By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The US labor market experienced unexpected growth in November, adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding economists’ expectations, though the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%. Prior jobs growth figures were revised downward, and the government shutdown caused delays and concerns about data accuracy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed skepticism about the data due to the shutdown’s impact, as well as the effects of the Trump administration’s immigration policies. Furthermore, the report came amidst significant changes to the Bureau of Labor Statistics including a recent firing of the BLS commissioner and a drop in staff members.
Read the original article here
US lost 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 in November, according to delayed data. Alright, so let’s unpack this, shall we? The headline figures are out, and they paint a rather mixed picture, to put it mildly. We’re talking about a significant job loss in October, a staggering 105,000 positions gone. Then, we see a supposed recovery in November, with 64,000 jobs added. But here’s the kicker – this data is delayed, which immediately raises a red flag. Delayed data often means a deeper dive to ensure accuracy, but it can also raise questions about transparency and potential manipulation.
This pattern, where initial reports are later revised downward, is quite concerning, to be honest. It’s almost as if the initial, more optimistic numbers are released to create a certain narrative, and then the reality – which is often less rosy – comes to light later. We’ve seen it happen before, and it understandably breeds distrust. It makes you wonder what’s truly going on beneath the surface of these numbers.
There’s a palpable sense of skepticism surrounding these figures, and it’s not without reason. It seems like the mood among people doesn’t necessarily align with the optimistic picture that some are trying to portray. It’s hard to ignore the feeling that things aren’t as peachy as some would have you believe.
The fact that the numbers are potentially being viewed with skepticism by influential figures like Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, really speaks volumes. If even the key players are approaching the numbers with a grain of salt, it’s a pretty strong indicator that there’s more to the story than meets the eye.
It’s also worth pointing out that many of the new jobs created in November are likely seasonal holiday hires. This means they are temporary and might disappear once the holiday season ends, adding another layer of complexity to the job market analysis. This influx of seasonal work is a regular thing, but it’s still important to understand the true underlying trends.
The economic landscape seems to be particularly rough for many industries. Anecdotally, people are reporting job listings being scarce, unless you’re in healthcare or sales. And even these sectors might not be immune from the economic shifts. In the utilities sector, there’s an interesting exception with some reports showing growth, but other industries seem to be shrinking.
The rise in part-time employment for economic reasons is another worrying trend. The fact that many people are working part-time because they can’t find full-time work is a sign of underlying weakness in the job market, and suggests a broader economic concern. Along with this is a concerning jump in the U6, a broader measure of unemployment, from 8% to 8.7%. The U6 considers discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, so a rise here is another sign of trouble.
There is a sense that things could become even tougher. There’s a lot of talk about potential layoffs in white-collar jobs. The possibility of a disappointing holiday sales season and the rise of automation are also concerning. Automation, in particular, poses a huge risk to many jobs.
The downward revisions in previous months and the scarcity of job listings, combined with the other trends mentioned, don’t paint a very optimistic picture. With more and more companies moving to automation, job losses may continue to grow as well.
It is interesting to note the comments about the role of government funding cuts, specifically in the area of medical research. A cut in funding can lead to layoffs, which in turn leads to negative impacts on research. It’s a reminder of how interconnected the different sectors of the economy truly are.
Ultimately, it’s important to remember that these are just the initial numbers, and there’s a strong likelihood that they will be revised. Considering the trend of downward revisions we have seen, it’s not unreasonable to approach these numbers with a bit of caution, and a healthy dose of skepticism.