hesitant to fully support Ukraine, thus creating concerns about any potential peace deal.
Territorial disputes, particularly the status of Donbas and Crimea, continue to be significant challenges. The prospect of Ukraine ceding territory is a sensitive subject, and there have been discussions of other possible solutions, like allowing Ukraine to become a US territory. These ideas would present numerous challenges.
Other challenges include securing guarantees from international organizations and other countries, who have not been at war on a large scale in decades. There are also concerns over Russia’s refusal to compromise and how the United States’ and other nations’ guarantees will be perceived by Putin and Russia.
The path toward peace is filled with difficult choices. For Ukraine, it is about securing its future, protecting its people, and rebuilding its nation. It will involve difficult compromises and delicate negotiations. However, with the three-track plan, Ukraine is showing it is actively pursuing a path towards peace.