By John Q. Hosedrinker 
In his New Year’s Eve speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his commitment to reunifying China and Taiwan, a self-governing island that China claims as its territory. This statement followed intense Chinese military drills around Taiwan, simulating a blockade and involving a significant number of warplanes, which were seen by analysts as a response to recent US arms sales to Taiwan. Xi’s speech also emphasized China’s progress in technological advancements and cultural exports while highlighting the importance of Taiwan’s eventual integration into the “One China” policy. Furthermore, Xi mentioned China’s economic growth and highlighted key multilateral conferences hosted by China in 2023.
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Xi Jinping vows to reunify China and Taiwan in New Year’s Eve speech – Reunification ‘is unstoppable’, says Chinese president. Well, here we are again, another year, another New Year’s Eve speech, and another reiteration of China’s long-standing desire to reunify with Taiwan. It’s a bit like a broken record, isn’t it? Though I suppose that’s just the nature of international diplomacy, filled with repeated talking points and statements of intent.
It’s true, this isn’t exactly breaking news. Xi Jinping has been voicing similar sentiments in his New Year addresses for a while now. The official line has been consistent: reunification is a historical inevitability, a “trend of the times.” The question, of course, isn’t whether it’s on the agenda, but how it will be pursued. Will it be a peaceful, negotiated settlement, or something more… forceful?
The potential ramifications of any action taken are quite staggering. Any sort of invasion or even a severe blockade could have catastrophic effects on the global economy. The economic disruptions would dwarf those seen during the 2001 and 2008 recessions or even the COVID-19 pandemic. And the impact on the lives of everyday people, both in Taiwan and around the world, would be immense.
The reality is that “reunification” is a loaded term here. Taiwan has been an independent, self-governing entity for decades. It’s not like a fractured state waiting to be stitched back together; it is a separate nation. To achieve their goals, China would need to essentially “invade” Taiwan. That’s the hard truth of the situation, no matter how China chooses to frame it.
Many people are quite understandably skeptical about the sincerity of China’s intentions. After what happened in Hong Kong, with the erosion of its autonomy, there’s little reason for the Taiwanese to trust Beijing’s promises. Moreover, the world’s general wariness of China’s growing power and influence has, to some extent, grown.
The timing of these statements is also worth considering. Some believe that China is more likely to act while the current U.S. administration is in power, which they view as weak or distracted. While any talk of future actions is speculative, it’s clear that the geopolitical landscape plays a huge role in the calculus of every nation.
The situation in Ukraine also weighs heavily on the context of this issue. Russia’s actions have emboldened autocrats and created a sense of instability. The lack of a decisive response from the West to Putin’s aggression might well be perceived by China as a sign that they could also get away with something similar.
Another factor is the potential impact of a change in leadership in the United States. Some are concerned that a potential change in the U.S. administration could encourage China, should the new leader be viewed as more sympathetic or less committed to defending Taiwan. The timing of this, as some have noted, may well be more than coincidental.
The potential for a global economic crisis is a major concern. Taiwan is home to TSMC, a leading manufacturer of semiconductors, which are vital components in everything from smartphones to cars to advanced military equipment. Any disruption to TSMC’s operations would be devastating, and could have serious global repercussions.
Of course, the fact that this is such a prominent discussion point every year is not a coincidence. Every year this gets brought up, and every year it is discussed. The key question is whether or not these actions will continue to be a threat that is discussed or if they will become actions with physical consequences.
The hope, of course, is that cooler heads will prevail. A peaceful resolution, through dialogue and mutual respect, is the only acceptable outcome. Focusing on improving China internally, fostering positive international relations, and leaving Taiwan to determine its own future would be a far better course of action.
There are many variables that go into these discussions. The historical context, international pressure, and the economic landscape all weigh on the situation. The world is watching and waiting to see what happens.